I was just trying to give everyone an idea... Fall of 2023 could be a slight stretch, depending on PBS and it’s implementation and scheduling rules. I still think that it is likely. If we are going for my absolute best guess on RJ’s... 95 E175’s😂😂😂 I hope we blow these numbers out of the water, obviously. In a few short months we quickly went from the gold plan to the turd brown version. Honestly, I am most likely giving you best case, but the likely outcome. Thanks for your input 9mm, you may very well end up right. 🍻 6 months around here is difficult, 6 years probably impossible!

22 plus years in.....Like no ever time before, 6 days is hard to guess. Getting so close to the end. I am now able to see what those guys that were close to the end when I started saw. Trying my damndest not to just go in to cruise mode

Delta management said recently there were talks of interviews starting back up end of 2021. All of the LCCs are also talking about interviews and hiring. What you’re saying about hiring in 2024 seems way off from everyone else.

Somewhere between 12.5 percent furlough and hiring in 2024 is the range of guessing around here.

All from one person.

You’re saying that seems inconsistent or just such a wide range that it is meaningless?

I say it’s both...


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We just had a hundred plus basically retire which saved furloughs along with the incentive leaves (thanks to those taking them), so we do not have any retirements for a while, and no growth, so what would drive our need to hire?

199-201 planes summer of 2021, 228-230 summer of 2022, and 230-235 summer of 2023..... and you think we are hiring 😂😂😂. I want some of that smoke! Single fleet and closing SFO will save the company around 350 pilots. That means we are adequately staffed most likely through 2023 . Do you know how many pilots are still out on leaves? More then 200 just on the bus! No one is hiring, most should be smarter then this, most!

Sorry for the random hijack, does anyone know in Crew Access what the aircraft letters stand for? 9EP, 9RP, and 9WP. EP is ETOPS? RP? WP?

If SFO closes without an opening of a Boeing base, LAX will become a real crap show. LAX Boeing is already going to be bad as LAX 320 closes, imagine SFO 320 going away at a similar rate.

The last down cycle we not only furloughed but then it was 4 years until we hired again. This down cycle seems to be just getting underway. It is allowing conversion to a single fleet without the need for a training bubble. The last down cycle we had no ejets to take over for mainline. When they talk about coming out of a down cycle stronger they definitely do not mean bigger in terms of pilots. The increase in asm’s from 320 to 900ER/Max is what they mean by growth.

I disagree, seniority is always the gold standard. If you choose to commute why not go to the largest base with more mainline frequency, more vacation days and more open time? And let’s not forget the emerald children will always have the best flying. LA will find an equilibrium between the locals vs the commuters in the next few years. I think there has been some panic bidding from the bus guys as of lately.