They won’t. They’ll live with the attrition. Are you leaving? You said no. A solid 1/3 of the airline is pretty much capped out at 12th yr pay. That crowd is staying (though I had 2 senior to me leave). Next is the crowd that the new contract will try to get to stay (though some will still leave), the mid seniority crowd of 5-9 years. 4 yrs or less? Revolving door. AS will have to sell its bases (PDX and ANC being sole major pax carrier bases) and its large SEA base as reasons to come and stay here. Sounds like they’ve been doing that already. I wouldn’t be surprised if one day it goes to zip code hiring.

My point of reference was a "plausible" contract. I can't envision these people going out on a limb or doing anything visionary. They're looking at (industry average -15%) as their baseline. If they really need to they might do +15%, but massive schedule flexibility, part-time options, or massive bonuses ala AA WO I think are way too far off their cognitive reservation. They'd shrink first.

The problem with shrinking is that you cannot control it. Departures will inspire others, worsen QOL for those who stay, and soon you'll have a death spiral on your hands.

I think Alaska pilots like you and Joe need to adjust your thoughts about management. They may be shrewd, but they are not self-destructive. Making management understand that having a work and pay environment that meets or exceeds the big 3 is vital for the airline in this pilot market. It's mutually beneficial.

My career plans are none of your business.

Also, I find it hilarious that the guy who finds himself in the minority opinion all the time thinks he has the sentiments of the pilot group figured out.

Be careful with expectations and this airline.

Although AS is a 90 year old airline, as late as 2013, it only had about 1400 pilots. In essence, a legacy airline in name, but really, only a small, punching above its weight, "regional" airline in nature, who historically, has shrewdly used the "Alaska Discount" secret sauce to keep its pilots in check.

In all the difficult periods AS has been through, the one trump card they've always had, is a good supply of PNW, and West Coast pilots with a strong desire to work for "That Great PNW Airline" - Alaska Airlines.

I believe this has allowed them to push the boundaries (in their favor) of the management/pilot relationship, because for the longest while, no matter how bad it got in the eyes of their pilots, AS knew that the great majority would always stay.

The unprecedented attrition these days however, brought about by the push of a deteriorating QOL for their pilots, as well as the pull of unprecedented employment opportunities elsewhere, has resulted in a paradigm shift, and it seems as if AS is having a hard time coming to grips with this.

Whether they are truly sincere in the current resumption of negotiations with the union, or, it turns out that it was simply a smokescreen to get them through the summer flying (or up to the point when we're in a recession), will tell us how much of a mindshift they've undergone when it comes to dealing with their pilots.

It is obvious what the correct thing to do in this current environment is.... I just hope that they don't cut off their nose, to spite their face.

Yes I've been pointing that out for a while. I think anybody who talks to FO's or has friends who are FO's can see that playing out. A line pilot right now probably has a better sense of resignations 8 weeks out than the CP office.

I've concluded they're not as shrewd as I once thought. They are very much good at travelling in their well-worn rut but seem to have trouble going off that path... even when it's starting to look like the bridge is out and maybe they should try the ford instead. The ford is harder but it doesn't involve a long drop into the water. Maybe the union can edumucate them. I find it rather alarming that they don't seem to be able to see where this is heading... they basically need to hand the pilot group a somewhat industry-leading contract right now to break the death spiral. They're going to lose the 30-somethings anyway, maybe they can keep the 10+ year CA's who are applying and interviewing (yes I know some).

What scheduling program does AS use? Heard rumor PBS is coming…anyone have an update on when that is expected to happen?

We use line bidding. I heard a rumor that we’re gonna buy American. Rumors are plentiful in aviation.

PBS if done right could be implemented in the future. It can be beneficial for both parties.

Thanks! Is there only one bid window at AS, or do they have a second one?
Wow! That’s a rumor I hadn’t heard yet. Time will tell.
I’ve never used PBS, but my best friend is at JB and likes it. It works for him and makes the bid process pretty easy…about 15 minutes and he is done.

Does reserve (I’m a new guy starting training end of Oct) bid differently than line holders? Are you able to waive days off to get more work days in a row reducing the number of commutes in a month? How flexible are the schedulers?
Would anyone be willing to show what the reserve schedule looks like?
Soooo much to learn…Thanks in advance!