VP of Flight Ops
04-21-2022 | 10:15 AM
#102
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 9,348
Likes: 330
Who’s surprised?
”Pilot attrition! That will force their hand!”
Nope.
Cost of doing business status quo, cancel flights, reduce capacity, overhire for attrition
< Cost of new ALPA contract.
So as long as that holds true, no contract is coming. They are going to overhire this year to account for attrition and cut capacity in order to deal with the pilot staffing issue. And as much as we hate it, the investors love it.
I’m starting to understand the merger rumors. It’s like a drug to lessen the pain of what is the reality of being at AS.
”Pilot attrition! That will force their hand!”
Nope.
Cost of doing business status quo, cancel flights, reduce capacity, overhire for attrition
< Cost of new ALPA contract.
So as long as that holds true, no contract is coming. They are going to overhire this year to account for attrition and cut capacity in order to deal with the pilot staffing issue. And as much as we hate it, the investors love it.
I’m starting to understand the merger rumors. It’s like a drug to lessen the pain of what is the reality of being at AS.
04-21-2022 | 10:34 AM
#103
Line Holder
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 700
Likes: 0
Who’s surprised?
”Pilot attrition! That will force their hand!”
Nope.
Cost of doing business status quo, cancel flights, reduce capacity, overhire for attrition
< Cost of new ALPA contract.
So as long as that holds true, no contract is coming. They are going to overhire this year to account for attrition and cut capacity in order to deal with the pilot staffing issue. And as much as we hate it, the investors love it.
I’m starting to understand the merger rumors. It’s like a drug to lessen the pain of what is the reality of being at AS.
”Pilot attrition! That will force their hand!”
Nope.
Cost of doing business status quo, cancel flights, reduce capacity, overhire for attrition
< Cost of new ALPA contract.
So as long as that holds true, no contract is coming. They are going to overhire this year to account for attrition and cut capacity in order to deal with the pilot staffing issue. And as much as we hate it, the investors love it.
I’m starting to understand the merger rumors. It’s like a drug to lessen the pain of what is the reality of being at AS.
The recent total meltdown of Horizon is an example. For a long time, they were warned that the flight operations could not be sustained reliably with the pilot issues they were having.
They put off addressing the problems in a concrete way, until finally, the tish hit the fan. After that happened, they simply hit the reset button, and went on their merry way again... "Like it never even happened!"
AS could quite possibly be considered the "Teflon Don" of the airline industry. Nothing ever sticks...... Well,..... until it does, I guess.
04-21-2022 | 10:37 AM
#104
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 7,573
Likes: 282
From: DOWNGRADE COMPLETE: Thanks Gary. Thanks SWAPA.
Let it go. Your a Cappy now right, at a company with a great future. Out of all the possibilities for a career at AT/VJ most would conclude you knocked it out of the park.
I'd rather see you use your energies on engaging your Reps on C2020 and acting like the Leader your paid to be for the guys you fly with instead of the crybaby stuff you post from time to time on here.
Let it go.
Or don't. And medical out earlier than you have too.
I'd rather see you use your energies on engaging your Reps on C2020 and acting like the Leader your paid to be for the guys you fly with instead of the crybaby stuff you post from time to time on here.
Let it go.
Or don't. And medical out earlier than you have too.
04-21-2022 | 11:07 AM
#105
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2022
Posts: 1,891
Likes: 186
just read the Q1 Earnings report….. “beat loss expectations” confident on “2022 financial target” …. Hoping for “Pretax profit 6-9%”.
It’s ironic at times but, it’s almost as though Alaska mgmt runs the airline the way a hedge fund would,…. It’s not about profit VIA the product. It’s profit in spite of the product. The core customer…. The REAL one…. is Wall Street analysts. That’s it. Reputation? Employees? Passengers? Reliability? Etc…. As long as they get good grades from Wall Street…… irrelevant.
It’s ironic at times but, it’s almost as though Alaska mgmt runs the airline the way a hedge fund would,…. It’s not about profit VIA the product. It’s profit in spite of the product. The core customer…. The REAL one…. is Wall Street analysts. That’s it. Reputation? Employees? Passengers? Reliability? Etc…. As long as they get good grades from Wall Street…… irrelevant.
It's only leverage for management when they want to threaten us about using sick time when it suits them. Even FO's leaving the airline in record number isn't leverage to get a market rate contract. Amazing.
04-21-2022 | 11:10 AM
#106
Line Holder
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 927
Likes: 2
From: This side of the dirt.
I hope you're wrong, but if past results are an indication of future performance, then you might not be..
The recent total meltdown of Horizon is an example. For a long time, they were warned that the flight operations could not be sustained reliably with the pilot issues they were having.
They put off addressing the problems in a concrete way, until finally, the tish hit the fan. After that happened, they simply hit the reset button, and went on their merry way again... "Like it never even happened!"
AS could quite possibly be considered the "Teflon Don" of the airline industry. Nothing ever sticks...... Well,..... until it does, I guess.
The recent total meltdown of Horizon is an example. For a long time, they were warned that the flight operations could not be sustained reliably with the pilot issues they were having.
They put off addressing the problems in a concrete way, until finally, the tish hit the fan. After that happened, they simply hit the reset button, and went on their merry way again... "Like it never even happened!"
AS could quite possibly be considered the "Teflon Don" of the airline industry. Nothing ever sticks...... Well,..... until it does, I guess.
04-21-2022 | 11:20 AM
#107
Line Holder
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 927
Likes: 2
From: This side of the dirt.
I think you're 100% correct. It makes me sad to think about because it means we will never get a market rate contract. I've been trying to figure out why in Dave Mets threatening email about sick time use last year in July they went over the cost of cancelling 19 flights in very great detail. Yet we are cancelling 30-40 flights a day with big days cancelling over 100 flights a day. Why did they care so much last year and now they hardly care at all?
It's only leverage for management when they want to threaten us about using sick time when it suits them. Even FO's leaving the airline in record number isn't leverage to get a market rate contract. Amazing.
It's only leverage for management when they want to threaten us about using sick time when it suits them. Even FO's leaving the airline in record number isn't leverage to get a market rate contract. Amazing.
Guess we’ll just have to see who blinks first. Good luck beating analyst projections without us.
04-21-2022 | 11:23 AM
#108
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 44,870
Likes: 668
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
Agreed…… margin is king. In whatever form, so, if shrinking increases margin, so be it. If selling assets increases margin, so be it. That is the only constant. Everything else is malleable. Gotta have two wing walkers…. till ya don’t. What changed? Not enough wing walkers. Do the right thing…. Unless doing the right thing conflicts with margin…. and then don’t. Margin is the cake. Everything else is just varying degrees of frosting.
Not entirely. It's a well-established business principle that you need to grow to thrive... growth allows you to stay ahead of rising costs, and keeps you from getting boxed in by competitors.
Stagnation or shrinkage would generally be viewed with suspicion at best by The Street. Lack of growth today would be assumed to hint at lack of margins down the road.
That's the conventional wisdom, not a of law of physics, but I doubt they want to brag about lack of growth. Unless maybe they have a good excuse, like a recession.
04-21-2022 | 12:52 PM
#109
Line Holder
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 927
Likes: 2
From: This side of the dirt.
Earnings call….
Investor Q: “With United and others hiring so many pilots, what’s your selling point to attract pilots?”
BM A: paraphrasing “Our brand, our culture, our network, and we fly on the West Coast”
Hmmm…. No mention of our contract. Wonder why? 🤔 So all you brand conscious, culturally focused West Coasters who wanna fly everywhere everyone else does for less job security, pay and QOL…. Come on OVER!! 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
BM A: paraphrasing “Our brand, our culture, our network, and we fly on the West Coast”
Hmmm…. No mention of our contract. Wonder why? 🤔 So all you brand conscious, culturally focused West Coasters who wanna fly everywhere everyone else does for less job security, pay and QOL…. Come on OVER!! 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
04-21-2022 | 01:06 PM
#110
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 579
Likes: 30
Who’s surprised?
”Pilot attrition! That will force their hand!”
Nope.
Cost of doing business status quo, cancel flights, reduce capacity, overhire for attrition
< Cost of new ALPA contract.
So as long as that holds true, no contract is coming. They are going to overhire this year to account for attrition and cut capacity in order to deal with the pilot staffing issue. And as much as we hate it, the investors love it.
I’m starting to understand the merger rumors. It’s like a drug to lessen the pain of what is the reality of being at AS.
”Pilot attrition! That will force their hand!”
Nope.
Cost of doing business status quo, cancel flights, reduce capacity, overhire for attrition
< Cost of new ALPA contract.
So as long as that holds true, no contract is coming. They are going to overhire this year to account for attrition and cut capacity in order to deal with the pilot staffing issue. And as much as we hate it, the investors love it.
I’m starting to understand the merger rumors. It’s like a drug to lessen the pain of what is the reality of being at AS.
The CEO, when asked how we are attracting pilots, responds with we fly on the west coast and our “culture”….,,
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
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