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Old 04-25-2024, 07:10 PM
  #701  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
Both companies have fairly decent woke credentials. But maybe that;'s not what matters, could be as you say, money talks.
That doesn’t matter. The Democratic Party could **** in the sands of Waikiki and the waters of Angle Lake with full confidence that those states will still vote blue. You think they’ll vote for trump if the DOJ blocks this merger?
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Old 04-26-2024, 05:45 AM
  #702  
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In an actual antitrust trial, the judge does not impose remedies. They simply rule for or against the plaintiff.

It is not unexpected that the DOJ would have a list of asks for antitrust approval. The question is what is reasonable versus unreasonable:

1. Surrender of gates in SEA - reasonable (if equivalent to the number of gates that HA currently uses).
2. Termination of the WCIA and any domestic codeshare with AA - reasonable.
3. Exit from Oneworld alliance - unreasonable.
4. Surrender of gates in the Hawaiian islands - unreasonable (maybe some wiggle room, but threatening to reduce interisland service if DOJ demands gates would also bring some political pressure on the DOJ).

In my opinion, if the current DOJ overplays their hand Alaska will just slow walk the merger to see what happens in November, hoping for a more favorable DOJ.

Cheers - Rob.
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Old 04-26-2024, 05:57 AM
  #703  
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Originally Posted by Twr199 View Post
That doesn’t matter. The Democratic Party could **** in the sands of Waikiki and the waters of Angle Lake with full confidence that those states will still vote blue. You think they’ll vote for trump if the DOJ blocks this merger?
Of course not, but they can't pizz off all of their friends and allies, all of the time, and expect to stay in office.

The HI pols will presumably express their support for this, and in exchange other pols will presumably expect some favors down the road. Margins of control in congress are thin, every vote counts so every little congress-critter from every little state counts to some degree.

That's just how it works, politics as usual. To say nothing of who is bought and paid for, but in that case the big four might have captive pols who might oppose a merger that might produce a more robust competitor. And a lot of this happens behind closed doors, so hard for us to predict.

This is irrelevant in WA state IMO, but it seems to matter to some people on the islands.
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Old 04-26-2024, 07:22 AM
  #704  
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Originally Posted by rballan View Post
In an actual antitrust trial, the judge does not impose remedies. They simply rule for or against the plaintiff.

It is not unexpected that the DOJ would have a list of asks for antitrust approval. The question is what is reasonable versus unreasonable:

1. Surrender of gates in SEA - reasonable (if equivalent to the number of gates that HA currently uses).
2. Termination of the WCIA and any domestic codeshare with AA - reasonable.
3. Exit from Oneworld alliance - unreasonable.
4. Surrender of gates in the Hawaiian islands - unreasonable (maybe some wiggle room, but threatening to reduce interisland service if DOJ demands gates would also bring some political pressure on the DOJ).

In my opinion, if the current DOJ overplays their hand Alaska will just slow walk the merger to see what happens in November, hoping for a more favorable DOJ.

Cheers - Rob.
these all sound like plausible outcomes. Didn’t Alaska’s VP of Fleet just become CEO of Oneworld within the last 6 months as well? Seems like a pretty firm commitment to remaining in Oneworld for the long term
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Old 04-26-2024, 07:44 AM
  #705  
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Divestiture? So now not only is Alaska buying an overstaffed unprofitable flailing operation with outdated assets we have to give up our profitable routes and gates to get it? Wow, merger math really is backwards. On top of that you are going to get a bunch of pilots from an unprofitable operation inserted next to you on OUR seniority list, a bunch stateside pilots that COMMITTED to a career of commuting half way across the Pacific are now going to get stuck right in there next to YOU in our west coast bases, actually probably in front of you because….you know….widebody career expectations. I CANNOT BELIEVE any Alaska pilot is excited about this. It might be good for BM and ST, it might be good for passengers with the AS “gold standard” credit card. It is probably good for HA pilots due to the financial condition of their airline. It IS NOT good for the Alaska pilot group. This seems obviously undebatable.

A secret I learned while flying in the military……the key to your happiness isn’t hardware. A 787 (if you ever touch one) will get old boring and uninteresting real fast, just like flying anything else. The airplane I flew in the military is “sexier” flying than anything a civilian trained pilot will ever touch……after a few years….old boring and a job just like every other airplane.

The only thing unique HA has to offer Alaska is hardware and unprofitable seasonal pacific routes that likely won’t exist once ST gets a look at their financial reality. HA lost $140m in Q1.

HA has 65 airplanes, 4 types, 1100 pilots (WTF?), and a little route structure geared almost entirely around vacation travel (i.e. economically sensitive AF). They have a bottom of the barrel cargo contract with Amazon that has them playing in the same whipsaw sandbox as Mesa. 330’s that don’t go far enough, 717s with less than 5 years left on them, 321s with bum engines that Alaska likely doesn’t want, and are STILL HIRING PILOTS TODAY to cover contract cargo flying ON a B SCALE! Not hard to imagine our union forced to cough up concessions from our hard earned contract in an effort to keep those fine folks newly hired at HA from getting furloughed.

I would not consider myself ideologically aligned with the current administration….but GO LINA KHAN GO!!!!! Please spare us from ourselves. I was going to vote for RFK as a protest vote against the two bumbling turd wagons on the primary tickets but I might be changing my mind.

IF (I said IF) we are headed towards an economic slowdown this is the absolute last thing you want your employer to be embroiled in with faltering demand. Forced to unload an entire airline of unprofitable outdated assets and scrambling to figure out what to do with 1100 extra pilots. Buh Bye leverage good luck in the JCBA.

We should be getting lean, mean, profitable, and focused on smart deliberate organic growth where it makes sense and makes money. I know its not sexy to fly stateside in a 737 but who cares? If your pilot ego is still driving your life priorities at this point in your career you need to grow up.

I understand this is all out of our control. But I hope that as the costs/sacrifices required to push this disaster across the finish line inevitably mount that pilots would be hitting up their Reps daily. The union should be seriously questioning the wisdom of BMs ego project and making it known to management that the Alaska pilots are not on board. The Alaska pilot group has the most to lose in this transaction.
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Old 04-26-2024, 09:00 AM
  #706  
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Originally Posted by AKCattleCarrier View Post
Divestiture? So now not only is Alaska buying an overstaffed unprofitable flailing operation with outdated assets we have to give up our profitable routes and gates to get it? Wow, merger math really is backwards. On top of that you are going to get a bunch of pilots from an unprofitable operation inserted next to you on OUR seniority list, a bunch stateside pilots that COMMITTED to a career of commuting half way across the Pacific are now going to get stuck right in there next to YOU in our west coast bases, actually probably in front of you because….you know….widebody career expectations. I CANNOT BELIEVE any Alaska pilot is excited about this. It might be good for BM and ST, it might be good for passengers with the AS “gold standard” credit card. It is probably good for HA pilots due to the financial condition of their airline. It IS NOT good for the Alaska pilot group. This seems obviously undebatable.

A secret I learned while flying in the military……the key to your happiness isn’t hardware. A 787 (if you ever touch one) will get old boring and uninteresting real fast, just like flying anything else. The airplane I flew in the military is “sexier” flying than anything a civilian trained pilot will ever touch……after a few years….old boring and a job just like every other airplane.

The only thing unique HA has to offer Alaska is hardware and unprofitable seasonal pacific routes that likely won’t exist once ST gets a look at their financial reality. HA lost $140m in Q1.

HA has 65 airplanes, 4 types, 1100 pilots (WTF?), and a little route structure geared almost entirely around vacation travel (i.e. economically sensitive AF). They have a bottom of the barrel cargo contract with Amazon that has them playing in the same whipsaw sandbox as Mesa. 330’s that don’t go far enough, 717s with less than 5 years left on them, 321s with bum engines that Alaska likely doesn’t want, and are STILL HIRING PILOTS TODAY to cover contract cargo flying ON a B SCALE! Not hard to imagine our union forced to cough up concessions from our hard earned contract in an effort to keep those fine folks newly hired at HA from getting furloughed.

I would not consider myself ideologically aligned with the current administration….but GO LINA KHAN GO!!!!! Please spare us from ourselves. I was going to vote for RFK as a protest vote against the two bumbling turd wagons on the primary tickets but I might be changing my mind.

IF (I said IF) we are headed towards an economic slowdown this is the absolute last thing you want your employer to be embroiled in with faltering demand. Forced to unload an entire airline of unprofitable outdated assets and scrambling to figure out what to do with 1100 extra pilots. Buh Bye leverage good luck in the JCBA.

We should be getting lean, mean, profitable, and focused on smart deliberate organic growth where it makes sense and makes money. I know its not sexy to fly stateside in a 737 but who cares? If your pilot ego is still driving your life priorities at this point in your career you need to grow up.

I understand this is all out of our control. But I hope that as the costs/sacrifices required to push this disaster across the finish line inevitably mount that pilots would be hitting up their Reps daily. The union should be seriously questioning the wisdom of BMs ego project and making it known to management that the Alaska pilots are not on board. The Alaska pilot group has the most to lose in this transaction.
Tell us how you really feel. Logical but inside the box logic. Didn’t work for us at HAL when we were minting money interisland and in Japan and unwilling to fly into Midwest competitor fortress hubs (risky and outside the box). What works will work until it doesn’t (single fleet). Complexity can be expensive but saved our ass through some tough times:

717 sim availability went down——in comes the 321

Covid strikes—— park the 330s in favor of the 321

A route gets hot ——upguage it to a widebody

Manufacturing delay or recall —— 330 covers 787/321 flying

Good luck to us all.
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Old 04-26-2024, 09:10 AM
  #707  
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Originally Posted by AKCattleCarrier View Post
Divestiture? So now not only is Alaska buying an overstaffed unprofitable flailing operation with outdated assets we have to give up our profitable routes and gates to get it? Wow, merger math really is backwards. On top of that you are going to get a bunch of pilots from an unprofitable operation inserted next to you on OUR seniority list, a bunch stateside pilots that COMMITTED to a career of commuting half way across the Pacific are now going to get stuck right in there next to YOU in our west coast bases, actually probably in front of you because….you know….widebody career expectations. I CANNOT BELIEVE any Alaska pilot is excited about this. It might be good for BM and ST, it might be good for passengers with the AS “gold standard” credit card. It is probably good for HA pilots due to the financial condition of their airline. It IS NOT good for the Alaska pilot group. This seems obviously undebatable.

A secret I learned while flying in the military……the key to your happiness isn’t hardware. A 787 (if you ever touch one) will get old boring and uninteresting real fast, just like flying anything else. The airplane I flew in the military is “sexier” flying than anything a civilian trained pilot will ever touch……after a few years….old boring and a job just like every other airplane.

The only thing unique HA has to offer Alaska is hardware and unprofitable seasonal pacific routes that likely won’t exist once ST gets a look at their financial reality. HA lost $140m in Q1.

HA has 65 airplanes, 4 types, 1100 pilots (WTF?), and a little route structure geared almost entirely around vacation travel (i.e. economically sensitive AF). They have a bottom of the barrel cargo contract with Amazon that has them playing in the same whipsaw sandbox as Mesa. 330’s that don’t go far enough, 717s with less than 5 years left on them, 321s with bum engines that Alaska likely doesn’t want, and are STILL HIRING PILOTS TODAY to cover contract cargo flying ON a B SCALE! Not hard to imagine our union forced to cough up concessions from our hard earned contract in an effort to keep those fine folks newly hired at HA from getting furloughed.

I would not consider myself ideologically aligned with the current administration….but GO LINA KHAN GO!!!!! Please spare us from ourselves. I was going to vote for RFK as a protest vote against the two bumbling turd wagons on the primary tickets but I might be changing my mind.

IF (I said IF) we are headed towards an economic slowdown this is the absolute last thing you want your employer to be embroiled in with faltering demand. Forced to unload an entire airline of unprofitable outdated assets and scrambling to figure out what to do with 1100 extra pilots. Buh Bye leverage good luck in the JCBA.

We should be getting lean, mean, profitable, and focused on smart deliberate organic growth where it makes sense and makes money. I know its not sexy to fly stateside in a 737 but who cares? If your pilot ego is still driving your life priorities at this point in your career you need to grow up.

I understand this is all out of our control. But I hope that as the costs/sacrifices required to push this disaster across the finish line inevitably mount that pilots would be hitting up their Reps daily. The union should be seriously questioning the wisdom of BMs ego project and making it known to management that the Alaska pilots are not on board. The Alaska pilot group has the most to lose in this transaction.
holy smokes I’ve had lemons less bitter

it’ll all be alright go take your boat out in gig harbor and relax before you have a heart attack
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Old 04-26-2024, 09:27 AM
  #708  
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Originally Posted by AKCattleCarrier View Post
Divestiture? So now not only is Alaska buying an overstaffed unprofitable flailing operation with outdated assets we have to give up our profitable routes and gates to get it? Wow, merger math really is backwards. On top of that you are going to get a bunch of pilots from an unprofitable operation inserted next to you on OUR seniority list, a bunch stateside pilots that COMMITTED to a career of commuting half way across the Pacific are now going to get stuck right in there next to YOU in our west coast bases, actually probably in front of you because….you know….widebody career expectations. I CANNOT BELIEVE any Alaska pilot is excited about this. It might be good for BM and ST, it might be good for passengers with the AS “gold standard” credit card. It is probably good for HA pilots due to the financial condition of their airline. It IS NOT good for the Alaska pilot group. This seems obviously undebatable.

A secret I learned while flying in the military……the key to your happiness isn’t hardware. A 787 (if you ever touch one) will get old boring and uninteresting real fast, just like flying anything else. The airplane I flew in the military is “sexier” flying than anything a civilian trained pilot will ever touch……after a few years….old boring and a job just like every other airplane.

The only thing unique HA has to offer Alaska is hardware and unprofitable seasonal pacific routes that likely won’t exist once ST gets a look at their financial reality. HA lost $140m in Q1.

HA has 65 airplanes, 4 types, 1100 pilots (WTF?), and a little route structure geared almost entirely around vacation travel (i.e. economically sensitive AF). They have a bottom of the barrel cargo contract with Amazon that has them playing in the same whipsaw sandbox as Mesa. 330’s that don’t go far enough, 717s with less than 5 years left on them, 321s with bum engines that Alaska likely doesn’t want, and are STILL HIRING PILOTS TODAY to cover contract cargo flying ON a B SCALE! Not hard to imagine our union forced to cough up concessions from our hard earned contract in an effort to keep those fine folks newly hired at HA from getting furloughed.

I would not consider myself ideologically aligned with the current administration….but GO LINA KHAN GO!!!!! Please spare us from ourselves. I was going to vote for RFK as a protest vote against the two bumbling turd wagons on the primary tickets but I might be changing my mind.

IF (I said IF) we are headed towards an economic slowdown this is the absolute last thing you want your employer to be embroiled in with faltering demand. Forced to unload an entire airline of unprofitable outdated assets and scrambling to figure out what to do with 1100 extra pilots. Buh Bye leverage good luck in the JCBA.

We should be getting lean, mean, profitable, and focused on smart deliberate organic growth where it makes sense and makes money. I know its not sexy to fly stateside in a 737 but who cares? If your pilot ego is still driving your life priorities at this point in your career you need to grow up.

I understand this is all out of our control. But I hope that as the costs/sacrifices required to push this disaster across the finish line inevitably mount that pilots would be hitting up their Reps daily. The union should be seriously questioning the wisdom of BMs ego project and making it known to management that the Alaska pilots are not on board. The Alaska pilot group has the most to lose in this transaction.
This is not irrational, but probably on the pessimistic side. Probably.

I do agree that for many west coast AS pilots over age 45-ish this has little upside but significant potential downside. If you're younger there might be long-term tangible gains that offset the seniority issue.

Playing with widebodies in the deep end is inherently riskier than the traditional AS model... but I also think that model is at risk of being unsustainable in the face of the big four. It's not 1985, the era of the regional legacy airline is over,
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Old 04-26-2024, 09:38 AM
  #709  
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Originally Posted by AKCattleCarrier View Post
Divestiture? So now not only is Alaska buying an overstaffed unprofitable flailing operation with outdated assets we have to give up our profitable routes and gates to get it? Wow, merger math really is backwards. On top of that you are going to get a bunch of pilots from an unprofitable operation inserted next to you on OUR seniority list, a bunch stateside pilots that COMMITTED to a career of commuting half way across the Pacific are now going to get stuck right in there next to YOU in our west coast bases, actually probably in front of you because….you know….widebody career expectations. I CANNOT BELIEVE any Alaska pilot is excited about this. It might be good for BM and ST, it might be good for passengers with the AS “gold standard” credit card. It is probably good for HA pilots due to the financial condition of their airline. It IS NOT good for the Alaska pilot group. This seems obviously undebatable.

A secret I learned while flying in the military……the key to your happiness isn’t hardware. A 787 (if you ever touch one) will get old boring and uninteresting real fast, just like flying anything else. The airplane I flew in the military is “sexier” flying than anything a civilian trained pilot will ever touch……after a few years….old boring and a job just like every other airplane.

The only thing unique HA has to offer Alaska is hardware and unprofitable seasonal pacific routes that likely won’t exist once ST gets a look at their financial reality. HA lost $140m in Q1.

HA has 65 airplanes, 4 types, 1100 pilots (WTF?), and a little route structure geared almost entirely around vacation travel (i.e. economically sensitive AF). They have a bottom of the barrel cargo contract with Amazon that has them playing in the same whipsaw sandbox as Mesa. 330’s that don’t go far enough, 717s with less than 5 years left on them, 321s with bum engines that Alaska likely doesn’t want, and are STILL HIRING PILOTS TODAY to cover contract cargo flying ON a B SCALE! Not hard to imagine our union forced to cough up concessions from our hard earned contract in an effort to keep those fine folks newly hired at HA from getting furloughed.

I would not consider myself ideologically aligned with the current administration….but GO LINA KHAN GO!!!!! Please spare us from ourselves. I was going to vote for RFK as a protest vote against the two bumbling turd wagons on the primary tickets but I might be changing my mind.

IF (I said IF) we are headed towards an economic slowdown this is the absolute last thing you want your employer to be embroiled in with faltering demand. Forced to unload an entire airline of unprofitable outdated assets and scrambling to figure out what to do with 1100 extra pilots. Buh Bye leverage good luck in the JCBA.

We should be getting lean, mean, profitable, and focused on smart deliberate organic growth where it makes sense and makes money. I know its not sexy to fly stateside in a 737 but who cares? If your pilot ego is still driving your life priorities at this point in your career you need to grow up.

I understand this is all out of our control. But I hope that as the costs/sacrifices required to push this disaster across the finish line inevitably mount that pilots would be hitting up their Reps daily. The union should be seriously questioning the wisdom of BMs ego project and making it known to management that the Alaska pilots are not on board. The Alaska pilot group has the most to lose in this transaction.
Dang this is salty… but I can’t say I disagree with any of it. 🫠
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Old 04-26-2024, 10:11 AM
  #710  
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Originally Posted by PineappleXpres View Post
Tell us how you really feel. Logical but inside the box logic. Didn’t work for us at HAL when we were minting money interisland and in Japan and unwilling to fly into Midwest competitor fortress hubs (risky and outside the box). What works will work until it doesn’t (single fleet). Complexity can be expensive but saved our ass through some tough times:

717 sim availability went down——in comes the 321

Covid strikes—— park the 330s in favor of the 321

A route gets hot ——upguage it to a widebody

Manufacturing delay or recall —— 330 covers 787/321 flying

Good luck to us all.
This⬆️⬆️⬆️.
Kind of what I have been quietly thinking, but afraid to say out loud for fear of upsetting the GrOwTh crowd. This merger will f&@k mid seniority AS for years to come, HA pilots are praying the merger is approved. It is a win, win only for the HA pilots and maybe the top 150 AS pilots.
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