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Old 03-18-2020, 03:14 PM
  #4571  
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Originally Posted by EngineOut
And those are perfectly transparent numbers. I am sure.
Donít know. All bureaucracies lie. But the numbers appear consistent with other indicators:

COVID-19 Chinese Recovery Begins | Audries Aircraft Analysis

Do you have BETTER numbers?

and remember, the denominator for cases in China as a whole is 1.4 BILLION.
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Old 03-18-2020, 03:53 PM
  #4572  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
The province where this started - where Wuhan is - Hubei province, has a population of 59 million people including 11 million in Wuhan city itself. Total cases identified to date in Hubei - the epicenter of the outbreak - is 67,800 and in all of China 80,800. That means if you lived in that province your chance of being diagnosed with COVID-19 was one in 870 and in the rest of China even less.

They are already starting to withdraw restrictions there:


https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regi...covid-19-cases
This is how they kept the numbers low:https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status...571772928?s=19

Nothing like is going to ever happen here so don't expect the same results.
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Old 03-18-2020, 04:26 PM
  #4573  
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Originally Posted by lowflying
This is how they kept the numbers low:https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status...571772928?s=19

Nothing like is going to ever happen here so don't expect the same results.
Wow that video was remarkable. The US government is totally out of its league right now.
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Old 03-18-2020, 04:59 PM
  #4574  
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Originally Posted by lowflying
This is how they kept the numbers low:https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status...571772928?s=19

Nothing like is going to ever happen here so don't expect the same results.
and we have nothing like the average population density they did there.

and even in Italy where they have 35,000 cases diagnosed, thatís still 35,000 cases out of a population of 60.5 million. Thatís still one in 1700 people. And the population density in Italy is five times what it is in the US and their median population is eight years older than ours. They are going to be hit a lot quicker and harder by this than we are.

Also, treatments are being found.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/18/japane...officials-say/
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Old 03-22-2020, 05:03 AM
  #4575  
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If you look at exponential growth and doubling every 4 days then in 20 days 35,000 becomes over a million. 20 days later its 35 million. In less than two months 35,000 infects everyone in the US. Many suspect our fatality rate would be more like Italy because once we get 500,000 cases in the US then our healthcare system will be unable to provide proper care. So we would have somewhere between 1 million and 15 million fatalities.

50% of 330 mil get infected. 1-5% die. Do the math.
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:28 AM
  #4576  
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Originally Posted by elssaw
If you look at exponential growth and doubling every 4 days then in 20 days 35,000 becomes over a million. 20 days later its 35 million. In less than two months 35,000 infects everyone in the US. Many suspect our fatality rate would be more like Italy because once we get 500,000 cases in the US then our healthcare system will be unable to provide proper care. So we would have somewhere between 1 million and 15 million fatalities.

50% of 330 mil get infected. 1-5% die. Do the math.
This statement is fear mongering nonsense. There are already more than a million infected in the US. Italian doctors were reporting strange pneumonia cases as early as November. This virus is so widespread already. Yet if you keep watching the reported numbers, this thing is just starting, which it isnít. Itís been here for months. Itís only exponential on charts. The charts are incomplete at best.
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Old 03-22-2020, 11:46 AM
  #4577  
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Originally Posted by Xtreme87
This statement is fear mongering nonsense. There are already more than a million infected in the US. Italian doctors were reporting strange pneumonia cases as early as November. This virus is so widespread already. Yet if you keep watching the reported numbers, this thing is just starting, which it isn’t. It’s been here for months. It’s only exponential on charts. The charts are incomplete at best.
This is probably the case, the exponential growth is maximum early in the event when all of the low hanging fruit is available for contagion.

Later on it will flatten out due to people who already had it and people with better immunity... in addition to social distancing. My neighbor already had it months ago after she traveled, we knew she was sick in bed but just though it was the flu at the time. In retrospect the symptoms were 100% COVID. Her husband almost certainly either got it with no symptoms or is naturally immune.
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Old 03-22-2020, 02:21 PM
  #4578  
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So whatís the over under on furloughs announced this week?


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Old 03-22-2020, 05:50 PM
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Originally Posted by NewGuy01
So whatís the over under on furloughs announced this week?


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If or when the govt bailout is announced I think at that point they will determine how many they are going to furlough and when. Given the load factor hovering around 20% or less Iíd guess 500-700 in the first wave, with more to follow as necessary.
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Old 03-22-2020, 06:16 PM
  #4580  
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They offered up no furloughs through Aug 31 in the bailout assuming we get grants. Guessing that wasn't much of a give since they probably want to see how this shakes out over the summer regardless. We will see other workgroups take a hit before pilots is my guess.

I won't be furloughed unless things go mission critical. However given the possibly short lived nature of this thing I think we should consider doing reduced flying lines to keep all pilots employed.
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