Investor call and fleet projection
10-26-2018, 07:26 AM
#11
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 47
The thing that I find consistently troubling at Allegiant is the level of pilot hating. IMHO someone in management has flipped a switch and told other labor groups (mostly crew services) to start acting hostile towards the pilot group. I am sure this, at least in part, is related to the ongoing PBS issue with the union.
If I were a true outsider looking inward at Allegiant I would see an airline that has been consistently profitable quarter after quarter for many years in a row and think to myself “Gee, all those employees from the top down must be back slapping and high fiving each other every day because they are proud of what they have built and everyone is sharing in the success.”
Instead, as an insider, I see the kinds of things that happen to an airline that is in financial peril where labor groups start getting pitted against one another and the company starts looking for (or creating) any reason to thin the herd.
I simply cannot rationalize what is going on here and that is what concerns me.
If I were a true outsider looking inward at Allegiant I would see an airline that has been consistently profitable quarter after quarter for many years in a row and think to myself “Gee, all those employees from the top down must be back slapping and high fiving each other every day because they are proud of what they have built and everyone is sharing in the success.”
Instead, as an insider, I see the kinds of things that happen to an airline that is in financial peril where labor groups start getting pitted against one another and the company starts looking for (or creating) any reason to thin the herd.
I simply cannot rationalize what is going on here and that is what concerns me.
10-26-2018, 08:17 AM
#12
On Reserve
Joined APC: Nov 2008
Posts: 20
Originally Posted by dutch rudder
If anyone makes a career decision based on the information in this thread, they are foolish.
Everyone needs to relax. We had a few hang-ups with aircraft deliveries and we have fewer planes than expected, thus we are overstaffed. But this doesn’t mean the company doesn’t want to grow the airline! Sheldon even said 12-13 frames next year. We need pilots to make that happen.
Everyone needs to relax. We had a few hang-ups with aircraft deliveries and we have fewer planes than expected, thus we are overstaffed. But this doesn’t mean the company doesn’t want to grow the airline! Sheldon even said 12-13 frames next year. We need pilots to make that happen.
10-26-2018, 12:49 PM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,940
Originally Posted by 9easy
Based on Scotts comment, they view us roughly ~150 pilots overstaffed.
Well we are overstaffed. Let's do the math.
Current seniority list is 887 pilots.
By the end of the year, we will be down to 76 airframes.
From Investor Day 2017, company is on record stating their goal is to be able to reduce down to 7.6 pilots per airplane in 2020, which they believe is the "normalized level" which is hard to imagine. They forecast 9.8 for 2018.
So even by 2018 forecast standards we are overstaffed by 142 pilots as the last MD80 leaves the property next month. By 2020 standards, assuming there was no net increase in aircraft (which we know will not be true), we would be overstaffed by 309 pilots.
Let's add in the hopeful 13 aircraft for 2019. If we were to split the pilots per aircraft today vs. projected 2020, we could split the difference and call it 8.7. We would still be overstaffed by 112.
One thing these numbers do not take into account though is that as far as I know everyone in the training department is also on the seniority list.
Its hard to imagine any hiring at all in 2019.
10-26-2018, 01:52 PM
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Posts: 264
Originally Posted by tom11011
Well we are overstaffed. Let's do the math.
Current seniority list is 887 pilots.
By the end of the year, we will be down to 76 airframes.
From Investor Day 2017, company is on record stating their goal is to be able to reduce down to 7.6 pilots per airplane in 2020, which they believe is the "normalized level" which is hard to imagine. They forecast 9.8 for 2018.
So even by 2018 forecast standards we are overstaffed by 142 pilots as the last MD80 leaves the property next month. By 2020 standards, assuming there was no net increase in aircraft (which we know will not be true), we would be overstaffed by 309 pilots.
Let's add in the hopeful 13 aircraft for 2019. If we were to split the pilots per aircraft today vs. projected 2020, we could split the difference and call it 8.7. We would still be overstaffed by 112.
One thing these numbers do not take into account though is that as far as I know everyone in the training department is also on the seniority list.
Its hard to imagine any hiring at all in 2019.
Current seniority list is 887 pilots.
By the end of the year, we will be down to 76 airframes.
From Investor Day 2017, company is on record stating their goal is to be able to reduce down to 7.6 pilots per airplane in 2020, which they believe is the "normalized level" which is hard to imagine. They forecast 9.8 for 2018.
So even by 2018 forecast standards we are overstaffed by 142 pilots as the last MD80 leaves the property next month. By 2020 standards, assuming there was no net increase in aircraft (which we know will not be true), we would be overstaffed by 309 pilots.
Let's add in the hopeful 13 aircraft for 2019. If we were to split the pilots per aircraft today vs. projected 2020, we could split the difference and call it 8.7. We would still be overstaffed by 112.
One thing these numbers do not take into account though is that as far as I know everyone in the training department is also on the seniority list.
Its hard to imagine any hiring at all in 2019.
By 2020 the stated goal is 100 a/c total fleet.
10-26-2018, 02:14 PM
#15
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2013
Posts: 1,181
Originally Posted by Desert Sky
By 2020 the stated goal is 100 a/c total fleet.
It’s getting us back to the number we were at, before the transition. Basically.
10-28-2018, 07:10 AM
#16
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2014
Posts: 55
Originally Posted by CAirBear
And awhile back we were supposed to be almost 100 by the end of 2019.That is why then saying 12-13 planes next year isn’t really that great of news.
It’s getting us back to the number we were at, before the transition. Basically.
It’s getting us back to the number we were at, before the transition. Basically.
Maybe I'm missing something. Isn't 100 airplanes by 2020 saying the same thing as, 100 airplanes by the end of 2019?
The numbers we have now are over inflated. The ramp in SFB looks a bone yard with all of the MD-80's sitting.
Utilization of the Airbus is also much higher than the MD-80's that they are replacing. I can see us doing the same flying next year with a smaller fleet.
I'm not worried yet. I would have liked to see more growth, but I think they are carefully growing the network. 18 month upgrades are gone for now, but no one should have ever assumed they would become the norm. I'll take slow growth and our balance sheet over what Spirit is doing.
10-28-2018, 12:11 PM
#17
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Position: DTW
Posts: 60
Originally Posted by jegermeister
I'll take slow growth and our balance sheet over what Spirit is doing.
If Spirit was building a family fun center with go-karts, frozen pizza and laser tag would that suit you better? Asking for a friend.
10-28-2018, 10:37 PM
#19
Voice of Reason
Joined APC: Jul 2014
Position: Uncomfortable
Posts: 481
Seriously, guys... I can see how the stagnation is a pain in the ass and that having 6 fewer frames than we projected this year sucks as well... However, don't confuse losing a few frames to a higher bidder with losing money as a business...
We are printing money... Q3 revenue up 11% from last year, and yes I have a business background, I know that we took a hit this year in operating income (thanks VPS, MD-80 acceleration and a few other "one time" events), but we are still up in net income over last year. We're growing over 10% this year and are expected to keep at least that growth rate for 2019. The "business" is not in jeopardy...
If you are concerned, wait until January. The company is supposed to put out full year 2019, expectations for both the airline and non-airline side of the business (separately), with their January filing. If they don't show any significant growth following the transition, feel free to discuss it then. For now, there is no reason to think there is an issue with the business...
However, IF there were... What's more likely? Shutting the doors or spinning the airline off and sold? Integration is better than starting at the bottom...
We are printing money... Q3 revenue up 11% from last year, and yes I have a business background, I know that we took a hit this year in operating income (thanks VPS, MD-80 acceleration and a few other "one time" events), but we are still up in net income over last year. We're growing over 10% this year and are expected to keep at least that growth rate for 2019. The "business" is not in jeopardy...
If you are concerned, wait until January. The company is supposed to put out full year 2019, expectations for both the airline and non-airline side of the business (separately), with their January filing. If they don't show any significant growth following the transition, feel free to discuss it then. For now, there is no reason to think there is an issue with the business...
However, IF there were... What's more likely? Shutting the doors or spinning the airline off and sold? Integration is better than starting at the bottom...
11-24-2018, 02:37 PM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: Jet
Posts: 214
Originally Posted by akulahunter
Seriously, guys... I can see how the stagnation is a pain in the ass and that having 6 fewer frames than we projected this year sucks as well... However, don't confuse losing a few frames to a higher bidder with losing money as a business...
We are printing money... Q3 revenue up 11% from last year, and yes I have a business background, I know that we took a hit this year in operating income (thanks VPS, MD-80 acceleration and a few other "one time" events), but we are still up in net income over last year. We're growing over 10% this year and are expected to keep at least that growth rate for 2019. The "business" is not in jeopardy...
If you are concerned, wait until January. The company is supposed to put out full year 2019, expectations for both the airline and non-airline side of the business (separately), with their January filing. If they don't show any significant growth following the transition, feel free to discuss it then. For now, there is no reason to think there is an issue with the business...
However, IF there were... What's more likely? Shutting the doors or spinning the airline off and sold? Integration is better than starting at the bottom...
We are printing money... Q3 revenue up 11% from last year, and yes I have a business background, I know that we took a hit this year in operating income (thanks VPS, MD-80 acceleration and a few other "one time" events), but we are still up in net income over last year. We're growing over 10% this year and are expected to keep at least that growth rate for 2019. The "business" is not in jeopardy...
If you are concerned, wait until January. The company is supposed to put out full year 2019, expectations for both the airline and non-airline side of the business (separately), with their January filing. If they don't show any significant growth following the transition, feel free to discuss it then. For now, there is no reason to think there is an issue with the business...
However, IF there were... What's more likely? Shutting the doors or spinning the airline off and sold? Integration is better than starting at the bottom...
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
