Albief15

For Melissa…who asked "can I stay home and make it work at FedEx…" and the resulting speculation on the FedEx numbers, I thought I'd share some thoughts.

Take a closer look at the numbers of cockpits FedEx has indicated they plan on filling over the next few years.

To get a glimpse of the big picture, you need to look at both the current projects, past projections, and past hard data points.

Looking back to May of 2010, Here was the actual fleet breakdown in narrowbody/widebody numbers. These numbers come from postings (bids) those years using the number of airframes in service…not heavy mx, storage, etc.
May 2010 66 NB 215 WB 281 total
May 2011 65 NB 219 WB 284 total
May 2012 64 NB 217 WB 281 total
May 2013 62 NB 215 WB 277 total
May 2014 62 NB 206 WB 268 total
In actual numbers we’ve removed 4 NB and 9 WB aircraft in 4 years-- 13 hulls

What is perhaps more disturbing is the trend downward in fleet growth. Here were the numbers PROJECTED for May 2014 in past bids….
2013 71NB 210 WB 281 total
2012 71 NB 216 WB 287 total

So…in real numbers we are down 9 NB from past projections and 10 WBs from projections just 2 years ago. In other words, every revision since 2010 has continued to reduce the planned number of hulls in service with the greatest cut coming from the WB side of the fleet.

Projections are listed below for 2015-2017…from the latest bid:
2015 80 NB 195 WB 275 total
2016 92 NB 187 WB 279 total
2017 93 NB 185 WB 278 total

Therefore, in the next 3 years we can see growth of 31 NB while 21 WB are removed from service. The fleet will go from about 76.8% WB in 2014 to 66.6% WB in 2017. While not perfectly scientific a plan of 10% longer to upgrade or hold a certain seniority level in the widebody fleet at Fedex would seem to be a reasonable expectation. One bidding in the bottom 10% of the WB fleet should not expect to see a major improvement in relative seniority for 3-5 years as the fleet rapidly shrinks.

Based on these numbers, our fleet in 4 years will be slightly larger than it is now, but still smaller than it was in 2010, and certainly smaller than in 2008 before the financial crisis.

Based on these numbers and pending retirements, without major organic growth I predict slow and steady hiring of about 100/year at FedEx, with career progression including a longer period in the NB side of operations than many pilots experienced in the 1995-2002 period. Seniority advancement will pale in comparison to the Legacies for several years, but if FedEx has always been your target a slow, steady period of hiring may be about to commence. However, do not base your career expectations on the experiences of those hired before you, as the company is in the middle of a significant mode shift that is stressing efficiency and reducing the number of widebody aircraft. It ain’t your daddy’s FedEx…..

Here are the FedEx (potential) retirement numbers…pilots turning 65. Some may leave early for any number of reasons:
2014: 69
2015: 110
2016: 114
2017: 163
2018: 177
2019: 144
2020: 178
2021: 206
2022: 211
2023: 222
2024: 229
2025: 218
2026: 241
2027: 209
2028: 203
2029: 186

That's 1823 between now (some of 2014 have already left) and 2024. That's about 43% of the crew force. So in 10 years, if nobody retired, the fleet stayed exactly the same, you'd be at 57%. I've been here 12.5 years now and I sit around 67% overall, so the rate of advancement you have would be a bit higher than what I've experienced. Subtract the 10% less wide body aircraft its probably a wash to hold WB captain. Even with the reduction our ratio of WB to NB is much higher than most pax carriers. Look at the projections at AA and DAL to make a more apples to apples comparison of your relative seniority in each company and what it will get you seat and dollar wise.

satpak77

Albie, thanks for the great info. In laymans terms, say a guy got hired at FDX today, late 2014 (no hiring, I know, just for discussion). Based on what you are seeing/forecasting, how many years until upgrade to Captain for the imaginary 2014 new-hire ? And what would platform/equipment would that be ?

Thank You

Albief15

No idea. A couple years ago I was in Santiago. Lan Chile does that trip now. We used to go to Hilo....Aloha cargo does it now. I can guess your seniority number with some confidence, but have no idea what it buys without knowing the business plans of Fedex.

Want a guess? 10 year NB and 15 year WB. Those are numbers close to a 2002 hire.

Shaggy1970

I can't believe you guys get to see future airframe projections. I don't think UPS has ever shared this kind of information with the pilot types.

DLax85

My guesstimate is that Albie's prediction is probably within +2 years of being correct; however, that's bidding Capt at 100%

...and anyone doing that, may find it a long slog working their way up to 80% in their respective Capt seat.

As already stated elsewhere, the QOL at FEDEX, for any commuter in the bottom 20%, may not be that desirable.

Be careful what you ask/bid for!

mrvmo

Untrue......IPA seniority projector shows 8 years from now. I am an eight year guy......and nothing is a certainty around here.

Deuce130

When I got hired in 2005, "they" said we'd all be wide body captains in 5-7 years. I'm now in year 9 and bidding in the bottom 10% of the 777 as a F/O, the bottom 25% of the other widebody fleets. Still probably looking at 5-7 years to WB captain. There's just no way to predict.

satpak77

Deuce, thank You

Well based on Albies optic and his data and research, I was looking for a "rough idea" not an exact prediction. I didn't mean to cause the conclusion that I wanted a prediction. But thanks everybody for the replies

SeeDub

If you are willing to spend time "massaging" your schedule, the bottom 20% ain't too bad at all as a commuter. In my < 10 years, I have yet to break 20% and in fact have spent most of my time <10% from the bottom as a commuter.

My experience has been that all one needs is a little space from the bottom ( ~5%) and that's enough wiggle room to get creative and at least turn a terrible commuter schedule into something you can live with.

I'm convinced that our flexibility in manipulating our schedules is one of the best parts of our contract and the cargo flying operation. A lot of what we do at FedEx with our schedules as junior a pilot simply isn't possible working for a passenger carrier operation. My favorite is a short week on followed by a long week off with no dead time during the work week. I'm typically commuting to work twice a month, sometimes 3 and rarely 4.

Of course, it's always good to be senior but even the junior pilot can have a relatively decent schedule at FedEx. You just have to be flexible and consistently put in a little effort massaging your schedule.

trashhauler

Dub, if your part of the Wolf pack, your seniority is irrelevant Couldn't help myself. If you are willing to work, as long as you can drop trips, you can make a junior schedule work here at Fedex.