Floobs

which will end up being only 600. They always overproject.

Sliceback

645 last year. Wasn’t the plan 625?

Name User

Roughly 600 retirements, I'd be hesitant to count on anything more than that. Still 50 a month, we can't get too greedy.

TransWorld

In 2017 there were 450 mandatory retirements, yet there were 645 hired. How do you explain that thinking?

You are ignoring early retirements, pilots leaving for other reasons, new hires that do not make it, growth, etc. etc. Wise planning considers these other factors.

Someone in an earlier post calculated the number of pilots needed (ignoring managment, training, disability, other leaves, etc). Based on his numbers, AA should hire zero and should furlough a number of pilots. Clearly this calculation does not consider these other factors, either.

Since the 2017 plan was to hire 625 and the actual hires were 645, I would be inclined to believe the 2018 plan of 900 to 925 as being a pretty good forecast. (Or 730 if aapilots is the lastest info.)

The first class had 39 report to it. That is right on track for 900 to 925.

You are welcome to your opinion.

Sliceback

aapilots now showing 730 for next year.

Sliceback

Mandatory retirements for 2017 at one point was 409. Company said they were planning on 465.

So roughly a net gain of 180 (1.3%).

‘Crew age by fleet’ shows 492.
20 yr retirement list shows 527.

A net gain in 2018 of perhaps 130-180? 1-1.3%?

PRS Guitars

I’m pretty sure the original 2017 forecast was 750, though I’d need to dig to find that. So we did end up short. 900 was quoted this summer for 2018 in a crew news, then in the fall on AA pilots, it was already reduced to 730.

Not that it really matters, just not sure how they are going to handle 900+ retirements and subsequant movements generated per year in a few years.

Hueypilot

I wonder if that was in anticipation of the AIP being approved? (ACD requires more pilots) If the AIP is voted down I would imagine 750ish would be a realistic number based on retirements and last year's hiring.

Al Czervik

AIP is approved and we’ll need a less reserves.

Name User

Well I included all retirements as "retirements" not just mandatory.

That would be around 600 +/- a few I'd bet without doing hard math.

I'm guessing, like always, hiring is front loaded at the beginning of the year due to summer staffing needs. After July or so we don't need as many bodies.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see high hiring for Jan-May and then pull back to a lower number, to even include a month or two without NH classes. But that is just looking at past history.