Originally Posted by Sliceback (Post 2459096)

That means junior CA would have to drop approx. 1650 numbers in the next bid run. That's looking at the typical DOH amongst a bunch of people and not the random 2013 DOH amongst a bunch of 2001 DOH's.

The seniority list/DOH gets scrambled because there's a bunch of 2013's mixed with 1999 DOH's, then groups of 2013 DOH's, and alternating 1999 and 2013's, then fewer 2013's mixed with 2001 DOH's. It doesn't become pure 2013 DOH's until 12450 ish.

Current junior CA DOH, non AWA, is 3/2001. 10,8xx of 15,xxx. On property is 10,679 of 14,542 (73%). Junior CA percentage used to be 60-65%. Then it dropped closer to 70%. Now it's 73%. That's because the G4 FO job pays the same (FO line holder vs CA rsv) and gives you better relative seniority. So the junior CA is 3,863 numbers senior to the junior guy on the list. That's under five years to upgrade assuming typical retirement patterns.

Originally Posted by LIOG41 (Post 2459023)

Junior CA upgrade will go to mid 2013 hires in NY if they want it. Wide body FO will be mid to late 2013 hires on this next bid. That's my prediction. Things are clicking big time. Expect lots of movement.

Originally Posted by Al Czervik (Post 2459167)

I also think the guys/gals that will see the quickest upgrades are those yet to be hired.

Originally Posted by Al Czervik (Post 2459166)

I’m not seeing the same scramble. What I can see is the most senior 2013 hire is 11,6xx I see him surrounded by 2001 hires. The last of the 1999 hires are mixed with 2004 guys.

Originally Posted by Sliceback (Post 2459275)

He said mid 2013 DOH for upgrade. There's a significant bump between early and mid 2013 DOH's -



4/2013 = 12,2xx

5/2013 = 12,3xx

6/2013 = 12,45x

10/2013 = 12,48x



So first 2013 DOH to 'summer' 2013 is 700-800 numbers.



I'd find the difference between junior CA last year vs 12 months later in 2017, add maybe 150(?) numbers for the increased retirements and that would be my guess for the junior CA number a year from now.

Originally Posted by mainlineAF (Post 2459296)

I don’t know where you got those numbers but your 6/13 hires seniority number is about 450 too high (as in they’re around 11,9xx).

Originally Posted by Sliceback (Post 2459260)

Yup. Because if the difference between junior CA and the bottom of the list is only 3,863 numbers guys hired shortly will advance quicker as their upgrade opportunity intersects with the retirement peak (800+ 2021-2026, 900+ 2023-2026). So the quicker upgrade window lasts for the next 2-3(4?) years of hiring.

Another factor is the increase in additional G4 a/c. Line holding FO pays the same as 76 hrs of G2 CA rsv pay. The decision to give up 75% relative seniority, in a great gig, to upgrade to junior n/b domestic CA on reserve, makes G4 FO's pause. It's a constant topic of discussion since 1538 of 1541 G4 FO's are senior to the junior CA in the system.

Originally Posted by Pilot X (Post 2459462)

Did you leave out the G4 FO’s in PHL?

Originally Posted by Pilot X (Post 2459462)

Did you leave out the G4 FO’s in PHL?

Originally Posted by Sliceback (Post 2459275)

He said mid 2013 DOH for upgrade. There's a significant bump between early and mid 2013 DOH's -

4/2013 = 12,2xx
5/2013 = 12,3xx
6/2013 = 12,45x
10/2013 = 12,48x

So first 2013 DOH to 'summer' 2013 is 700-800 numbers.

I'd find the difference between junior CA last year vs 12 months later in 2017, add maybe 150(?) numbers for the increased retirements and that would be my guess for the junior CA number a year from now.

Originally Posted by Sliceback (Post 2459260)

Another factor is the increase in additional G4 a/c. Line holding FO pays the same as 76 hrs of G2 CA rsv pay. The decision to give up 75% relative seniority, in a great gig, to upgrade to junior n/b domestic CA on reserve, makes G4 FO's pause. It's a constant topic of discussion since 1538 of 1541 G4 FO's are senior to the junior CA in the system.

Originally Posted by Al Czervik (Post 2459651)

I was saying I don’t see 2013 hires mixed in with 1999 hires.

Originally Posted by Sliceback (Post 2459672)

It's 11,686 up to 11,918.

Actually 1998 and 1999 hires are mixed in with 2013 DOH's for about 230 numbers.

Originally Posted by Al Czervik (Post 2459166)

I’m not seeing the same scramble. What I can see is the most senior 2013 hire is 11,6xx I see him surrounded by 2001 hires. The last of the 1999 hires are mixed with 2004 guys.

Originally Posted by meyers9163 (Post 2459798)

D&I is long gone. Just a matter of when and Miami (largest one of split) is combined next year. The rest is minimal compared to Miami.

It won’t be as bad but pilots voted yes. Miami number of flights on the narrow body equipment (departures a day) isn’t close to equivalent to the number of bodies they have on the narrow bodies. It’ll be hurt some but can’t imagine it’ll be as bad as implied.

Originally Posted by Al Czervik (Post 2459796)

I’m not sure what list you’re looking at. The latest company list has 11,685 as the first 2013 hire. There are ZERO 1999 or 2001 hires in between that and 11,918. They are all 2001.

Originally Posted by Sliceback (Post 2460462)

You’re correct. I mentally switched their company date, which for f/t’s was earlier, with their Occ Seniority date, which is how I wandered off
into the woods...

Originally Posted by SurfOBX12 (Post 2460736)

I think that it is worth noting the demographic of recent new hires. Most are older and from Envoy. I would imagine most of these guys are more apt to wait for a G4 in DFW or LAX rather than commuting to LGA to sit rsv as a CA. It will be interesting to see if QOL will win over money going forward.

Originally Posted by N10DJ (Post 2461892)

How hard is it to get into CLT?? Hoping that all this hiring will speed up that base bid. I've been told it's quite senior there.

Originally Posted by Sliceback (Post 2461932)

The good news is CLT has approx. 115 retirements next year. Largest number amongst all the bases. Unless flying decreases that should provide some openings.

Originally Posted by Sliceback (Post 2468741)

Assuming 85% of retirements are Captains 24% of both the CLT and PHL CA’s are retiring in 2017-2028.
.

Originally Posted by Sliceback (Post 2468741)

2017 + 2018 retirements (early 2017 tally)(base size nearest 50) -

CLT - 210. Base size -1550. 13.5%
PHL - 159. Base size - 1300. 12.2%

Assuming 85% of retirements are Captains 24% of both the CLT and PHL CA’s are retiring in 2017-2028.

For comparison -

DFW - 81/2500. 3.2%. 6.2% of CA’s
LAX - 56/1350. 4.1%. 8.1%
MIA - 75/2100. 3.6%. 6.8%

Retirements don’t necessarily mean movement if the flying shifts elsewhere (comment for people new to the industry).

Originally Posted by TRZ06 (Post 2480371)

Another thing to consider (after the new quarterly bid) is the exodus from my LGA to PHL and CLT. FO's I fly with on the 777 are either laterally moving to the 330 or upgrading on the 767 and 320. The international 330 and 767 flying from PHL seems to be better (and growing) too.
Many who drive from NJ and PA and will shorten their commute time. Finally, these relatively senior FO's will have better seniority in the LUS system and avoid reserve altogether. On the flip side I have yet to hear of any LUS guys coming to NY at least on the 777.