900
 

Hot off the press...900 new hires in 2018 per network update email...if the stars align!

I take it 880 will be flows from the W/O’s?

Has anyone seen any internal traffic on class dates for the remainder of CY17 and CY18?

Nothing wrong with that!:)

Your lipstick is showing.

If ever there was a case for the need of a gateway to flow, it would be E175 Driver.

Any guesses on how junior group 2 captain goes in the march bid?

If it wasn’t for the 80 total displacements I think it’ would get below 11k. I’m guessing it stays around 10.8 with the displacements though.

I know a lot of 3rd listers aren’t bidding it.

There is a descent amount of LGA/MIA group 2 positions on this bid. Usually the more vacancies it usually drops pretty low. NY is a pain to commute to especially covering 3 airports.

Good! I’ll take it lol

If you are junior to the low/mid 10,000's, you should totally bid LGA 737 ca. The waters great, come on in!

Buddy of mine is Jan 13 hire on LUS side and is 11.7, so my guess is still > two years away for most of the 3rd listers.

MIA 777 went to 11.4 on the last bid, will be interesting to see where that falls too.

Keep in mind the last bid had training over Turkey day and Xmas, so the next bids may go more senior.

^^^ that's the history. Junior at the end of the year, senior in the beginning.

I still can't get my head around being short call to all three NY airports with the tolls and traffic and parking costs and our awesome contract language.

At Delta, aren't you just responsible to get yourself to one of the three airports and then it's on the company to take it from there?

Sounds awful. No one should bid it.

Didn’t group 2 captain go the most junior last year during the June bid?

That's why we can't have a defined call out time on reserve. DCA, LAX MIA are also co-terminal airports, where you have to cover more than one on reserve. I was in DC, and getting to any of the airports at the wrong time could be a royal pain.

The Delta guys in my pad say that the company will reimburse them $100 if they have to cover an EWR trip. That won't quite cover an Uber from LGA, but its close.

Nah. Flow will provide 450 or so.. Envoy 300, PSA 100, and PDT 60. I don't think any of the flow agreements take AA class size into consideration. My guess is we will see a lot more civilian street-hire pilots.

I can’t speak for the other WO. PSA is 25% of the class or 5-8 flow depending on active captains which ever number is smaller.

There are that many "street" guys avail? Or do you mean other than wholly owned?

Smaller is key, PSA will flow 100 next year. Looks like in 2017 (as of Sept) PSA was flowing 5 per month.

What are you asking? Flow (Envoy, PSA, PDT) will take care off ~ 50% of 2018 new hires. The other ~50% will come from the military or civilian (mostly regionals). If you're asking "are there that many civilian pilots available?" Definitely.. currently there are 20,000 + regional pilots. Don't forget Allegiant, Spirit, Frontier, most of those have their apps out.

900

so it will end up being just over 500 then? We get these big numbers every year and they never are as much as they say.

They were pretty close to their estimate this year. I’m guessing next year will be the same.

Every CA (737) I fly with is 55+ ... not a single one is waiting till 65. I'm curious how many pilots are leaving early.

There have been some bumps in the typical seniority related training cycle recently. I'm guessing some of that's due to the post merger base to base movement. Summer training can also be junior because senior guys would prefer to not be in training over the summer. They can choose Jan-May or Sept-Oct if they prefer.

June, or July, is the previous year's seniority numbers. Right now that means an automatic increase of 400 +/- after the new seniority list comes out to make an apples to apples comparison. IE, June 10,000 is the same as August 9,600. The same guy didn't jump 400 numbers in two months. It was more like 70 numbers but the shuffle is only done once a year.

I'll look at the numbers.

90% are leaving at 65. 10% are leaving at 60. Average retirement age is 64 because of the 10% leaving at 60 drops the average. The median and mode is 65.

The displacements play a big role. I’m almost positive (taking new seniority numbers into account) that June was the most junior group 2 captain. It was a big bid.

That's not quite correct. The "protected pilot" flow at envoy that was the result of a grievance settlement is *supposed* to give us 50% of new hire class slots at AA for everyone still here that was hired before OCT of '11. However, the company has chosen to take the minimum metering of 25/mo as the target instead, which the union is grieving (for all the good it will do.) We should flow 450 from envoy next year, but my guess is it will end up being 300 despite the contract language. Just another broken promise.

They say that but they'll be here to 65 and 70 if they raise the age.

So which part is "not quite correct"? Didn't the last 824 pilot flow in July? I thought Envoy flow goes down to 35% after the last 824 pilot.

If my finger counting is correct junior CA jumped 309 numbers in June. In the five months since then it's dropped 197 numbers. That's 506 numbers in six months.

People don’t bid NY/MIA/LAX, they all routinely go to new hires.

Do you also believe them when they tell you they're married to French supermodels or own their own Gulfstreams?

I don’t understand what you’re saying.

It looks like junior CA in May was 10,694. June was 11,003. A bump of 309.

The CA that was 11,003 has moved up 500+ numbers. The junior CA in November is 197 numbers junior to the former 11,003 CA.

Wth is a protected pilot

Ok I get that.

A defined group of eagle guys that were hired pre 10/11/11 that resulted when the company asked and ALPA granted all aircraft be transferred out/away from eagle “for bankruptcy protection purposes”. Glass/Kirby and company then proceeded to whipsaw eagle and give former eagle aircraft to various regionals. Eagles pilot ranks were cut in half and closed multiple domiciles. Promised a gold bar got a turd.

A further modification of the protected pilot agreement occurred with the signing of the second bankruptcy contract. Upon delivery of the 40th E-175 to envoy (which we have received now) the flow for the protected pilot group goes up to 50% of AA new hire classes, meterable to 25. (I'm not going to include the exact text, but that's the gist.) So, the contractual flow rate for envoy during the protected pilot group does actually take AA class size into consideration. That's all I was pointing out. Unfortunately, the company has chosen to go with the minimum they think they can get away with, and not the spirit and intent of the agreement.