My article spoke of investing immediately before every crash/downturn as well. We only have investment access to limited market history in our lives.

He didn’t speak of investing at the peak of every downturn. Look at any historical Dow chart which goes back to the 1800’s and you’ll see how he cherry picked to get his desired outcome.

I don’t think he could have made a better case for investing at a bad time. 1972, 87, 99, 2007. Take a look at the graph. Looks like it’s been good to stay in.

I can’t help you with the when’s of when to sell. Nobody can consistently pick tops or bottoms. As a value investor I like to buy where there is value. Buying at double the long term Schiller PE makes no sense to me. I also look at the market cap to gdp to get a sense of valuation. Last fall we were 19% down from the top and that was right around where I would typically hunker down, get bearish and wait for a market drop. The Fed stepped in and we are at new highs. I wasn’t 100% invested since then and I missed some of this years run, again because I’m not comfortable at these nosebleed valuations. History tells us that a recession will come and a market pullback of 50-65% will come as well. That’s a run of the mill pullback. If there is a policy error along the way it will be worse.

Fair enough. What does “ typically hunker down, get bearish and wait for a market drop.” mean with relation to your investments and have you run a scenario analysis of both options?

Look at ‘26-56. Look at ‘66-96. It’s up but nowhere near his results. Cherry picked.

Why do I feel like I’m being cross examined?

I think you may need to re read the article.

I’m interested because what you do doesn’t jive with my investment strategy. I’m not sure if that means you move investments to bonds (lock-in capital gain taxes) or bury it in a coffee can. Honestly interested but NBD.

Won’t be that case coming from a regional lol