05-23-2024Quote:
But between you and me, I really don't see AA furloughing. Not unless this crap show goes on for another year +. As it is, everything we are seeing is lock down induced. From the sharp rise in unemployment numbers to the sharp decline in air travel. As the lockdowns and quarantines are lifted..and people begin to tip toe back to normalcy, we'll see a proportionate increase in travel demand again.
This isn't like 9/11. Back then people were genuinely terrified of getting on an airplane. Paranoia was everywhere, and everyone was convinced that flying was a death gamble because of the terrorists.
This is different. The empty planes are not because of a fear of flying. It's because of this forced quarantine and lock down we are under. Business flyers are working from home, and by definition NOT traveling. There's the bulk of our customers. Vacation flyers don't have anywhere to go..not with places shut down. But as soon as people begin returning to work and parks and other tourist locations open again, the demand for air travel will also return. Not all at once, but enough of an upward trend month over month that furloughs would be entirely off the table.
Originally Posted by FetaCheese
Yeah, no telling. Last time we had flow backs the regionals sputtered along while all the majors furloughed. So who knows.But between you and me, I really don't see AA furloughing. Not unless this crap show goes on for another year +. As it is, everything we are seeing is lock down induced. From the sharp rise in unemployment numbers to the sharp decline in air travel. As the lockdowns and quarantines are lifted..and people begin to tip toe back to normalcy, we'll see a proportionate increase in travel demand again.
This isn't like 9/11. Back then people were genuinely terrified of getting on an airplane. Paranoia was everywhere, and everyone was convinced that flying was a death gamble because of the terrorists.
This is different. The empty planes are not because of a fear of flying. It's because of this forced quarantine and lock down we are under. Business flyers are working from home, and by definition NOT traveling. There's the bulk of our customers. Vacation flyers don't have anywhere to go..not with places shut down. But as soon as people begin returning to work and parks and other tourist locations open again, the demand for air travel will also return. Not all at once, but enough of an upward trend month over month that furloughs would be entirely off the table.
I’ll take the other viewpoint. We just added $6.5 billion in loans, 10 year terms. That’s 650 million plus interest every year that comes off our bottom line. We only made 1.7 billion last year. There are no good estimates to what demand will look like on the other side of this. I hope the mechanics are proud of their deal, cuz bk court will rip it up. Maybe we can tread water for a while but I think they will just want to go to court and get favorable deals with all the unions. Any talk of hiring is silly to me at this point. If I gambled, furloughs and bk would get most of my chips, and I’m by no means furlough proof seniority wise, so this hits hard. I love the optimism by so many here, but we are not well positioned.
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