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Old 03-22-2020, 04:43 PM
  #91  
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I'm trying to do public math. But hear me out. I'm trying to figure AA's bare bones no flight ops monthly cost. Why? Because I don't think we are going to get a cash infusion (grant).

~200 WB @ $1m per month = $200m
~800 NB @ $250k per month = $200m
~600 RJs @ $100k per month = $60m
Total AC leases $460m per month

Keep CP's and fleet managers/Supv on staff only, ~$20m per month (guess)

No FAs, rampers, agents, DX, and furlough 50% mtc folks but 30% of corporate = $75m

Gate leases and airport space = ?? Maybe $100m/month

Debt payments $100m/month

Round up to $1.0-$1.2b per month. This is about what you get if looking at our annual report and taking 30% of labor costs, and zeroing or nearly zeroing our most other categories (get roughly $13b in annual cash costs).

Start selling tickets for August spool up. Would leave us with around $2-$3b in cash with no government loans (so would be more with them).

I think this is the only way we can survive.

Last edited by Name User; 03-22-2020 at 04:53 PM.
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:39 PM
  #92  
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Originally Posted by Name User View Post
I'm trying to do public math. But hear me out. I'm trying to figure AA's bare bones no flight ops monthly cost. Why? Because I don't think we are going to get a cash infusion (grant).

~200 WB @ $1m per month = $200m
~800 NB @ $250k per month = $200m
~600 RJs @ $100k per month = $60m
Total AC leases $460m per month

Keep CP's and fleet managers/Supv on staff only, ~$20m per month (guess)

No FAs, rampers, agents, DX, and furlough 50% mtc folks but 30% of corporate = $75m

Gate leases and airport space = ?? Maybe $100m/month

Debt payments $100m/month

Round up to $1.0-$1.2b per month. This is about what you get if looking at our annual report and taking 30% of labor costs, and zeroing or nearly zeroing our most other categories (get roughly $13b in annual cash costs).

Start selling tickets for August spool up. Would leave us with around $2-$3b in cash with no government loans (so would be more with them).

I think this is the only way we can survive.
Don’t forget the 3b cash requirement or creditors will come knocking. A lot cash to bleed on hope for August.
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Old 03-23-2020, 04:51 AM
  #93  
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Originally Posted by stbloc View Post
Don’t forget the 3b cash requirement or creditors will come knocking. A lot cash to bleed on hope for August.
Sell $3b in AA stock.
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Old 03-23-2020, 06:17 AM
  #94  
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Originally Posted by watch View Post
Sell $3b in AA stock.
At the current price, that’s a lot of stock.
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Old 03-23-2020, 06:32 AM
  #95  
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Originally Posted by rld1k View Post
China has 0 new cases so obviously we won't see this rate of infection indefinitely
where did you get that info? I see 116 new cases on the 21st and new 82 cases on the 22nd. Not a lot of new cases but last week they did have it down to 0. Now it’s creesping up again. I bet this will be the story until a vaccine comes out.
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Old 03-23-2020, 06:56 AM
  #96  
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Originally Posted by AAL24 View Post
where did you get that info? I see 116 new cases on the 21st and new 82 cases on the 22nd. Not a lot of new cases but last week they did have it down to 0. Now it’s creesping up again. I bet this will be the story until a vaccine comes out.
That's a non factor, there are 1.4 billion people there.
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Old 03-23-2020, 10:32 AM
  #97  
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Originally Posted by rld1k View Post
That's a non factor, there are 1.4 billion people there.
They also mostly stopped the testing.
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:27 PM
  #98  
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Originally Posted by Name User View Post
I really, really, hope I'm wrong but honestly do you see people going back over there any time soon? Maybe London. But I wouldn't touch Europe as a tourist until a vaccine is available. Although, super cheap hotels and flights might entice people (but no yield in that).
The curtailment of travel is only meant to slow down the rate of spread. Do you honestly think you’d be more likely to get infected in Europe than in the US?
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