https://seekingalpha.com/article/434...ion-value-left

 

I've read enough dumb articles by this guy to not take any advice from him. Lots of things could happen, like a second stimulus. You think the government bailed out American and then will just let them go bk? It's a gamble but I'm betting AA will be at least $12 by august. Calls are cheap today with people panic selling over buffet.

 

Relying on the Govt to make smart "investment" decisions is the LAST reason to think that they wouldn't let them just go BK. Imagine, if you will, it gets bad enough that the govt just "brokers" a deal between the legacies where one doesn't cease, but is forcibly folded into the others.
At the end of the day, the govt only worries about one thing, employment. If someone comes in and says little to no one besides mgmt will be let go, it will make heads spin to see how fast one of the legacies could be forced to fragment.

 

I do not think a 2nd stimulus is coming. And stimulus or not, the prospects of American being able to handle its situation outside of the courts is looking bleaker by the day.

 

I am with you. Over 25 BILLION, BILLION, in debt, less than 7 Billion liquid in the bank. All other assets for liquidity need to be sold to stay solvent, but that will last a few months at a loss of 50 million as day (and they try to spin that as a positive). Revenue way low and far below even operating cost. Stock below 10 dollars a share. No way to create any positive capital, even if they tried. The best and and only way AAL gets through this is through BK, and that’s even going to be ugly. Creditors are not just going to take a bath for AAL to try and be solvent. The only way they unload the debt, get somewhat better payoffs, and gut all the employee cost contracts is BK. It’s coming in short order, along with massive staffing cuts. AAL will not survive without it, and will barely make it through with it. I see AAL as a medium sized domestic airline with very little international flying by this time next year. Winter is coming, and it will change AAL for decades. Oh look here come the chickens to come home to roost.

-You can be an optimist....wearing rose colored glasses

-You can be a pessimist....and say its over

-Or you can a realist....see what coming, plan for it, and be ready to face it head on.

The future is bleak, but not without a light. If AAL has a way to unload its debts, it should. Otherwise it’s done in my opinion.

 

There’s an old joke about what the quickest method is to become a millionaire.

It’s to be a billionaire...and buy an airline.

Funny that Buffet never heard it...

 

Financial media is a complete joke. Seeking aloha being one of the worst. It is a blog that will publish anyone. As to the rest of it is all worthless. How many times do clips of all the financial media in 07- 08 saying there was no collapse coming. The other side of the coin is commentators who latch on to some actual good research and write articles knowing if they are right they look like a genius and if they are wrong no one will remember. In this case you get the well they saw 08 coming. Well a lot of academics saw 08 coming and were screaming about it. We are already doing it again with COVID. I just read an article I guess I was supposed to take the bank because this journalist wrote a book about pandemics in the 90s. The media said look how a head of the curve she was. Well not really the CDC, WHO, and pretty much every other public health authority has been warning about this for decades. One of educations greatest failings is convincing people corporate/government debt is any way similar to personal debt.

 

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-t...ings-call.aspx

 

Standard heads up, it’s from seekingalpha, but with his long position, it seems he discovered some good news.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seeking...breathing-room

 

The first bailout was not exactly politically popular, no way another gets through when things are much much less panicked.