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Latest estimates?
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Originally Posted by C5Drvr
(Post 3076057)
Latest estimates?
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk |
Originally Posted by C5Drvr
(Post 3076057)
Latest estimates?
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Originally Posted by Dobbs18
(Post 3076119)
Mostly because its just a round number, but really i have no *******ing clue.
SWA has the only plan I trust... stock up on cash, pay whatever it takes to maintain capacity knowing others WILL bleed out before you, grab market share, and make up the money in the long run. That plan is sufficiently credible that they should be able to borrow even more money than initially planned, if things stay uglier for longer. |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3076267)
You and lots of airline managers.
SWA has the only plan I trust... stock up on cash, pay whatever it takes to maintain capacity knowing others WILL bleed out before you, grab market share, and make up the money in the long run. That plan is sufficiently credible that they should be able to borrow even more money than initially planned, if things stay uglier for longer. |
Originally Posted by Dobbs18
(Post 3076119)
well they, APA and company forecasts from Sept vacancy, say we will be about 1,327 pilots overstaffed for summer of 2021. I havent seen any adjustments from those numbers yet, so that to me is the bar right now...hopefully with improved demand and continued LOAs that number can keep going down! If i had to put money down on a bet, which I dont want to, I'd say 1,000 right now. Mostly because its just a round number, but really i have no *******ing clue.
If they furlough this October, they will need to start the hiring and training process again less than a year later since it takes several months from starting the hiring to actually having a line pilot. Not sure that would make sense. |
Originally Posted by daOldMan
(Post 3076340)
The 1000 pilots overstaffed for summer 2021 is about the same number that will retire in the second half of summer 2021 and 2022. Since furloughs really don't make sense if they are less than 18 months, I would guess that being overstaffed for summer of 2021 would mean that we will be understaffed for the summer of 2022.
If they furlough this October, they will need to start the hiring and training process again less than a year later since it takes several months from starting the hiring to actually having a line pilot. Not sure that would make sense. |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3076267)
You and lots of airline managers.
SWA has the only plan I trust... stock up on cash, pay whatever it takes to maintain capacity knowing others WILL bleed out before you, grab market share, and make up the money in the long run. That plan is sufficiently credible that they should be able to borrow even more money than initially planned, if things stay uglier for longer. |
Awwww...somebody needs a hug!
|
Originally Posted by DoggiePoo
(Post 3076892)
It just amazes me. In over 40 years in this industry how you young pilots are always so delusional. Especially you flow through guys. You know exactly how to fix everything. UAL just "sweetened" it's exit deal for personnel, Again, if you knew anything about airline history, bankruptcies since deregulation, you would know that SWA "plan" is Exactly how Every airline ended up in bankruptcy last time. As stated earlier. Your company is in debt up to it's hairline. SWA at least has cash on hand already. The only reason your management has not spoken to you about furloughs is because it would be completely fruitless and a waste of time. You are the first to head into bankruptcy court and will end up on the copping block. Cut up into pieces for UAL,SWA and DL to scavenge your carcass. You think it is all a joke. That I have some beef with AA or something. But when an old timer like me reads these boards and reads yours as opposed to the others. Your delusions of grandeur are beyond limit. Wake up little boys. My only sorrow is for those friends that stayed at AA from TWA and are going to get shafted again. At least they know the drill. You young kids are about to find out the hard way. Just look at the terminals. Look at the type of passenger traveling right now. They are Greyhound people. Very few businessmen. Ticket prices for the few that are traveling are so low they are attracting the people that are getting the extra $600.xx above unemployment. TSA numbers reflect exactly that. Nowhere near enough of a rise in pax load factor to pay for all those shiny new airplanes sitting on the ground. Your CEO is already looking for a way out of the financial mess and Wall Street has already asked him his plan and if that plan is bankruptcy. 30% is a good number to start with just like every other major. When the sale and bankruptcy come it's a staple if you are lucky. Probably not because AA mainline is not ALPA. Your regionals being ALPA are meaningless. The word is out about you young guys and the big freight companies will not take you on the rebound. Good luck, October 1 is. about 90 days away.
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Originally Posted by Dobbs18
(Post 3076906)
TWA....now we know the beef with AA...fyi I wasnt around for that so dont start some ****ing tirade with me about how you took it in the shorts...why not try a different approach to life, I bet you and the unfortunate people around you would be alot happier?!
Read it and weep. Your time will come. This industry does it to most. If you actually are, dare I say, fortunate enough to make it to 65. The industry will literally bring you down to earth. If you heed the warnings to live prudently. If not. Well, sucks to be you. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/b...ak-future.html |
Twa guys are all the same. We get it, you got screwed, aal sucks butt, and you know it all. I just had a dude at the atrium give me a whole unsolicited rundown on how he got screwed. I didnt even start the conversation with him, it must eat at him 24x7
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Originally Posted by DoggiePoo
(Post 3076892)
It just amazes me. In over 40 years in this industry how you young pilots are always so delusional. Especially you flow through guys. You know exactly how to fix everything. UAL just "sweetened" it's exit deal for personnel, Again, if you knew anything about airline history, bankruptcies since deregulation, you would know that SWA "plan" is Exactly how Every airline ended up in bankruptcy last time. As stated earlier. Your company is in debt up to it's hairline. SWA at least has cash on hand already. The only reason your management has not spoken to you about furloughs is because it would be completely fruitless and a waste of time. You are the first to head into bankruptcy court and will end up on the copping block. Cut up into pieces for UAL,SWA and DL to scavenge your carcass. You think it is all a joke. That I have some beef with AA or something. But when an old timer like me reads these boards and reads yours as opposed to the others. Your delusions of grandeur are beyond limit. Wake up little boys. My only sorrow is for those friends that stayed at AA from TWA and are going to get shafted again. At least they know the drill. You young kids are about to find out the hard way. Just look at the terminals. Look at the type of passenger traveling right now. They are Greyhound people. Very few businessmen. Ticket prices for the few that are traveling are so low they are attracting the people that are getting the extra $600.xx above unemployment. TSA numbers reflect exactly that. Nowhere near enough of a rise in pax load factor to pay for all those shiny new airplanes sitting on the ground. Your CEO is already looking for a way out of the financial mess and Wall Street has already asked him his plan and if that plan is bankruptcy. 30% is a good number to start with just like every other major. When the sale and bankruptcy come it's a staple if you are lucky. Probably not because AA mainline is not ALPA. Your regionals being ALPA are meaningless. The word is out about you young guys and the big freight companies will not take you on the rebound. Good luck, October 1 is. about 90 days away.
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Originally Posted by DoggiePoo
(Post 3076912)
Read it and weep. Your time will come. This industry does it to most. If you actually are, dare I say, fortunate enough to make it to 65. The industry will literally bring you down to earth. If you heed the warnings to live prudently. If not. Well, sucks to be you.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/b...ak-future.html |
Meh...it’s APC. Don’t take some of these clowns too seriously - especially the ones that created accounts after COVID.
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Originally Posted by Armyguy
(Post 3076914)
Twa guys are all the same. We get it, you got screwed, aal sucks butt, and you know it all. I just had a dude at the atrium give me a whole unsolicited rundown on how he got screwed. I didnt even start the conversation with him, it must eat at him 24x7
I’ve never met a T-way pilot I didn’t like. I flew with a lot of them as a new hire at Eagle, and then again after flowing. Never once heard them *****ing about anything. The FA’s are the best as well. Maybe you caught the single outlier? |
Originally Posted by Dobbs18
(Post 3076934)
you are ACTUALLY rooting for pain and suffering for a fellow pilot! Unbelievable...why dont you call my 8 and 6 year old kids and you can tell them that you are hoping for their Dad to lose his job while you're at it?! This is the last time I will waste time responding to you, have a nice life Richard.
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Originally Posted by DoggiePoo
(Post 3076892)
It just amazes me. In over 40 years in this industry how you young pilots are always so delusional. Especially you flow through guys. You know exactly how to fix everything. UAL just "sweetened" it's exit deal for personnel, Again, if you knew anything about airline history, bankruptcies since deregulation, you would know that SWA "plan" is Exactly how Every airline ended up in bankruptcy last time. As stated earlier. Your company is in debt up to it's hairline. SWA at least has cash on hand already. The only reason your management has not spoken to you about furloughs is because it would be completely fruitless and a waste of time. You are the first to head into bankruptcy court and will end up on the copping block. Cut up into pieces for UAL,SWA and DL to scavenge your carcass. You think it is all a joke. That I have some beef with AA or something. But when an old timer like me reads these boards and reads yours as opposed to the others. Your delusions of grandeur are beyond limit. Wake up little boys. My only sorrow is for those friends that stayed at AA from TWA and are going to get shafted again. At least they know the drill. You young kids are about to find out the hard way. Just look at the terminals. Look at the type of passenger traveling right now. They are Greyhound people. Very few businessmen. Ticket prices for the few that are traveling are so low they are attracting the people that are getting the extra $600.xx above unemployment. TSA numbers reflect exactly that. Nowhere near enough of a rise in pax load factor to pay for all those shiny new airplanes sitting on the ground. Your CEO is already looking for a way out of the financial mess and Wall Street has already asked him his plan and if that plan is bankruptcy. 30% is a good number to start with just like every other major. When the sale and bankruptcy come it's a staple if you are lucky. Probably not because AA mainline is not ALPA. Your regionals being ALPA are meaningless. The word is out about you young guys and the big freight companies will not take you on the rebound. Good luck, October 1 is. about 90 days away.
|
DoggiePoo reminds me of this guy
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...9daef9250e.jpg Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
Furlough Estimates
Originally Posted by DoggiePoo
(Post 3076892)
It just amazes me. In over 40 years in this industry how you young pilots are always so delusional. Especially you flow through guys. You know exactly how to fix everything. UAL just "sweetened" it's exit deal for personnel, Again, if you knew anything about airline history, bankruptcies since deregulation, you would know that SWA "plan" is Exactly how Every airline ended up in bankruptcy last time. As stated earlier. Your company is in debt up to it's hairline. SWA at least has cash on hand already. The only reason your management has not spoken to you about furloughs is because it would be completely fruitless and a waste of time. You are the first to head into bankruptcy court and will end up on the copping block. Cut up into pieces for UAL,SWA and DL to scavenge your carcass. You think it is all a joke. That I have some beef with AA or something. But when an old timer like me reads these boards and reads yours as opposed to the others. Your delusions of grandeur are beyond limit. Wake up little boys. My only sorrow is for those friends that stayed at AA from TWA and are going to get shafted again. At least they know the drill. You young kids are about to find out the hard way. Just look at the terminals. Look at the type of passenger traveling right now. They are Greyhound people. Very few businessmen. Ticket prices for the few that are traveling are so low they are attracting the people that are getting the extra $600.xx above unemployment. TSA numbers reflect exactly that. Nowhere near enough of a rise in pax load factor to pay for all those shiny new airplanes sitting on the ground. Your CEO is already looking for a way out of the financial mess and Wall Street has already asked him his plan and if that plan is bankruptcy. 30% is a good number to start with just like every other major. When the sale and bankruptcy come it's a staple if you are lucky. Probably not because AA mainline is not ALPA. Your regionals being ALPA are meaningless. The word is out about you young guys and the big freight companies will not take you on the rebound. Good luck, October 1 is. about 90 days away.
What’s amazing is you have zero clue how our “up to our hairline” debt is structured vs. UAL/DAL, and what that means. But stay grumpy homes... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
Doggiepoo is a big internet tough guy, his tombstone will read “here lies a jerkoff who was very active on internet message boards for 4 months on 2020.” If you presented your argument with better tact, you might actually help guys through this, but like so many in this business, you got hosed and now wish it on the next generation. Hope you make some dough shorting AA stock you prick.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
Only other dude I can think of who’s such an angry troll is Route66. Sometimes I wonder if these two are one and the same.
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Am I the only one who sees Doggie Poo yelling at clouds and just completely skips his posts? I would find the ignore button but even that would be more effort than he deserves.
|
Just flew through Charlotte to Vegas. Full airport full airplanes.
Any idea on how Americans daily cash burn is doing right now? Daily pax flown? That sort of thing. Looked like they were doing pretty well to me. |
Originally Posted by DoggiePoo
(Post 3076892)
It just amazes me. In over 40 years in this industry how you young pilots are always so delusional. Especially you flow through guys. You know exactly how to fix everything. UAL just "sweetened" it's exit deal for personnel, Again, if you knew anything about airline history, bankruptcies since deregulation, you would know that SWA "plan" is Exactly how Every airline ended up in bankruptcy last time. As stated earlier. Your company is in debt up to it's hairline. SWA at least has cash on hand already. The only reason your management has not spoken to you about furloughs is because it would be completely fruitless and a waste of time. You are the first to head into bankruptcy court and will end up on the copping block. Cut up into pieces for UAL,SWA and DL to scavenge your carcass. You think it is all a joke. That I have some beef with AA or something. But when an old timer like me reads these boards and reads yours as opposed to the others. Your delusions of grandeur are beyond limit. Wake up little boys. My only sorrow is for those friends that stayed at AA from TWA and are going to get shafted again. At least they know the drill. You young kids are about to find out the hard way. Just look at the terminals. Look at the type of passenger traveling right now. They are Greyhound people. Very few businessmen. Ticket prices for the few that are traveling are so low they are attracting the people that are getting the extra $600.xx above unemployment. TSA numbers reflect exactly that. Nowhere near enough of a rise in pax load factor to pay for all those shiny new airplanes sitting on the ground. Your CEO is already looking for a way out of the financial mess and Wall Street has already asked him his plan and if that plan is bankruptcy. 30% is a good number to start with just like every other major. When the sale and bankruptcy come it's a staple if you are lucky. Probably not because AA mainline is not ALPA. Your regionals being ALPA are meaningless. The word is out about you young guys and the big freight companies will not take you on the rebound. Good luck, October 1 is. about 90 days away.
|
The “furloughs don’t make sense until 18 months” assumes you can make payroll and that you know demand will return. Neither applies here.
there may or may not be furloughs, but if cash is tight today, mgmt will figure out tomorrow tomorrow |
Originally Posted by DoggiePoo
(Post 3076892)
It just amazes me. In over 40 years in this industry how you young pilots are always so delusional. Especially you flow through guys. You know exactly how to fix everything. UAL just "sweetened" it's exit deal for personnel, Again, if you knew anything about airline history, bankruptcies since deregulation, you would know that SWA "plan" is Exactly how Every airline ended up in bankruptcy last time. As stated earlier. Your company is in debt up to it's hairline. SWA at least has cash on hand already. The only reason your management has not spoken to you about furloughs is because it would be completely fruitless and a waste of time. You are the first to head into bankruptcy court and will end up on the copping block. Cut up into pieces for UAL,SWA and DL to scavenge your carcass. You think it is all a joke. That I have some beef with AA or something. But when an old timer like me reads these boards and reads yours as opposed to the others. Your delusions of grandeur are beyond limit. Wake up little boys. My only sorrow is for those friends that stayed at AA from TWA and are going to get shafted again. At least they know the drill. You young kids are about to find out the hard way. Just look at the terminals. Look at the type of passenger traveling right now. They are Greyhound people. Very few businessmen. Ticket prices for the few that are traveling are so low they are attracting the people that are getting the extra $600.xx above unemployment. TSA numbers reflect exactly that. Nowhere near enough of a rise in pax load factor to pay for all those shiny new airplanes sitting on the ground. Your CEO is already looking for a way out of the financial mess and Wall Street has already asked him his plan and if that plan is bankruptcy. 30% is a good number to start with just like every other major. When the sale and bankruptcy come it's a staple if you are lucky. Probably not because AA mainline is not ALPA. Your regionals being ALPA are meaningless. The word is out about you young guys and the big freight companies will not take you on the rebound. Good luck, October 1 is. about 90 days away.
OK Boomer. |
Originally Posted by DoggiePoo
(Post 3076892)
It just amazes me. In over 40 years in this industry how you young pilots are always so delusional. Especially you flow through guys. You know exactly how to fix everything. UAL just "sweetened" it's exit deal for personnel, Again, if you knew anything about airline history, bankruptcies since deregulation, you would know that SWA "plan" is Exactly how Every airline ended up in bankruptcy last time. As stated earlier. Your company is in debt up to it's hairline. SWA at least has cash on hand already. The only reason your management has not spoken to you about furloughs is because it would be completely fruitless and a waste of time. You are the first to head into bankruptcy court and will end up on the copping block. Cut up into pieces for UAL,SWA and DL to scavenge your carcass. You think it is all a joke. That I have some beef with AA or something. But when an old timer like me reads these boards and reads yours as opposed to the others. Your delusions of grandeur are beyond limit. Wake up little boys. My only sorrow is for those friends that stayed at AA from TWA and are going to get shafted again. At least they know the drill. You young kids are about to find out the hard way. Just look at the terminals. Look at the type of passenger traveling right now. They are Greyhound people. Very few businessmen. Ticket prices for the few that are traveling are so low they are attracting the people that are getting the extra $600.xx above unemployment. TSA numbers reflect exactly that. Nowhere near enough of a rise in pax load factor to pay for all those shiny new airplanes sitting on the ground. Your CEO is already looking for a way out of the financial mess and Wall Street has already asked him his plan and if that plan is bankruptcy. 30% is a good number to start with just like every other major. When the sale and bankruptcy come it's a staple if you are lucky. Probably not because AA mainline is not ALPA. Your regionals being ALPA are meaningless. The word is out about you young guys and the big freight companies will not take you on the rebound. Good luck, October 1 is. about 90 days away.
TSA numbers AA is in debt because they bought new airplanes. |
You guys are getting trolled by someone’s sock puppet account. Lots of those popping up since February. Perhaps a little more moderation and a little less pontification on every subject/topic on this site, eh RickAir777?
|
I like his response. I don't agree with it but it was interesting to read. It is a little overdone, like a caricature of a grumpy old guy, but whatever.
"You young kids" "After 40 years in this industry" "Get off my lawn" etc etc |
Originally Posted by thrust
(Post 3077292)
You guys are getting trolled by someone’s sock puppet account. Lots of those popping up since February. Perhaps a little more moderation and a little less pontification on every subject/topic on this site, eh RickAir777?
|
Originally Posted by thrust
(Post 3077292)
You guys are getting trolled by someone’s sock puppet account. Lots of those popping up since February. Perhaps a little more moderation and a little less pontification on every subject/topic on this site, eh RickAir777?
|
Originally Posted by Dobbs18
(Post 3077566)
you forgot a 7....Rick flies the Quad-7, not the triple...lol
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Originally Posted by DoggiePoo
(Post 3076892)
It just amazes me. In over 40 years in this industry how you young pilots are always so delusional. Especially you flow through guys. You know exactly how to fix everything. UAL just "sweetened" it's exit deal for personnel, Again, if you knew anything about airline history, bankruptcies since deregulation, you would know that SWA "plan" is Exactly how Every airline ended up in bankruptcy last time. As stated earlier. Your company is in debt up to it's hairline. SWA at least has cash on hand already. The only reason your management has not spoken to you about furloughs is because it would be completely fruitless and a waste of time. You are the first to head into bankruptcy court and will end up on the copping block. Cut up into pieces for UAL,SWA and DL to scavenge your carcass. You think it is all a joke. That I have some beef with AA or something. But when an old timer like me reads these boards and reads yours as opposed to the others. Your delusions of grandeur are beyond limit. Wake up little boys. My only sorrow is for those friends that stayed at AA from TWA and are going to get shafted again. At least they know the drill. You young kids are about to find out the hard way. Just look at the terminals. Look at the type of passenger traveling right now. They are Greyhound people. Very few businessmen. Ticket prices for the few that are traveling are so low they are attracting the people that are getting the extra $600.xx above unemployment. TSA numbers reflect exactly that. Nowhere near enough of a rise in pax load factor to pay for all those shiny new airplanes sitting on the ground. Your CEO is already looking for a way out of the financial mess and Wall Street has already asked him his plan and if that plan is bankruptcy. 30% is a good number to start with just like every other major. When the sale and bankruptcy come it's a staple if you are lucky. Probably not because AA mainline is not ALPA. Your regionals being ALPA are meaningless. The word is out about you young guys and the big freight companies will not take you on the rebound. Good luck, October 1 is. about 90 days away.
I didn't flow. I don't work for SWA. The only reason I think their plan is practical is because others will go BK first before SWA, and if it comes to liquidation of somebody, SWA will be around to pick up the pieces. They're not out-running the bear, they're just out-running most of the other campers. |
https://upgradedpoints.com/coronavirus-impact
Found this website that seems to aggregate all sorts of Covid related airline data, including sources, and presents it in a decently readable format. Appears to be updated daily. For all of you Nostradamus' out there! |
Originally Posted by Squeakygreaser
(Post 3077130)
Any idea on how Americans daily cash burn is doing right now?
$40 million dollar cash burn per day in June That translates to roughly $1.2 billion dollars for the month of June. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...-idUSKBN23H2GX |
Originally Posted by iahflyr
(Post 3077701)
Straight from Doug Parker a couple days ago.
$40 million dollar cash burn per day in June That translates to roughly $1.2 billion dollars for the month of June. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...-idUSKBN23H2GX Sure that is actually ten million a day less then we were expecting and continuing to fall. It’s not sunshine and rainbows but I am happy if we managed to cut our burn by 300 million a month. AA is aiming for the same point your guys are cash burn zero at the end of the year. |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3077651)
I'm not young.
I didn't flow. I don't work for SWA. The only reason I think their plan is practical is because others will go BK first before SWA, and if it comes to liquidation of somebody, SWA will be around to pick up the pieces. They're not out-running the bear, they're just out-running most of the other campers. That saying never gets old, when used for just about anything :) |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3077651)
The only reason I think their plan is practical is because others will go BK first before SWA, and if it comes to liquidation of somebody, SWA will be around to pick up the pieces. They're not out-running the bear, they're just out-running most of the other campers.
|
Originally Posted by Gone Flying
(Post 3077935)
I dont work for WN either but think rick is right. 1 fleet type, little to no cost on pilot training as they expand and contract, and scrooge mcduckian amounts of cash in the vault has lead to an airline that can out wait their opponent and be the most flexible in the revovery.
So I get why fewer fleets is more cost effective, but why is Delta the most profitable flying a billion different fleet types, many that are very fuel inefficient? They figure out how to make it work somehow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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