Furlough Estimates
 

From recent OBAP career fair looks like American will be 2-3000 heavy in January? Is this accurate to furlough figures for fall?

OBAP is having career fairs right now? Huh?

Furlough Estimates
 

I don’t know exactly which numbers you speak of but AA has said a number of times they are basing their numbers off summer ‘21 when it is closer to 1,800. Now subtract planner retirements and a few other factors and we are closer to 1000-1200 not counting any additional VPLOA/VSTLOAs. 1000-1200 is the running assumption from a lot of much smarter people than me.

EDIT: to clarify, that’s the estimated overage, AA and APA have said several times avoiding furlough is the goal and have not stated any indications towards a furlough on October 1.


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I was thinking the same thing. Website says the 2020 event was cancelled.

a covid career fair?

They have virtual ones!

That is so off that it makes me question anything OBAP ever puts out in the future.

Are they the new Kit Darby?

Somebody just posted a great take on AA furloughs, and why we likely WON'T furlough, on the Below The Line Facebook page. If you're the facespace, I highly suggest you go read it.

Man, the vultures are circling.

I hope you didn't pay for it.

Who is that somebody and what model are they using to predict travel demand going forward that entails no furloughs?

The numbers are based on endless cash on hand. Every airline has a limited amount of cash and are trying to outrun the clock. AA would be just fine if Parker could find someone to write him a blank check, but as in all the airlines that is not the case .

That was nothing more than a feel good drunken rant.

SCA’s posts have been the only data driven analysis put forth on BTL regarding staffing going into July 2021. He shows a surplus of 1307 after accounting for normal attrition.

1307 assuming no more VPLOA or VSTLOA. That’s July 2021. I’m assuming that number will decrease after then and retirements will continue. That 1307 will be 9 months from the big 10/1/2020 date. Not worth a furlough if you used the standard 18-24 months cost/benefit timeline of a furlough.

while I agree i still think they will clip 1,000 to 1,300 people come Oct 1. If they have to bring some back early so be it, that would be great. But I think they will try and save what they can and be conservative with regards to demand returing. Just my gut based on reading endless amounts of crap on the internet and from company sources. I think we furlough the least amount of people out of the big 3. Fingers crossed. I think our LOAs if they keep up the great participation numbers could keep those numbers down alot.

I guess we’ll know in August

AAL loss per day will be down to appox $50M/day by October (likely less by then). If a furlough of 1,300 pilots were to occur in October, it would save 1% of the LOSS PER DAY - i.e. 1,300 pilots x 73 hours/mo x $137/hr = $13,001,300. $13,001,300/30 = $433,376.67 savings per day. It would likely be more with benefits. The company would then spend $30,000,000 to retrain these pilots in the not too distant future. I don't see the point.

Where are you getting these numbers from?

-Reserve is 73 or 76 average of 74.5
-Average FO pay for year 1 ($91) and 2 ($138) is $114.

AA can cut cost else where.

Following your logic until it cost $30m to train 1300 pilots

But then used a calculator and see that is $23k per pilot. Which sounds like it may be in the ballpark

But they break even on that training cost by furloughing for 2-3 months.

However each fulough requires at least two training events. I've heard as much as 4.

Interesting furlough cost article

https://www.aviatoranalysis.com/2020...-of-furloughs/

Misinformation
 

If I may clarify something. What the original poster stated is 100% INCORRECT. OBAP HAS NOT NOR WILL make statements such as Laminar has exclaimed. As Communications Chair of OBAP, we have been trying to provide ALL members with best practices and key information to navigate these troubling times. In the seminar Laminar is referencing, there was an AA Management Pilot speaking about the state of the company in an official capacity who showed slides of current and future staffing numbers, which ALL companies have done. He also stated those numbers were fluid and not concrete. Again, OBAP has not or did not make those claims.

The virtual seminars have been presented by industry professionals and the topics have ranged from Mental Health, Financial Planning and Navigating Through Furloughs.

I wish Laminar would have reported CORRECT information before getting you all upset about OBAP. His statements are misleading and slanderous in nature when coupled with statements made by others like "I will never believe anything coming from them in the future" and "I hope you didn't pay for that".

If you're a current member, all the webinars are available to you on the website once you sign in. If you would like to job us on future webinars, please feel free to do so. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY IN-PERSON MEETINGS OF ANY TYPE.

I know I ruffle some feathers every once in a while. I’ve never got a guy who’s been on APC for 6 years and never posted to call me out with his 1st post!

Suga... I don’t think anyone has any issues with OBAP.

I think he was referring to Feta and "the Dudes" post

I know. I was glad it wasn’t me!

OBAP virtual job conferences have been great. Sorry they won't have the in person conferences this year.

Misinformation
 

No Worries Mate. I have been a member and use to post often but over the years but the constant fighting fighting drove me away.

We're all in this crap together and wouldn't want to give anyone any un-needed stress, We all have too much already.

Thanks to all who have joined the FREE webinars and hope you will join us for the upcoming ones.

Zero furloughs. I’ll put a burrito on it. Extra cheese.

now I’m hungry

That all depends on the hot sauce/salsa though! Remember, if it hurts on the way in, it'll hurt on the way out!

Just the numbers for those outside the arena looking in. AA manpower planning numbers are for 12,086 positions for Sept 2020. November 2020 shows 10,060 positions, 2,452 of those being international wide body (777/787). July 2021 10,997 positions. As for the actual headcount as of august 2020 we have 12,674 pilots. 1,150 of those are on removed fleets (190,767, 330). Permanent leave and retirements to this date have been removed from this figure and I believe Temporary leaves have not. Also, from today until the end of the year there are 323 retirements. 2021 shows 542 total, 2022 is 624 and 2023 is 828. I separated the wide body flying out for the Nov 2020 figure and its stays fairly constant for the forecast periods that followed. Seems optimistic to me but I'll let others decide that. Hope the numbers shed a little light on what may or may not happen.

AApilots shows 15,642 lowest FO. July 2019 senior to list shows 14,925. APA 3XP shows 12,511. Where can we see our actual seniority number?

if you go 3xp select all in each category it will tell you where you are on active pilots. Also the union put out an updated the 3xp this week. Check your email.

Right, it shows 14,328 total not 12,674 as mentioned. Where are the other ~1,700? AApilots 3XP shows 14,328 while APA 3XP is showing 12,511. Confusing is all.

Expanded 3XP Beta

That extra 1500 includes management, medical out and mil leave guys

528 are Retired, Resigned or Deceased...

48 MGT

9 PLOA

34 USLOA

629 MDSB

181 CRMLOA

If demand improves to 50% by October, AA will only required half their(13,000) active pilots.

Demand keeps improving...
https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

But that’s not the big problem...

The BIG problem is Parker will “Never let a good crisis go to waste?”

Bankruptcy and/or Furloughs is only a short-term hardship...that will lead to long-term gains.

September will have the rest of this story...

So Parker is gonna furlough but keep all those pilots on payroll for an extra month. I read things like this all the time. Sure we have done XYZ (is early outs) and they have greatly reduced the furloughs but we are gonna furlough into a deficit because reasons.

nootpilot’s first nearly cohesive post in years!!

Way to go buddy!