Daddy? If y’all didn’t marry a rich flight attendant(female in my situation)well, I’m sorry.😅

Our governor is on record saying that shutting down the state is the last option at this point. This doesn’t mean the academy won’t shut down though. Who knows what the future holds.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...667f20f812.jpg
Know the reasons cases are increasing. It’s expected.

Cases going up, deaths going down.. media trying to scare the general public, yet again!

The bankruptcy laws changed in 2007, it's not now riskier and "less convenient" for managers to use BK as a financial tool. The last wave of airline bankruptcies appeared to be timed to get in under the wire before the rules changed (obviously there were economic problems too).

Under the old laws, it seemed like nobody wanted to miss out on the the opportunity to dump annoying obligations, restructure necessary obligations, and cut labor costs. Once one of them filed, the others did too or else they got concessions (esp. from labor) by threatening to file. That's generalities, each case will have it's own nuances of course.

Under the new law I don't think you'd see one BK filing trigger an automatic cascade from everybody else. But if one or two successfully restructure, that could obviously put competitive pressure on others which might ultimately push them over the brink too.

Creditors get a say, more so under the new laws. They do have an incentive to get some return on their investment, just depends on what the market might bear at the time. Worth noting that the court can simply erase obligations to labor and unsecured creditors. But secured creditors always have the option of taking their collateral back... judge can erase the obligation but he cannot force a secured creditor to leave his collateral in place. So the bank that owns the planes might make a deal, but it can also repo the planes if it prefers.

Also the fed is likely to intervene if liquidation looms in the near/mid-term. Although if there's sustained economic malaise that reduces demand longer-term it might be politically OK to let one or more airlines fail.

Thanks rickair. I appreciate it; many mentions of bankruptcy here and elsewhere but I don't believe most pilots know what it actually would mean for them or the airline. It is a nebulous, opaque, but generally bad thing. I think the perception is that at any given company the pilots jobs would be intact but maybe with a less favorable contract. Not many folks talking like they believe there's a strong possibility they'll end up on the street permanently.

Correct me if I'am wrong, but I believe I read that the Supreme Court ruled if a judge does in fact alter a RLA contract and impose terms, it doesn't strip the union from self help.
Most BK end with a joint negoation the judge signs off on, but if he were to impose, he'd be gambling scab labor would/could be available because the union could still pursue self help.

So a judge does have the authority to alter a RLA contract, but that authority does not restrict collective bargaining, or self help.

wonder if the name "American" dissolving would be prevented by people in whom the name evokes a symbolic meaning.

Is there a traditional percentage number of pilots who are "safe from furlough" that has been passed around for the past few years / decades? Do you think this year's will change that number when used in the future?

Not sure, but the men who have the power to furlough us say we’re 1600 fat for next summer, we’ll see what kind of deals can be made.


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Kind of. DP was referencing the forecast that was on the vacancy bid I believe which seemed to have a consensus that after all other factors puts us at 1,200 over. I’m new in this game but I think it’s too soon to tell and there would be other signals if we were closer to furlough (larger VPLOA approvals by the company and maybe lowering of age requirement).


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My personal number is at least 20% off the bottom.
If a company is going to furlough, it usually the first 10% go rather quickly and then the next 10% would go almost a year later.
Unless things are really, really bad then it would be 50%. (We aren't there)

I still think the numbers that Dougie floated are posturing and managing expectations.

I don't dislike DP but I would feel far more comfortable if he was in line with Delta and United on future expectations. SW can afford to bet the farm but for us its do or die. We certainly can hope for more aid but that will largely be out of our hands. The good news is that from the most junior to the most senior we are all in this together. At this point furloughing will provide only marginal relief and probably not enough time to make a difference. It will be tough but I know for myself and the guys I work with life will go on and we will all make the best of it. Its been a nice run while it lasted though!

If you're referencing the people who are pulling down statues of Jefferson, Washington, Lincoln, and Roosevelt--sorry to say but I'd guess that they're all for it.

When do initial furlough notices have to go out by at AA?

Late Aug..

JCBA.. Furlough V.3

”Pilots to be furloughed will be given thirty (30) days' notice before the effective date of the furlough. Such notice will not be applicable in cases of emergency which include, but are not limited to acts of God or a strike by employees of the Company.”

Would I be wrong in thinking that the WARN act would apply to us, thus requiring a 60 day advance notice of furlough?

Karen’s Brother.

Good point, didn’t think of the WARN act. I change my answer to: late July

who’s Karen?

Rick 777's sister. See how that works? :D

Tread very lightly, he threw the book at me and almost permanently banished me for calling him Omnipotent. I feel the time served taught me a valuable lesson as to how truly powerful he actually is.

How much does DP stand to personally lose if AAL shares are cancelled?

That would depend on what they give him in the re-organization. That goes for all top mgt. at all airlines we are just the pawns

depends on how they rigged the golden parachutes.

Delta said they are sending out required possible furlough notices to 2,500 pilots next week. This is to comply with WARN...not sure how much their new EO program will offset the 2,500 number, lots going on over there right now as far as negotiations it seems.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/delta-war...081558782.html

All the stock is cancelled in BK and new stock is given to debt holders in exchange for debt relief. DP would lose millions, BK is very bad for him.

The last time I checked, (about 6 weeks ago), Parker held about 2 1/2 million shares. You do the math.

He just lost $20 million in the past 3 weeks. Ouch...

I don’t like DP and never have. I believe he is lying on his outlook because he’s desperate to raise cash.

50% mmmm ya ok, I’d like to see any airline shell 50% and avoid liquidation. Not happening

Go back about 15 years and you will see what furloughing 50% looked like.

With 40B in debt AA would be sunk if it shrunk to half its size. I understand your point but these are different times.

Independence Air? Oh wait, they did shed 50% and then liquidated. My bad...:D

I agree, these are different times but I was speaking in general.
A good number of my post tend to go over people heads but some do get it.

Apples and oranges.

These days? It would probably be accompanied by cheering crowds just BECAUSE of the name. After all, that Amerigo Vespucci guy helped Spain enslave a continent.

sad and true

Independence Air? Come on dude! Whopping fleet of 130 lol

Maybe not the best thread to post this but close enough for what is current. Here's what I wish I could of asked Vasu because something doesn't add up. We are hoping to reduce cash burn anyway we can. This even to the point of pulling parking permits from airports we don't normally use which is great. So here it goes:


For July wide body 777/787 flying CLT=0, MIA=0, DFW=12-14 average lines/day, LAX=5-6 average lines/day, ORD=1 line/day, PHL=0, and LGA=0. Total 21 lines per day systemwide. Meanwhile as of August 31st captains alone (on 3xp so add double these amounts for total pilots) CLT=49, MIA=149, DFW=380, LAX=117, ORD=81, PHL=111, and LGA=138. That should add up to 1025 captains and maybe 2000 FO/FB/FC for approximately 3000 total wide body crewmembers.


There appears to be a huge disparity between supply and demand. Even if all the excess were on leave making 55 hours per month that's a big cost to carry over until next summer. Am I missing something? Now there is a small bit of domestic mix in the line count above but probably no more than 10-15%. Most think international flying will be the last to return. Conservatively speaking you could at least reduce international wide body staffing by one half and yet no displacements. I dont get it. What strategy do you think AA is formulating if any. Im curious to what others are thinking.