“About” is a general term.

No one outside Dallas knows what the daily cash burn really is, and no one knows how long it will continue. However, there is a number that triggers BK at American. That number exists at DL, NK, AS, etc.

The fact is that AA is beyond no doubt the closest to that number where cash flow takes the organization to cash on hand which is required for a DIP reorg.

And Delta/United are now at the debt levels AA was when everyone was saying AA was in deep trouble. Uncharted territory. Who knows.

Personally, I think the on-coming Administration is going to face lots of pressure to nationalize that debt, along with the States and municipalities with massive unserviceable debt/pension obligations.

and this is true for us all....

https://i.ibb.co/gmtJJ5s/1355-D5-C2-...6-F0-E4-C1.jpg


Basically, EVERYBODY would be in the crapper if it wasn’t for the government bailout, but the flying has to come back reasonably quickly or EVERYBODY is screwed. The government won’t keep shoveling money at us for very much longer. And if flying doesn’t come back reasonably soon, if the existing organizations and workgroups are furloughed or terminated, it will eventually be cheaper just to have new startups like Breeze take over the flying once it does come back. Either that or the general population needs to be convinced to just accept the casualties and move on before the damage to the whole economy is even worse.

Kind of like being worried because your 6 year old daughter is closer to the age where kids start dating than your neighbor with a 5.5 year old. According to an industry study that our union put out, Delta and United both have more cash, but only about 6-8 months worth. American might have less attractive interest rates on their debt and have a deeper hole to crawl out of than others, but they’re not going anywhere. They’ll just spend more time paying back the debt than their competitors will.

Good insight.

I think it would be easier to allow mergers they otherwise would have not allowed .

I would normally agree, except I think allowing mergers just creates another massive failure of an airline. If you believe that all airlines are in deep trouble if there isn’t a turn around relatively soon (as I do), then what does allowing mergers solve? AA may be in the worst shape, but if we are at the point where only a merger can save us, I believe everyone is doomed.

A merger would only solve the issue of a failed business model. I think the business model is sound, the state of the market is the issue. I believe the airline sector can only heal with the end of the pandemic.

You wouldn’t merge now, you’d merge what is left after the carnage is over, but I don’t really see bankruptcies or mergers. We don’t have to be at 2019 levels to stop the cash burn or even be slightly profitable. The airlines will get to a sustainable level as smaller companies, and then grow back according to their abilities.

Fair, that’s the implicit part of my argument. Better left said than unsaid. I think this summer will stop the bleeding and will provide some good insight as to the future of the industry

The later part, yes.

Airline debt? Not sure I see that...

A merger does not have have make an airline larger like DAL /NWA or UAL/CAL. A merger can be to reduce the number of seats and competition. SW acquired AT , then paid DAL to take most of the aircraft AT had. SWA got rid of a nasty thorn in their side


Let’s not go down the road of how great the 717 was. I heard it could cook you breakfast in the morning and make the best IPA beer you could ever dream of :)

Thats fair. Then the situation becomes one ripe for a new airline to come screaming onto the scene once those seats are in demand, in only a two year or so time frame. And who’s to say that airline won’t be a more formidable business adversary? It’s an interesting hypothetical

Where do they have 170s flying between hubs? The AA contract allows for very few block hours to be flown hub to hub.

Check out a few days of NYC-MIA on travel planner. Some days are worse than others, but there are a decent amount of republic e170s sprinkled in there. Some days there are three flights a day operated by them

Many are concerned about a AA/JB merger (on both sides). I was curious as to if people thought the two companies working together as they are is setting the stage for a merger sometime in the future. In terms of legacies, AA is probably the one with the least overlap and would make the most sense.

Nobody really knows but everyone has their theories. AA pilots don’t want it because APA is almost guaranteed to throw the younger pilots under the bus in a seniority integration, to save group 4 captain jobs. JetBlue pilots on the younger side almost certainly want it to take advantage of AA’s retirements.

It’s extraordinarily terrible policy. Thus why I think it’s possible, if not likely.

There are very few at JB (none that I have spoken to) that want anything whatsoever to do with an AA merger.

Correct. I want nothing to do with an AA merge, as do a vast (if not all), the pilots I've talked with

If you asked JB pilots a year ago, the answer would be about split down the middle on wanting a merger with AA. Today, there’s not a JB pilot on property that wants to go near a merger with AA. No disrespect.

At least the feelings are mutual, gentlemen

Agreed, Sanicom. I know of no AA pilot that would want a merge with Jetblue.

Sounds like Doug might be jumping ship as well?

Yup. That feeling has never been split in the past.

hahahahaha, well, I know of a few...

We get it, we’re the airline to dump on and you’re better than us. Glad you’re happy where you are my friend.

Trying to think of which group at AA would benefit from a merger and am coming up short

I think pre-COVID there were a several Jetblue pilots that wanted to dress in a different color shirt, regardless of the Legacy it was with. Things have changed, but I don’t think it has anything to do with the desirability of AA, so I wouldn’t take it personally. The thought of merging with Delta or United, would give most heartburn I think as well. Consolidation during these murky times wouldn’t be fun for anyone.

NYC is not a hub though. Something that APA should have fixed.
Thats how Envoy used to do a daily ORD-LGA. NYC is a pilot domicile and a "focus city" but not a hub for scope purposes.

Never met a single pilot here at AA that wants anything to do with any merger, let alone JetBlue. There’s a pattern I see here with any discussion where JetBlue is involved. Their pilots talking merger. Remember it was United forever! Their way back to JFK. Their way to capture Florida traffic and so on. You’re not merging with any legacy. It would never be allowed by the doj even under Mr. capitalism himself Trump.

Nobody wants to merge and add any more weight to the sinking ship. AA is well past the titanic clipping the iceberg.

The rub is that quite a few other airlines are tied to AA if BK is declared. It will be a bath for many.

Never once said better. Better situation? Yes. Don't take it so personally.

Hub was the wrong word, but my point still stands.

Didn’t learn anything from your little time out, who could have seen that coming

but everyone else here did. We all now know that he’s a blithering idiot.

No one should WANT it.

That said, there are lots of things I don’t want, and can make the case are objectively worse/bad, that still occur.

AA, UA, and DL pilot groups all benefited from bankruptcies of airlines past. In many cases these pilot groups made decisions that benefited themselves at mammoth cost to other pilots. Thaw idea that now, somehow, that these precedents need to be rewound is laudable but not really compelling.

Just rest easy knowing that here at American Airlines, we believe in equality. The pilots of other airlines, as well as the junior in our own ranks, will be eaten in order to sustain the prosperity of the all-important widebody captain.

Some are more equal than others ... got it. ;)

Give it a rest man. I'll never be a widebody captain, but I'm also not going to just simply label the widebody captains with the widest of wide brushstrokes of overgeneralization. Every demographic within our seniority list has their fair share of a$$h0les, to include the most junior FO's within our ranks.

Maybe try to be all-inclusive of the entire list top to bottom instead of being just like what you bemoan so much about our widebody captains.

I didn't say anything about widebody captains though. I did however talk about the actions and mindset of APA and how everything they do is to protect the most senior on the AA list.