Someone hired in Dec 2019 is only four months from the bottom of the list.
Likewise, someone hired in October 2019 was able to hold DFW on their first bid out of indoc.

Last month it was awarded about 450 from the bottom (or about 9 months of hiring).

Only on the 737

True
Question was about holding DFW, not DFW78.
For someone starting Indoc next week, little difference if they get LGA32 in their class bid, with only a six month seat lock, and the small trend of the past two vacancies, DFW will end up well under a year. Again.

there are only a few bases that have consistently taken a year or more to hold(with the occasional exception), CLT, BOS, and ORD. All the other bases should be easily held within a year for future new hires…that being said those bases could be held within the year for future new hires as past results are not predictors of future performance, haha.

We are in agreement.

What do current new hires look like when it comes to qualifications? College degree? 121 pic time? Volunteer at ALPA? Check airman?

Anyone being hired right now is either a flow through, or was offered a CJO back in MAR 2020. The qualifications they had aren’t going to be a great indicator of who might be selected now.

Got any parents that are AA pilots?

4 year degree 3.64 GPA non aviation
3000 TT all civilian
1500 121, 500 TPIC
No LCA, no ALPA volunteer
1 checkride failure CFI initial

No parents or special connections, worked for an AA WO and had a bunch of LORs and sent my cover letter to recruiters. Got the video interview invite January and CJO February 2020. I did have my app professionally reviewed twice and had an app on file since my first year as an FO at my regional and updated it every single day probably 360 days a year missing a couple days on vacation here and there. It seemed that mold was becoming more and more common I was shocked when I got the video invite. I almost trashed it! It said support nothing with American or congratulations or interview in the header! I never thought I would get the call with those qualifications, everyone I talked to hired outside the flow prior were similar 500-1000 TPIC but they all had a parent at AA. After I got my video I heard a decent number of no parent guys in the same boat getting the call. A majority of them were getting them from convention visits. I have no idea what hiring will look like now though…

5500 TT, 1400 TPIC, 4000 121, 4 year non aviation degree. Lots of volunteering: pro stands, alpa training committee, alpa communications committee, alpa newhire mentor, local GA aviation community volunteer work, etc.