Originally Posted by Gundam

It's always difficult to judge airlines because you start reading something critical and it turns into Alex Jones yelling about goblins. It seems like it's questionable if American will stay around with Delta constantly moving in on them and regionals giving way the LCCs, and like an idiot you'd think it was because of some measurable financial choices or business models, but in reality it's because their tweets are too woke.

To me, American seems to be in dire straits, and I'm not sure the seniority will be as good as expected since they will have a hard time growing while Delta keeps muscling in on their territory. If Delta does what American did and takes out a huge loan and uses it to expand more in AA territory instead of buying back stock, I don't know how AA would handle it. I think you should expect DL to keep growing. Not totally clear what they will do with international stuff(expand vs outsource).

Originally Posted by Gundam

It's always difficult to judge airlines because you start reading something critical and it turns into Alex Jones yelling about goblins. It seems like it's questionable if American will stay around with Delta constantly moving in on them and regionals giving way the LCCs, and like an idiot you'd think it was because of some measurable financial choices or business models, but in reality it's because their tweets are too woke.

To me, American seems to be in dire straits, and I'm not sure the seniority will be as good as expected since they will have a hard time growing while Delta keeps muscling in on their territory. If Delta does what American did and takes out a huge loan and uses it to expand more in AA territory instead of buying back stock, I don't know how AA would handle it. I think you should expect DL to keep growing. Not totally clear what they will do with international stuff(expand vs outsource).

Originally Posted by TheDuster

Thank you all for the input. I plan to stay west of the Mississippi and long-distance commuting for a year, while not ideal, would be something I can deal with.

Originally Posted by Aviatormar

Or another way to think of it; Delta has good management now, but here's the rub... that can change by next quarter. And delta has some ooooollllddd airplanes, 60ish 767's won't be cheap or fun to replace.

Originally Posted by Gundam

I would love for that to be true because it would mean nearly all my flying career aspirations could be achieved in 10 years despite not really thinking about it until 2 years ago.

Unfortunately, D's old fleet prints money and AA burns it. D's fleet renewal will just put it that much further ahead. Management also typically doesn't vary that wildly. Even if DL were to deteriorate, it would probably be slow, as it has been for AA. Unless AA gets extraordinarily good at hedging fuel (which they completely quit) I don't see any way for it to improve its position outside of a brutal restructuring, or getting extremely lucky and smart.

Another thing about the debt. AA just needed to stop buying back stock. It wanted to increase share price while also changing the fleet. Any other airline need only recognize the foolishness of doing stock buy backs while having a large debt obligation. Simply renewing a fleet doesn't put an airline in AA's position.

It would be great if AA ran away with it and anyone going there could just take great seniority, great bases, and the promise of great pay. Maybe that will happen and Isom will be on the cover of Forbes with an interview about how he "turned it around." Who knows.

Originally Posted by Margaritaville

Make a pros and cons list.

Delta:
Bases in NYC, ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC, SEA, LAX
Questionable cockpit culture especially the RDPs in ATL. Military vs. civilian issues. "Where's your hat, son?" "Put that newspaper away, son". Guard policing and constant ambiguous ride reports.
Horse blankets when it's 90 degrees.
Autocratic management style only a notch above SkyWest. They will treat you like a child. Pilots are the only union. DALPA usually bends over anyhow.
The company is profitable and the pilots make good money. Strong balance sheet. Aging fleet will have to be replaced. Debt will go up.
Arguably the best product in terms of passenger experience. Loyal business customer base (HVCs).
Work rules are okay except their schedules. Reassignment rules worse than a regional. You won't fly what you bid.
210/356 day bid awards and new hire seat locks. Nearly guarantees 2 years in NYC if you're junior.

American:
Bases in BOS, NYC, PHL, DCA, MIA, DFW, ORD, PHX, LAX. You can pretty much live anywhere with them.
Questionable cockpit culture. Legacy US/AW/AA? Older pilots nearing retirement who have had a terrible career and it shows. Flow vs. street vs. military.
Respectful management style that expects pilots to be leaders and take action. Nonpunitive culture.
Management that can't seem to get it together. Are you going to be an LCC or a Legacy?
Massive overhead and bloated management structure. Not profitable but loyal customer base. Decent passenger experience. Has potential to be great.
Massive debt due to refleeting. Most of it is secured debt like a mortgage, not bad debt like a credit card.
Bankruptcy/merger contract over 10 years old. Can only get better? APA is fairly strong compared to ALPA.
Massive retirements. Incredible upward movement. NB CA in less than 3 years WB CA in less than 10.
New hires are getting almost any base. 6 month aircraft lock. You can bid any base in training and will probably get it.

Originally Posted by Gundam

I would love for that to be true because it would mean nearly all my flying career aspirations could be achieved in 10 years despite not really thinking about it until 2 years ago.

Unfortunately, D's old fleet prints money and AA burns it. D's fleet renewal will just put it that much further ahead. Management also typically doesn't vary that wildly. Even if DL were to deteriorate, it would probably be slow, as it has been for AA. Unless AA gets extraordinarily good at hedging fuel (which they completely quit) I don't see any way for it to improve its position outside of a brutal restructuring, or getting extremely lucky and smart.

Another thing about the debt. AA just needed to stop buying back stock. It wanted to increase share price while also changing the fleet. Any other airline need only recognize the foolishness of doing stock buy backs while having a large debt obligation. Simply renewing a fleet doesn't put an airline in AA's position.

It would be great if AA ran away with it and anyone going there could just take great seniority, great bases, and the promise of great pay. Maybe that will happen and Isom will be on the cover of Forbes with an interview about how he "turned it around." Who knows.