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TransWorld 12-17-2021 06:12 PM


Originally Posted by Al Czervik (Post 3337647)
Just a quick google search on current Debt-as of 7/21
AA: 40b
UA: 36b
DL: 29b

Now that is pretty amazing. 29b with the oldest of the 3 fleets. 40b with the youngest of the 3 fleets.

If you listen to complaints, you would think there was a more extreme difference. When the oldest fleet begins a serious renewal process, they could be equal to the 40b.

Pilot X 12-17-2021 06:52 PM


Originally Posted by TransWorld (Post 3337652)
Now that is pretty amazing. 29b with the oldest of the 3 fleets. 40b with the youngest of the 3 fleets.

If you listen to complaints, you would think there was a more extreme difference. When the oldest fleet begins a serious renewal process, they could be equal to the 40b.

hey, watch it transworld, don’t tell that to any of the delta cheerleaders out there

nAAtive 12-17-2021 09:03 PM


Originally Posted by Gundam (Post 3337498)
I would love for that to be true because it would mean nearly all my flying career aspirations could be achieved in 10 years despite not really thinking about it until 2 years ago.

Unfortunately, D's old fleet prints money and AA burns it. D's fleet renewal will just put it that much further ahead. Management also typically doesn't vary that wildly. Even if DL were to deteriorate, it would probably be slow, as it has been for AA. Unless AA gets extraordinarily good at hedging fuel (which they completely quit) I don't see any way for it to improve its position outside of a brutal restructuring, or getting extremely lucky and smart.

Another thing about the debt. AA just needed to stop buying back stock. It wanted to increase share price while also changing the fleet. Any other airline need only recognize the foolishness of doing stock buy backs while having a large debt obligation. Simply renewing a fleet doesn't put an airline in AA's position.

It would be great if AA ran away with it and anyone going there could just take great seniority, great bases, and the promise of great pay. Maybe that will happen and Isom will be on the cover of Forbes with an interview about how he "turned it around." Who knows.

I would say all airlines need to stop buying back stock.

Gundam 12-18-2021 12:32 AM


Originally Posted by Aviatormar (Post 3337637)
AA has the largest CC miles base, they have a super young fleet that keeps getting younger (and a bone to pick, you can't cut it both ways; AA re-fleeted and had to buy airplanes those cost money, so why does AA's re-fleet and debt any less brutal? Honest question- and to add to it- AA ordered in what 2018? cheaper by a decent amount than to order airplanes now. And how does their 777 and 787 cost more?)

AA has not seemed to derive much benefit from their younger fleet, and from articles I've read their margins are the slimmest which would point to problems in their fundamental business model, and in some cases they made most of their money selling frequent flyer miles or something. AA has the lowest operating cash flow. I think if AA had not bought back its stock it would be a great option for pilots now despite those things. Unfortunately, as we've seen now with Boeing and many other companies, when the business is directly run to increase share price instead of improving the actual business, it results in failure, and a confounding business model. Why did AA make money when it did well, why does it struggle to make any money other times?

Parker even admitted he didn't think they could catch D in profit margin for transporting passengers after multiple years.

To someone else that said no airlines should buyback stock, I agree. That would be a great concrete goal for the pilot unions to rally around to actually positively impact how the entities that govern our lives are run.

If the economy favors air travel for the next 5 years, I'd say AA is the place to go(as a pilot). If you think travel will take another hit in that time AA will almost certainly go down unless their business no longer involves flying airplanes or they have someone in the Whitehouse Cabinet. Would you be cool starting over at another airline in 4 years? If yes, obviously go to AA because if it works out you've made it, huge money, great schedule etc. If it doesn't, just go to the next place. No matter what you will be paid better than 90% of people.

dera 12-18-2021 03:42 AM


Originally Posted by TransWorld (Post 3337652)
Now that is pretty amazing. 29b with the oldest of the 3 fleets. 40b with the youngest of the 3 fleets.

If you listen to complaints, you would think there was a more extreme difference. When the oldest fleet begins a serious renewal process, they could be equal to the 40b.

The difference is huge when you look at assets and cash in hand. AA is way behind. Just look at shareholders equity. If AA liquidated tomorrow, it would be 10 billion still in the red. UA and DL are way above.

Armyguy 12-18-2021 07:06 AM

-Going to move to a base? then pick AA because our bases rock. CLT, PHX, MIA, DFW are great places
-Going to commute by air? then pick AA because we dont require 87 backups to get to work. 1, and it can be offline.
-Coming from the military and want a more relaxed atmosphere? pick AA. Just looking at those hat wearing sub commanders makes me feel sorry for them. Delta pilots look like the complete opposite of our Miami guys who run around with no tie or blazer and are super chill while also being the best pilots you will fly with.
-Don't want to say "wind check" every 10 seconds on final? come to AA because we realize the wind is what it is and it doesn't matter if it is a 8kt crosswind or a 10knt crosswind.
-Worried about debt and the future? Look at the silly number of old airplanes Delta has.
Delta: A220's, A320 family, A330's, A350's, B717, 737's, B767 family. 7 types.
AA: 320, 737, 787, 777. 4 types, that's it.
Delta is going to be in debt way past 40B soon and AA will be way under 29B soon.
-Want to drop to zero? come to AA. Want schedule flexibility? come to AA, the IMAX army will take your trips.
-Want crew meals? come to AA
-Want Sick if needed? come to AA
-Want amazing seniority progression? come to AA, hiring 5K pilots in 2022/2023. 5K! crazy. Go to Delta if you want to be behind a bunch of 25yr old former regional FO only pilots who got hired 3 years before you.
-Don't want to have to get a doctors not if you call in sick? come to AA.
-Want to complain about your employer or listen to cpt's tell you how great TWA was then come to AA
-want to be apart of a dysfunctional union? come to AA
-want to work for the soon to be CEO of AA who seems lost every time he speaks? come to AA
-AA is getting a contract in the next few months with profit sharing and other improvements.

Anyways do what you want but as someone who researched Delta really hard in the last year I wasn't all that impressed.

Margaritaville 12-18-2021 07:17 AM


Originally Posted by R57 relay (Post 3337532)
You missed the AA CLT base, which I believe for the A320 is the largest bid status in the company. But, NC is full.

Yeah CLT too. Home of NASCAR. Isn't that you guys Bubba base?

Al Czervik 12-18-2021 07:18 AM


Originally Posted by Gundam (Post 3337743)
AA has not seemed to derive much benefit from their younger fleet, and from articles I've read their margins are the slimmest which would point to problems in their fundamental business model, and in some cases they made most of their money selling frequent flyer miles or something. AA has the lowest operating cash flow. I think if AA had not bought back its stock it would be a great option for pilots now despite those things. Unfortunately, as we've seen now with Boeing and many other companies, when the business is directly run to increase share price instead of improving the actual business, it results in failure, and a confounding business model. Why did AA make money when it did well, why does it struggle to make any money other times?

Parker even admitted he didn't think they could catch D in profit margin for transporting passengers after multiple years.

To someone else that said no airlines should buyback stock, I agree. That would be a great concrete goal for the pilot unions to rally around to actually positively impact how the entities that govern our lives are run.

If the economy favors air travel for the next 5 years, I'd say AA is the place to go(as a pilot). If you think travel will take another hit in that time AA will almost certainly go down unless their business no longer involves flying airplanes or they have someone in the Whitehouse Cabinet. Would you be cool starting over at another airline in 4 years? If yes, obviously go to AA because if it works out you've made it, huge money, great schedule etc. If it doesn't, just go to the next place. No matter what you will be paid better than 90% of people.

Not sure what “AA will go down means.” I’d really worry about joint ventures if I were at delta.

Margaritaville 12-18-2021 07:24 AM


Originally Posted by Al Czervik (Post 3337859)
Not sure what “AA will go down means.” I’d really worry about joint ventures if I were at delta.

You guys keep saying AA is going down. I was a pilot back when PanAm failed, and I clearly remember it. PAA had a little over 200 planes at their peak. AA has almost 900. Isn't there some point when you're "too big to fail"? Who's going to replace that lift? Even if it was broke up and bought in pieces like PAA was that lift wouldn't be replaced overnight. AA shutting down would severely cripple the US economy and transportation system so it will never be allowed to happen.

Worst case scenario is another Ch 11 restructuring and whacking of the union contracts, but even that has been largely curtailed by recent bk legislation. The pilot shortage will help. A crappy contract won't attract talent.

I really think some of you guys are feeding hysteria because it's contract time. You probably think inability to get new hires in the seats gives you leverage. Labor tends to overestimate that.

Enough of the hyperbole. I'm sure AA will continue to plod along just like it has. And when you're on the bottom all you can do is move up.

Disclaimer: I don't work at AA. Outsider with decades in this industry looking in

Gundam 12-18-2021 07:41 AM


Originally Posted by Al Czervik (Post 3337859)
Not sure what “AA will go down means.” I’d really worry about joint ventures if I were at delta.

Get tired of winning and restructure/go bankrupt. Joint ventures/outsourcing does suck, but it seems like it is coming to AA too with the north east alliance. United is the only place as far as I can tell that isn't doing that. If the travel market stays strong and AA gets its debt controlled in the good times I think it will be fine and a great place to work. It could certainly happen, I just think people should consider the the possibility. Of the 3 choices for regionals I considered, 2 no longer exist. I got very lucky. The airline industry seems to favor a conservative growth strategy at every level. The best job security is of course to just fly boxes.

Too big to fail, implies leverage in DC and massive influence over the economy mostly only banks have. If only one airline actually needs to declare bankruptcy it will be allowed to happen. It will miss growth opportunities and the contracts will certainly not be industry leading afterwards.


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