If and when we get a TA I would guess it's current rate ($90.93) plus 13%-15%.. $104ish.

What new contract? Did I miss out on something overnight?

Nah you didn't miss anything, no TA yet.

Has anyone noticed who FedEx just got as a mediator? We should have filed for mediation yesterday! Every day that goes by is just another day that the company gets to drag this out with impunity.

Taken from the FedEx thread:

Mike Tosi joined the National Mediation Board in March, 2005, as a Mediator. He serves as a mediator in airline and railroad cases, including grievance mediation cases.

Prior to joining the NMB, Mike completed a career as a commercial pilot flying for several major airlines. He retired in March from US Airways. During his more than twenty-nine year career, Mike acquired experience in labor relations from both a management and a union perspective. He served as a Team Manager at People Express Airlines managing more than three hundred fellow employees. And, as chairman of US Airways’ largest ALPA council and as a representative on its Master Executive Council, Mike served on the pilots’ governing body during US Airways’ continuous efforts to restructure itself, and as it emerged from Chapter 11 in 2003. Mike also served as a member of the ALPA National Appeal Board.

Mike is a graduate of Columbia University with a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics. He retired in 1999 from the Air National Guard as the Vice Wing Commander of the 166th Air Wing in Wilmington, Delaware, thus completing thirty-two years of military service.

huh, I think he was the last aviation mediator available as well. If APA does go down that road it may be awhile before one is assigned to them.

Yes but why wait? The process could take 2 years I know, but how does it help to wait? It’ll be 2 years whether we start today or in six months. Mediation is inevitable so continuing to play the company’s games with these “negotiations” we’re in now only helps them delay delay delay. We should’ve filed months ago!

Good, that is the road I want then. That way Delta or United will get something out first and our mediator will have a decent baseline on how horrible our contract is.

I don't disagree, but it (if true, i'm not sure he was the last mediator available but i believe so) also takes the expedited mediation off the table. Which again isn't necessarily bad if you are wanting to wait for delta and UA to go first. My guess is APA is just using this as a bit of a stick to move the company along but have no intention of actually filling for mediation. Just my $.01

What are the odds of the mediator taking sides with the company?

Good question. I'm not sure as to the answer, but I know it would be just our luck to get the worst mediator available. I doubt we would be as lucky as Delta or Fedex.

I don’t think that is how it works. Mediators don’t choose a side. They facilitate negotiations. Arbitration is where someone picks a side.

Yes. Agree. Imagine the first quarterly earnings conference call after the pilot union has filed with the NMB. That’s when it’s gonna sting some. Analysts have to account for this labor risk in a negative fashion (For reference I used to be one).

I just listened to the recordings of last Thursday and Friday BOD meeting that talked about the Alaska contract compared to our AIPs. Our hotel AIP was so onerous that the board voted and rescinded it. We are not even asking for many very important items that Alaska has achieved or already had. Lots of politics in the BOD meeting. Took me a while to figure out who was who but the room is set up like a U and domicile alphabetically. Boston upper right LGA dead center at bottom PHL upper left. Sometimes it’s hard to tell who is speaking. SMEs(subject matter experts) did a nice job explaining the differences. In rare circumstances is anything we have asked for better than Alaska.

Negotiator stated they are 95% complete with blocked trips, pay, and a couple other things to go. Now add hotels to that too because we pulled it back.

11 in the room want this to pass. 9 don’t. Two domicile elections are running now and could easily turn it to 9 yes and 11 no. Results are out in a couple weeks. The negotiators are about to change too. That is probably a good thing to get fresh people in there. I am sure the current negotiators are spent. This is going to take some time yet. Don’t order that new Tesla just yet.

Honestly at this point we are better off just waiting. It’s probably better for us to wait and get something most of us are happy with vs something right now that only a few of us are happy with.

Also, there really is no rush at this point. Let UA and/or Delta come out with something first and then just point the finger and say “That’s where the bar is”. It could send a signal to hiring to if the AA wholly own regionals still provide the fastest flow to UA or Delta because the pilots realize they will have both better QOL and Pay and either one of those airlines over AA under the current working conditions and contract.

The ORD further put their foot in their mouths yesterday with that email. Claiming that after a year our AIP will be with more than Alaska Airlines. Must think that AA pilots are dumb and wouldn't notice that the main reason that is is because AA has 5 times more pilots and much of the value of the contract will go to people who are not even flying. So the value to an average AA pilot is much much less than what an average Alaska pilot is getting. Those clowns need to be recalled. They do not represent the interest of the pilots they speak for.

Vote them out!

Hopefully we file for mediation, and this isnt just some bluff by APA. One thing that makes me chuckle is all these new CKA that jumped at the opportunity thinking they’re getting in right before a new contract and are now in line for giant raises. Now we head for mediation which could easily be a multi-year process. Meanwhile these new CKA are being run like dogs everyday with 13 days off and 96 hours credit, while their buddies flying the line make more and work less. Just have to laugh.

<Like button smash>

Greedy self serving move by those pilots.

Probably working 18-19 days in reality, and at the complete mercy of their schedulers, with no idea what tomorrow will bring

Q3 results are out... was hoping for better results.

So Bankruptcy?

Oh, the humanity. Things are always bad and will always get even worse. The world ended today, film at eleven.

The results beat estimates by a massive margin. Almost 500 million profit and record revenue on 10% less capacity than pre-covid. 4th quarter estimates will have us turning a profit on the year despite losing like 1.5 billion in 1st quarter. DAL and UAL have better profits on less revenue but this is still a strong report from AA and good news.

Some day we will get competent mgmt to keep up with the other guys.

Agree. Strong enough to change the direction of our negotiations? Let's hope so.

Not even close, nice try Mr. Positive.

You have that much faith in our management?

Not "that much" but I do have faith. It was a great Q3 for AA. I was hoping for a little more cash.. for negotiation sake.

Good. We’re still over a year away from a TA that has any chance of passing. If I were to put money on it I’d say closer to 2. That’s fine with me though, as what’s already been negotiated is crap and mostly concessionary (which is mind boggling to even think, but true.)

Another quarter in the black is good. Period.

Yep - I'll take it!

I hope a lot of these new CKA, whose only motivation was to sneak in before a TA gets signed, languish under the current contract for a while and quit

And they’re only going to get stretched more and more thin. They’ve signed themselves up for years of fatiguing schedules with 11-12 days off, and only 96 hrs of credit. And those are tough hours too, not chatting about your hobbies at cruise alt. If they quit they’re probably black balled from the department. Oh well that’s what they signed up for.

The unfortunate thing is we still have some really good senior check airman that are getting hammered.

A TA is coming. Well at least going to the BOD within the next week.

Just for this from a buddy...

Southwest Update:

The union representing nearly 8,700 Customer Service Agents at Southwest has reached an agreement with Southwest securing:
- 18%-25% pay raises over 4 years
- QOL improvements
- and a $1,000 per person signing bonus.

Need 36 percent over 4 years to keep up with current inflation. Bad deal.

There's also this a Forbes article.. 10/5/5 :-)

218 page AIP PDF is out..

Theres a 218 page copy of it making the rounds at the AA Wholly owned regionals. Group IV Captain still making $40 less per hour than RJ LCAs…