So hypothetically, what would happen if age 67 becomes law, again hypothetically. Would there be any displacements, will everything stay status quo, or just stay hiring to be prepared for two more years down the road?

 

hypothetically, probably not much. It’s a different time then when 65 happened. I’m not in favor of 67 but I don’t think much would change. There would be some stagnation but in the grand scheme it would be short lived I think. And hiring would probably continue with maybe a break just to take a breathe and get caught up.

 

Catch up on hiring, eventually get staffed correctly and PM goes away for a while…maybe years. Upgrades would likely slow but not stop. I’m against it for what it’s worth.

 

I think hiring will continue.

The Venn diagram for pilots who both want to work past age 60 and can hold a medical is probably relatively small.

Also due to ICAO rules 65+ pilots would initially be limited to domestic ops, so any seniors who stay past 65 will need to move to domestic fleets... that could create churn on narrowbody fleets but it would be offset by vacated WB opportunities.

The ICAO rules create a wildcard: Can airlines require that a pilot be able to fly to all destinations served by his fleet? Even NB's go to CA, MX, etc. Will airlines have to accommodate seniors by intervening in their schedules to keep them domestic? Can airlines refuse to employ seniors since they can't fly international? Can airlines require that seniors bid around international? Some of this might have to get hashed out in court (age discrimination, reasonable accommodation), or it might be specified in whatever law raises the age. All these issues go away when ICAO raises (or eliminates) their age limit.

 

Hiring at the legacies would come to a full stop. Keep in mind everyone is over hiring with the anticipation of the retirements. Once the retirements come to a halt, the training cycles will stop (upgrades, transition) everyone will be over staffed overnight. Doubt there would be many furloughs since the extra pilots could be used to realize growth ambitions, but the hiring will stop. Obviously the big winners will the regionals who can finally catch up on staffing, and of course the ULCC’s who are having their own retention problems at the moment.

Oh, and of course the most obvious thing that’ll happen if 67 passes, these geezers will start screaming about age 70!

 

Except that at places like Delta are hiring over 2000 a year, yet retiring only about 600.... so there's that problem with your "hiring would come to a full stop" spiel......

I think UAL has plans to GROW their seniority list to something like 18,000 pilots (yes that was the plan in 2010 as well, but this time they mean it).

 

They have to lead the retirements that’s why. How many training cycles does one top pay wide body Captain retirement cause? It’s more than you think. You don’t retire a hundred and just hire a hundred, because that 100 retirements sends hundred(s) to training. They have to hire more. That’s why in this business we always “hire until we furlough”.

 

I don’t think it would come to a halt, especially at AA. Two years is pretty short. We are way behind on training and they could keep hiring and training in anticipation of the retirements resuming. It would actually allow the airline to catch up. Also, it takes a lot of work to re spin up hiring if they stop. I’m guessing we’d hire at nearly the same rate. Anyway, I hope we don’t find out.

 

Call to Arms, APA just sent out an email. If you think this is a bad idea fueled by greed and dementia send a sound off to your designated representatives/politicians. If anyone has ALPA link please post or repost. American@PullThePiggyFromTheTrough Thanks.

 

The majors are short staffed as it is. May help them catch up.

But, as Rick said, those that want to continue to work and can hold a medical will only be a portion.

Not much would change for hiring.

Progression to WB CA may move a bit to the right. May be an extra year for those a ways away.