Would imagine there will be a few empty flight decks on Friday. The term FUPM comes to mind.

 

Official statement commented about lack of details in specific areas and concerns about contract langauge.

Judges have granted additional time in the past. We'll know by Happy Hour on Friday.

 

I project an 11th hour deal, will Horton really gamble on it, if he gambles wrong a USAIR deal might become an instant deal. A. pilot go out to lunch and 40% of all flight cx for weeks. B. this enters another 4+ months of talks because the judge tells them to get a new 1113, which means nothing new happens at AA, or Eagle.

 

Not outside the realm of possibility. But it matters little if any changes are simply tailored to get past the BOD. The pilot group is a harder sell, especially on scope. Extremely unlikely anything would get a pass unless scope had VERY specific and defendable language. The '97 RJ agreement and the 7300 floor created too much collateral damage.

What's the point of sugaring it up now, only to have it fail once again in a month ?

Truly a poorly played, ugly mess this is. The irony is that if Horton hadn't put Brundage out front, hired Lorenzo's old player and didn't go for the jugular, we may have been in a completely different place now. Almost certainly, CLA's with Parker wouldn't be in place and that would be a totally different equation.

 

On Friday that guesstimate of about 100, might go back up a bit. I think some guys were on the fence depending on the outcome of negotiations.

 

New pension regulation yesterday would allow AA to freeze the plan and end the lump sum provision in certain cases. 60 day comment period prior to implementation, so I'd expect many retirements in the next 2 mos.

 

I don't know where you guys come up with this stuff!

Look the A-fund will be frozen versus terminated. Why would anyone rush to the exit?

The B-fund still has a lump sum feature and even if we move to the new DC plan, it's in the 401K plan and you can take it all upon retirement. Why would anyone rush to the exit?

Both the company and US have proposed pay raises plus the company (AA) has up the ante with a 13.5 percent equity stake in the emerged AA. Why would anyone rush to the exit?

The senior guys will remain senior no matter who eventually lead the company.

This is all wishful thinking to believe we'll see a mad rush for the exits.

I do believe the senior captains over 60 will make an informed decision about whether they keep working or have decided its time to relax. But there won't be any sudden run on the bank here.

 

58 left 6/1, all of them early retirements and that's a lot (that would be 700/year in one where only a handful turn 65). The estimate a few weeks ago for 7/1 was 100-200. I thought it would be closer to 100. Recently a source who has been consistantly accurate forcasted that downward to just under 100 (still approaching double that of June). The primary reason for this is the look back lock-in provisions for the B-fund and taking advantage of the 90-day March value which was the peak (April being slightly lower).

However, a forced 1113 will likely raise that to the 120-150 range due to exhaustion, disgust and uncertainty for more senior. Your claims COMPLETELY leave out the truth, which tell me either you're clueless about this issue and its associated factors (as a paid shill who nodded off during the pension briefing might be) or you're locked in "spin mode".

"Mad rush" ?

No.

"Significant retirements", especially considering tsummer schedule, staffing issues and those actually turning 65 ?

Yes.

BTW, why do you think Lane granted only 1 week for futher negotiations and not 2 ?

Is one reason perhaps because AMR is hoping for an APA supported TA by the middle of next week that might calm more who are on the fence from bailing 7/1 ?

I do.

They may still have a day or two to decide not to pull the ripcord. The 767/777 schedule could be a real mess in July/August if a lot bail from those seats by all those combined factors and any imposed 1113 benefits take time to kick in. A bat to the head of 767/777 crews won't be that productive, if you ask me.

 

No shortage of conspiracy thinking here. I believe it was actually a mutually agreed to decision with AA, the APA leadership and Judge Lane.

Thinking is a choice! You tend toward the negative and I lean toward the positive. Both are needed at times. The trick, I'm sure you'll agree, is getting the balance right.

Best

 

I'm considering one motive, not overall actions. Yes, I do love your positive thoughts on organized labor, the APA and U/Parker.

A warm and fuzzy kitten, you are !