PHL is a very large, important city, with a reasonable cost of operating, and there is currently a fortress hub there.

Why would anyone give that up? Especially to build up an airport where you can't even add flights (JFK - slots) or really connect anyone (BOS - too far out of the way), both of which have very strong competition in all markets?

 

I don't know, but I tend to agree with aa73. It's hard to predict with any certainty a time frame, but it could just as easily be fairly quick as it could be slow. The LCC/AWA seniority list is still a dogfight, but they are merged.

AA, while in bk, still has a pile of cash, and some huge investments lined up. I don't think money will be a problem. And really, on the surface, it wouldn't take that much. JBLU stock has been flat for 4 years, losing about 2% over the past 52 weeks. But the biggie is the market cap is only $1.7B. (for comparison, UAL $8.0, DAL $11.8) IMHO, it would be a heckuva deal right now. 'Course, you're probably right, a bidding war would break out to some degree, if nothing else, to try and make AMR overpay.

But I think as aa73 pointed out, you gotta follow the money and also what's being done in the different markets. Specifically, in this case, BOS. Then you got that big ole' AA terminal in JFK that they currently aren't running at anywhere close to max capacity. At some point, they are going to crank that thing up and it'll be game on in JFK. If I were them, I'd just buy JetBlue and be done with it.

I don't presume to know exactly what the DOT will do, but if recent history is an indicator, they've just been getting outta the way for the most part. Seems the government realizes that a handful of healthy airlines are better than a bunch of sick ones.

Be an interesting few years for sure either way.

 

According to that link that Smalls put up, the NYC airport slot restrictions have expired, which I hadn't heard about, but certainly is an interesting wrinkle if true.

 

majority of JB flights in JFK are outside the time zone for slot controlled period. Currently only DAL does anything as a fight with JB, AA just sitting on the side licking its wounds. If AA wants to (in JFK) it has ample slots to complete on a better to travel time for passengers and anything before 3pm in JFK is non slot. So AA could compete against JB on any route before 3pm to 8pm (slot period) without giving up any slot usage. All it takes is balls.

 

The Airline CEO's have finally, after 34 years of Deregulation, figured out there is NO MONEY in competing. That's why we are seeing all the consolodation. I seriously doubt AA wants to compete with JB for JFK, they will instead buy them, flush the overlap, and voila, not have to lower their prices to 'compete' with JB. High Fives and Management Bonuses all around.

See SWA+Air Tran, DAL+NWA, and UAL+CAL for more details.

It's the inevitable result of deregulation.

But why it took the CEO's 34 years and all those bankruptcies to figure it out is beyond me.

 

They figured out the bankruptcy thing a long time ago real good

 

Well yeah, it was Frank Lorenzo who taught them how to "Neogtiate" with labor...

"Take the Pay Cuts, Or Else..."

 

There was an extension to the slot procedures until Oct 26, 2013. After that the FAA is supposed to have some new 'Congestion Management Rule' for JFK/LGA/EWR

https://www.federalregister.gov/arti...tional-airport

 

4 year thread bump.

Now the merger has occurred, what's the new rumors about AA and BOS?

 

Well, as of the June bid, pilots were still being awarded positions in BOS. That's encouraging.

I did hear from a LAA BOS pilot (so consider the source carefully) that eventually, all of AAL in BOS will operate out of terminal B1, or the LUS terminal, with SWA moving from Terminal A to the current LAA terminal, B2.

If the crew domicile survives the move -- i.e., renting new office space in B1, moving all the domicile infrastructure from B2 to B1, etc. -- then I think the base will be safe.

Rumored timeline is mid-2017 to mid-2018, but again, unsubstantiated.