Yeah you would, wouldn't you! As per your posting in another thread. I would actually love to see the other way around occur.

 

It's not about how much NY loves JB. AA will go after JB as a hostile takeover, and the DOJ will most likely approve it with obviously some asset/slot divesting. There is a lot more to this than meets the eye, folks - many heavy hitters behind the scenes. It's is a business deal, nothing more, and $$$ talks. Bottom line is that IAG has some very deep pockets and think of this - oneworld is not very well represented in NY (other than JFK-LHR.) My bet is that in 5 years, AA will be bigger than DL in NY.

 

I think it makes sense too aa73. We keep slashing and cutting anything over here ( benefits wise) in a desperate attempt to raise our share price. Even with poster q4 profit our stock has sunk lower. I think our time as an independent carrier is running out. I hope the folks that didn't feel the need for representation here don't get a rude awakening when we all get the email.

 

You are exactly right that the cost per emplanement is much higher in JFK than PHL, but if the whole plane is filled with Joe Schmo flying CMH-PHL-LHR then the total revenue will be proportionately lower as well. High fare business travellers are the bread and butter of TATL traffic, and a large chunk of them live in the NYC area. The 18yr old from CMH who is going to backpack across Europe isnt much more than a blip on the radar.

I've thought about this in the past as well, but when you look at the PANYNJ traffic statistics for EWR/JFK/LGA it would put the big 3 on a surprisingly level playing field with each controlling between 20-25% of the NYC traffic. Comparing slot portfolios with DL JFK and AA/JB JFK it is about the same as well. DL uses a ton of RJs, which lowers their potential ASMs for JFK.

 

I agree with you KillingMeSmalls.

American had negotiated a massive JetBlue codeshare in it's first LBO and now that has been paired way back. Lets not forget that US Airways has also paired way back in NYC and BOS in anticipation of this merger.

IMHO I would anticipate the new American to reemerge in Boston after antitrust/DOT review. Has anyone noticed how American and US airways terminals are being connected with new gates?

 

Could AA fit in US side of Terminal B as things stand now? AA and US have cut so much capacity I cant imagine they would need very many gates.

Massport says that United/Continental will use Terminal B, Pier A when the construction is completed. AA will be in Pier A as well, but has given up 4 gates + 4 Eagle RJ gates (Section 1.2):
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...41642243,d.dmg

 

While I do agree that eventually AA will attempt a hostile takeover of JB, it's not happening anytime soon. First, they need to finish the US Air deal and complete the merger and seniority list integration, which could take years. Then they need to recoup the reorganization money lost over this period to finance a hostile bid, which again will take years.

In the mean time, it is likely that B6 continues to improve its stock price, I think a year ago it was in the $3.00 range, now it is in the $6.00 range. While not great, it has still almost doubled. Hostile bids are not cheap and I would expect Delta or United to try a bidding war to prevent the AA/B6 domination of the New York market.

And of course B6 will probably be B6/ALPA by then, I wouldn't be surprised to see ALPA after this next drive based on current Delta/United/AMR contracts and the healthcare debacle. That's mt .02cents, which is worth about half of that.

 

That's called originating traffic; I think you missed my point. NY is big, but there are more than just backpackers that live in the rest of the United States. A HUB, in my definition, is a city you make connections through. PHL will be a HUB.

I agree that NY is very important market but between LGA and JFK the new AA would have a decent presence and still fly it's bread and butter.

Yeah, sure dude.

This is for JFK

 

I have not seen that. Interesting.

Here is an link I just found: Slots and Exemptions | Department of Transportation
I've heard the term "soft slots" in the NY area. I didn't know why until I read this.

Who knows? They could scale down PHL and ramp up both NY and BOS.

 

In fairness, Smalls, Flyby talked about PANYNJ traffic for the entire region (LGA,EWR & JFK - you posted JFK only). If you look up the regions' passenger traffic, I would imagine you'd see a big difference in your chart. When he talked about JFK specifically, he referenced "slot portfolios", not passengers. I don't know if you can look up 'slots'. If not, maybe the best you could do would be compare each airlines daily departure numbers.