Maybe it'd help to define what we mean by "pilot". Train engineers retain their title, but all they really do is talk on the radio, blow the horn and press the dead-man switch. If that's all my job is going to entail, I want to do something else.

 

The 737 MAX LOL, and the NEO's Airbus even the Leap of 2015 deliveries will not make it to 2035.

I firmly believe by 2035 1 pilot and 2040 No pilots.

They've been testing autopilots on cars for 2 years now. On freeways near you.

By 2030 I also predict no APU's on airliners.

Right now heavy duty brushless starters on Learjet 85 and with GTF's by 2030 Airliner ETOPs will be dramatically increased and we'll think Wow the 787 originally was only 330 min's .

 

By 2035 all planes will be electric and gamers will be piloting them from a Playstation or Xbox on their lazy boy at home.

 

Elon Musk thinks so:

Are electric aircraft next for Tesla's Elon Musk?

 

................

 

A few thing to not forget;

1. The government and the $$$$ that would have to be appropriated to get a system of this capability up to speed. How long does it take to build a bridge, fix a freeway, or even pass a spending bill? The cost is astronomical and the funding will not EVER be there. We are still utilizing an ATC system with the newest 1970's technology.

2. Flight attendants, yes flight attendants are ALWAYS GOING TO BE REQUIRED. As it is, FA's primary role is safety, and ensuring safe emergency exiting of an aircraft if necessary. The service is really second in their job. Now, how many FA's would be willing to fly without pilots? Take a poll, I actually have when this topic comes up with the crew, and in my few years I have met 1 that said they would do it without pilots. However, that was only if they got "much higher pay", had access to flight deck, and were trained to manually fly the aircraft.

3. There is no such thing as a "operator-less" piece of transportation equipment anywhere. All have control centers that are manned, see that word MANNED, by humans. I do believe technology is going to continue to grow, but with the dynamics of aviation, it will never be without humans. As someone mentioned before, trains still have operators, whether on-board or remotely.

People keep bringing up cars and how they will drive themselves. But will there still not be a person in the car? I do not see me being able to sit on my ass while my car goes and picks up my kid from school. Look at the testing, not the advertising, the actual testing. It's not as going so well. That is in a controlled test track environment as well

The day may be coming, but humans will always be operating/supervising/controlling the overall operation. If that means me in a building flying a couple remotes planes around, fine. I will be home everyday, can take smoke breaks, go pee without needed to ask for others help, not blow money on ****ty airport food, won't miss birthdays, anniversary, weddings, graduations and hell, might even get paid more since profits will be higher without as much cost.....sign me up. In the end it's a Sci-Fi nerds wet dream. That's all

 

Where in that article did he say pilotless aircraft?

 

You will be able to spend even more time on your phone!

 

I think you are right. Flying the last 40 yrs coming up to 30 with
AA. The rate of change procedure wise has not been linear in the past, but IMO exponential. I'd say we are getting close to single
Pilot plus an OTJ apprentice Helper (no offense to my excellent experienced FO's) Except in dire simulator events, 2 experienced
Pilots is overkill. NoT saying it isn't safer with 2, but a pilot monitor, as we refer to the nonflying pilot, doesn't necessarily need to be a fully capable pilot, particularly with the automation we fly with that
Will probably get more automated with the 779. Take out communications with CPDLC AND NAVIGATION/profile with gps/sat
And we will be at one pilot workload at best with ground back-up.
Your forecast seems very plausible to, even conservatively speaking.

 

To work with Charles Barkley, these pilotless pundits could be right, but I doubt it. We'll all be dead before it ever happens.