So I watched the most recent Crew News with Kirby speaking in PHX. A question regarding the future of the Airbus (specifically the 320, not the 319 or 321, but just the 320) in PHX was raised. Kirby stated that going forward the 320 will most likely be phased out of the new AA all together, leaving 319 and 321's throughout the system. In place of the 320, the plan is to have 737 replace it. For PHX, he basically says the 737 will be coming to PHX and that can be done as soon as the PSS is done. However, there is then a lot of discussion about how NO pilot can move bases till FOS is done (Sept 2016). So with that how can new equipment be brought into a base as soon as PSS is done (7 days), but pilots will not be able to move for another year possible? Are the 737's operating out of PHX in the future going to be staffed via another base? That's what I am thinking.

He seemed confident FOS done by Sept 2016. Last time he was in PHX he said 2017 possible, but it looks like he and the team are backing off that statement. Best part, him discussing domestic growth in certain bases later in the conversation. No one brought up he mentioned very early in the discussion that all/most of domestic growth will be.....at the regionals. So AA will slightly grow domestically, just now in your neck of the woods if you're mainline.

 

Why do they keep giving the microphone to the kids wings guy?

 

Thankfully he asked about Brazil....

 

I'd expect a lot of fly-through trips through PHX from other bases, especially LAX and DFW. Besides, any draw down of straight 320's will take time and be gradual. I expect once the seniority list is merged and becomes maliable 4-6 months later (according to AAG), that, along with PBS will result in a period of pilot surplus at mainlne that will take awhile to rebalance. A modest 10% effeciency gain due to that could mean 1500 pilots in excess and how long would retirments take to bleed that down to a balance based on static growth ?

The wild card is what capability will the regional segment REALLY be able to handle in the future. Personally, I expect consitant contraction there fleet and pilot wise, but a higher percentage of larger 76-seat RJ's will keep ASM's stable for that same transitionary period while mainline rebalances. In a few years once the above occurs and mainline is again balanced, is where it really gets interesting considering the regional segement will almost certainly be in complete free-fall. Even more so interesting considering we will be entering or in the beginning of section 6 negotiations then.

 

What I get out of it is you could possibly see AA crews fly through PHX on 737s. They have said before that they aren't going to open bases in each other's domiciles.

 

What is PHX anyway ?

From my understanding, it has a predominantly leisure travel market more suited to morphing into a busier outstation vs. a hub in the future. That is the fundimental aspect of the original America West's business plan and operation. All present hubs are required to remain so, but not for that much longer and fly-through coupled with gradual, but steady contraction at PHX could make phase out of 320's there and transition to fly-through 737's failrly easy. Concurrently, 320 draw down would also occur at LUS East hubs and timing between all that could be fairly steady and smooth.

Just my .02......

 

A modest 10% increase in efficiency? A loss of 1500 jobs?
What information did you get for hours per pilot before making your guess?

 

PBS developers claim 10%-15% better efficiency. PBS eliminates month to month conflicts, vacation conflicts, and training conflicts.

 

AA split their order book to the 319/321 and 737 to fill all three markets. I have a hunch they would've bought all Airbus products but there simply wasn't enough capacity on Airbus' part to churn out that many aircraft.

It's unfortunate because it would've aligned us more with the simplicity model of SWA, but what's done is done.

 

The regionals won't be able to keep up staffing domestically so it's a pipe dream to say our growth domestically will be all regionals. I see many routes coming back to mainline in 2-5 years.

Also, don't forget to mention the comment about expanding internationally. LAX and DFW specifically, the real push for growth is more international flying. A new route every 9 months they say.

The guy leading the FOS project is confident about the Sept 2016 single FOS, who clearly knows more than Kirby. In fact, if I recall correctly he said it will be done April 2016 and then five months of testing...so conceivably if all goes well, it could be done earlier but Sept 16' gives them enough slack room.