Aviation Carbon Emissions Progress
12-15-2020, 09:28 PM
#32
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Posts: 627
I can't believe none of you have mentioned that the world population is actually likely to DECLINE past the middle of this century.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0715150444.htm
Hell.......in most places (primarily in the western world) the total fertility rate is already less than the replacement level fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_...by_Country.svg
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0715150444.htm
Hell.......in most places (primarily in the western world) the total fertility rate is already less than the replacement level fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_...by_Country.svg
12-16-2020, 06:27 AM
#33
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Originally Posted by Bahamasflyer
I can't believe none of you have mentioned that the world population is actually likely to DECLINE past the middle of this century.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0715150444.htm
Hell.......in most places (primarily in the western world) the total fertility rate is already less than the replacement level fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_...by_Country.svg
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0715150444.htm
Hell.......in most places (primarily in the western world) the total fertility rate is already less than the replacement level fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_...by_Country.svg
But even so, there's no guarantee that will last forever and I think it probably won't. Once folks get enlightened, distanced from medieval societal values, and have bandwidth and access to all the recreational opportunities of the developed world they naturally tend to delay children, and have fewer of them in the interest of prolonging their own childhood. But take that TOO far, ie people get really comfortable with easy access to everything they need and plenty of free time they may tend to start having larger families again. Many wealthy folks have significantly more than 1.8 kids... because they can, and it's fulfilling.
Also you never know what kind of religious values might pop up in the future, I can think of one or two which promote big families and are thriving AND embracing everything the modern world has to offer. Don't assume religion fades into the background, it might not.
12-16-2020, 06:52 AM
#34
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,503
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Yes, IF the developing world can become sufficiently developed then experience has shown that fertility rate will drop (not accounting for possible religious or political drivers to the contrary).
But even so, there's no guarantee that will last forever and I think it probably won't. Once folks get enlightened, distanced from medieval societal values, and have bandwidth and access to all the recreational opportunities of the developed world they naturally tend to delay children, and have fewer of them in the interest of prolonging their own childhood. But take that TOO far, ie people get really comfortable with easy access to everything they need and plenty of free time they may tend to start having larger families again. Many wealthy folks have significantly more than 1.8 kids... because they can, and it's fulfilling.
Also you never know what kind of religious values might pop up in the future, I can think of one or two which promote big families and are thriving AND embracing everything the modern world has to offer. Don't assume religion fades into the background, it might not.
But even so, there's no guarantee that will last forever and I think it probably won't. Once folks get enlightened, distanced from medieval societal values, and have bandwidth and access to all the recreational opportunities of the developed world they naturally tend to delay children, and have fewer of them in the interest of prolonging their own childhood. But take that TOO far, ie people get really comfortable with easy access to everything they need and plenty of free time they may tend to start having larger families again. Many wealthy folks have significantly more than 1.8 kids... because they can, and it's fulfilling.
Also you never know what kind of religious values might pop up in the future, I can think of one or two which promote big families and are thriving AND embracing everything the modern world has to offer. Don't assume religion fades into the background, it might not.
So yeah, in the end the future actually belongs to those who show up.
12-16-2020, 06:56 AM
#35
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
The future belongs to those who actually show up. European culture handicapped itself by a couple generations of sub replacement growth and that’s like compound interest in reverse. A reproductive generation is only about 27-28 years. Yes, I know women who have had babies over 40, but they aren’t the rule. Far more have them in their teens. So a half century of single child families leaves you with 1/4 the number of reproductive age females and you wind up importing workers from countries like Somalia (fertility rate 5.936 births per woman) to keep the economy going and the aged fed and cared for. And they, naturally enough, import their own culture with them.
So yeah, in the end the future actually belongs to those who show up.
So yeah, in the end the future actually belongs to those who show up.
02-26-2021, 03:36 PM
#36
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Airline Chiefs petitioning White House to support/incentivize SAF. IMO the gov should support it, since they're almost assured to start placing carbon limits on aviation...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN2AQ2XG
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN2AQ2XG
02-26-2021, 04:39 PM
#37
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02-26-2021, 06:18 PM
#38
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Posts: 5,177
Originally Posted by Excargodog
Leaving clear space now that the triple canopy has been removed for new trees to grow. In the meantime, all that lumber is sequestering the CO2. Despite COVID, global population has increased by 77,817,825 Net population growth this year. Do you want them to have houses? Or live in cardboard shacks on the sidewalk?
03-05-2021, 09:42 AM
#39
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03-10-2021, 03:37 PM
#40
Perennial Reserve
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Posts: 11,503
Criiipes...
Buying indulgences ain’t cheap....
https://simpleflying.com/airline-sus...-disadvantage/
an excerpt (bold added)
On an intra-European flight, the cost for 10% SAFs in the tanks is about $5 to $10 per ticket. For a long-haul service, it adds about $40. But they still have to be willing to pay for it and make airlines aware that they are.
Otherwise, without regulatory mandates, demand will remain low. The investment needed to sufficiently scale the production of SAFs will not materialize, and the supply will not be enough to make a dent in aviation’s greenhouse gas emissions
https://simpleflying.com/airline-sus...-disadvantage/
an excerpt (bold added)
Not prohibitively expensive when shared among passengers
The price for SAFs is generally between three and five times higher than that of conventional jet fuel. For passengers, the cost per ticket would not vary all that greatly when shared.On an intra-European flight, the cost for 10% SAFs in the tanks is about $5 to $10 per ticket. For a long-haul service, it adds about $40. But they still have to be willing to pay for it and make airlines aware that they are.
Otherwise, without regulatory mandates, demand will remain low. The investment needed to sufficiently scale the production of SAFs will not materialize, and the supply will not be enough to make a dent in aviation’s greenhouse gas emissions
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