| FNGFO |
02-23-2022 01:37 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy
(Post 3377734)
Well, before the Iron Curtain fell, we had MAP (mutually assured paranoia) where both sides worried about the other invading.
Question: how long do you think it takes to build enough military equipment to mount a ground offensive?
Let's go into paranoid gaming mode for this. Let's say all VW, BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Opel, and Smart car factories in Germany were converted to produce military vehicles. How many armored infantry vehicles could they crank out every month? How many months before an aggressive Germany, wanting to secure natural gas supplies, be capable of mounting a ground offensive?
I would be surprised if the Russian military hasn't done tabletop exercises along similar lines.
This may seem farfetched but Europe has an energy deficit problem. Russia has energy.
Paranoid? Perhaps. But suggesting that Germany would become a superpower after WWI was also paranoid, especially with the huge reparations levied on them from the Treaty of Versailles.
You may disagree with Russia's desire to have a large land buffer to protect them from European aggression but I wouldn't dismiss it.
Those that cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
-George Santayana
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That kind of build up and national will isn’t something that happens in 6 months. Everyone can see it coming. Germany hasn’t had any real interest in playing war in decades. Or Europe for that matter.
Russia has resources. The country with the population, will, military and eventual need for those resources doesn’t lay to the West of them nor would they choose that route for invasion. Learning from history is a thing, but you can walk your happy a$$ right into oncoming traffic pretty easily by looking back over your shoulder the entire time.
Defending the 9 passes into Russia with what constitutes the current Russian military is a fools errand and leaves them wide open from the other side. That’s not a problem of immediacy, but it’s where the problem will come from. There’s a reason we shut down sub hunting bases in the Caribbean and consolidated our nuclear wings into a couple of bases. The threat requiring the other facilities them no longer exists. |
