swaayze

Welcome to trying to get hired at top tier airlines. This is very normal. Patience is an absolute necessity in this business if you want the smoothest path to your goal (I know because I've been there and made questionable moves due to "a need to move"). The good news is that it's only gonna get easier for the next few years before it slows again (assuming no catastrophic events of course).

TransWorld

I can understand. Until the last couple of years hiring was 200-400 a year across all the majors. Pilots were on furlough with the majors. This year it is 4,000.

A couple of years ago at Envoy, AA was flowing pilots with 25 years experience. Right now they are down to 10 years experience. (Remember the lost decade of hiring). In two more years it will be down to 7 years experience.

The landscape is changing rapidly. Don't think previous lack of offers sets the expectation of the norm going forward.

GrassLandings

How about the other way around.

A regional Capt going to an LCC? 4 year degree and decent GPA.

Stay and wait for the call from a Legacy/ UPS-Fedex, or go for the better QOL such as living in base and hope to still get the call soon.
What would you do?

Riverside

What would you do?

airtim6

I spent 5 years at Skywest with 1 year in the left seat with similar qualifications as you. B6 was the first to call and my thought process was :

Where would I rather be if/when the music stops? A regional whom is at the discretion of a legacy or an airline that sells their own tickets?

My wife has an extremely flexible job so that made our decision a bit easier as well.

Flow through means nothing...FOs at xjt are getting interviews at UA but need to get in line for the next 3 years or more before their number is called...it's a way to suppress guys and keep the feed at the regional level and move 50 seaters.

My recommendation is to move on dude...you'll get a new type rating and another "initial" under
experience which may have been years for you- if your goal is ultimately one of the legacies, the new type/initial training will make you more competitive.

airtim6

Also- whoever is moving from LCC to a regional needs a perspective check and remember what it was like before you earned your current position. Grass seems to always be greener..

Sliceback

It depends. How old are you? How much TT? How much PIC? Turbine PIC? 121 PIC? How many type ratings? Recent new training (new type or upgrade?). Odds of becoming a CKA at your current job?

Write future resumes, projecting an annual update, based on staying or going. The decision might become clearer.

Had this exact discussion two days ago with a 29 yr old with 2500 TT, four yr degree, and about to upgrade. Should he stay for the upgrade or chase a LCC? Peers were talking about leaving now. They, IMO mistakenly, think a 320 type rating might be more valuable than upgrading at a regional. If he stays in 5-6 yrs his resume will be better than the median legacy civilian new hire's resume. If he leaves for a LCC now it will take him longer to achieve that 'average'.

Rahlifer

Moving on to an LCC is MUCH better than sticking around at a regional for a silly upgrade. Plenty of individuals from my company have jumped to an LCC and then moved on to a legacy within 12 months. The last thing anyone should do is get cozy at some regional and risk getting stuck.

Sliceback

In the case I mentioned leaving for a LCC now would give him this resume in five years -

6500 TT, 1200 PIC, zero TPIC. Two type ratings. FO only 121 experience. LCC FO. 34 yrs old.

Staying four years and then going to a LCC provides this resume -

6500 TT, 4000 PIC(2800 TPIC), 121 CA four years, two type ratings. LCC FO. 34 yrs old.

Seven years would just improve his resume. If he was a regional CA after a couple of years, and no CKA prospect in the near future, I'd recommend that he move on unless there's a guaranteed flow.

In the meantime he's staying. That's the advice he's getting from several sources. He was seeking other opinions since a couple of FO's were talking about leaving for a LCC and the advice he got was fairly similar - for him the upgrade is worth more than another FO job on a larger jet. In the future that might change.

As far as getting stuck? There's a good chance the risk of long term stagnation is very low. 13,350 retirements in the next 7 years at DL/UA/AA. Add in JB/SW/AS/FX/UP and it's another 3,700. 17,000 jobs. That's about 100% of all the regional pilot corps today.
Current manning totals 41,350 at the Big 3. Even a 15% furlough would require hiring in early 2021. The overall risk appears to be low.

Flyby1206

If you go to a regional and the flowthrough comes to a screeching halt will you be happy sitting there for a decade waiting for your number? If yes, then go for it.