Paulwillflyu

Had someone started flying five years ago (Maybe ATP or University or even someone who already had a degree and got all their ratings at a local FBO) this current hiring frenzy, accompanying bonuses etc....has been likely the best "ever"? Maybe?

Anyone have a best guess on when this bubble might burst? Obviously, the 2 year pay bumps for regionals expires August 2024.

The next big hurdles I imagine will be single pilot cockpit, a worldwide recession, and any future pandemics.

Starting from PPL or zero time today and doing ATP or similar timeline for training locally, how does everyone see that timeline in terms of regional hiring, bonuses, tuition reimbursement etc...

The simple answer I'm sure is "Anything can happen" but are we still looking at 5-7 years of "good times" maybe?

rickair7777

This has been the best time ever within the working lifetimes of anyone reading this. Might have been a similar boom in the mid-1960's.

It's fairly easy to predict...

1. Assume a conservative 2-3% industry growth long-term. There have been higher estimates recently, but the usual expert opinions (Boeing, Airbus, A4A) now seem to be assuming less growth due to carbon concerns and mitigation. That's for North America... there may well be higher growth overseas which indirectly helps things US pilots as foreigners (who usually consider the US the best place to be an airline pilot) have improved opportunities at home and stay there. Also some US pilots may chase contract work overseas if they pay enough.

2. The rest of the "bubble" is mandatory retirements, and those are almost 100% predictable. About the worst thing that *might* happen is age 67. Personally I suspect it will happen, but necessarily in this decade. Worst case, age 67 is a minor speedbump... I'd estimate that only 30-40% of pilots are both able and willing to work past 65. Most will retire (or go out on disability, which is why the airlines are not in favor at this point). IIRC we're almost at the peak of the wave, maybe already there since we got a bunch of early retirements during covid. The peak should extend through 2025-ish, and then start to taper off but the hiring demand will still be EXCELLENT by historical industry norms through 2030, and then still pretty decent for many years to come after. There are thread on APC where people have summarized the known retirements at the major airlines.

My guess is that you'll still be able to get a job quickly. The great benefit of being early in the wave is rapid seniority progression as people come in below you, the later you get hired, the less benefit you'll enjoy from that aspect. A good adjective for the current seniority growth opportunity in the industry is "insane".

Not during your working lifetime, worst case they might let airlines get rid of the third relief pilot on some long-haul ops. My opinion is based on education and experience with relevant technology and also experience with industry and government. There are several detailed discussions on that here:

https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/aviation-technology/

That happens about every ten years on average anyway. In the past those have been real hard on pilot career progression, including mass furloughs. The last two (covid and the current recessiony thing going on) don't seem to be hurting pilots though. It's pretty hard to plan your career around downturns, probably best to assume you'll get hit by one and then hope you're senior enough at your career destination to not really be impacted by more than one.

Assuming that you train and fly aggressively you can generally get to 1500 hours in about two years, perhaps three if you're less aggressive. I'd get a PPL before committing to an expensive career training program though, to make sure you actually like it.

Do you have a degree? Though not strictly required anymore, that's still a competitive factor, and will be even more so by the end of the decade.

Regionals will still be hiring, and offering bonuses, tuition, etc for five years at least I would guess.

Yes, slowing down later in the decade but still good.

Xdashdriver

The bubble will only "burst" (rapid change) if a major negative event occurs. Another worldwide pandemic would likely fit that bill if recent history is anything to go by. Then again, we've rebounded pretty quickly from that one. Worldwide recession will definitely have an impact, how much depends on how bad it gets. The mitigating factor that might soften the blow is that time marches on and the retirements will still have to happen. The biggest "risk" facing someone looking at jumping in is the longer they wait the shorter the "good times" will be and the longer it will take to achieve the very best this career has to offer. Following a long wave of retirements necessarily comes a long drought of retirements and the damping effects that has on seniority growth. The age of person looking to jump in plays into the mix too.

The one thing in your list I'm not too concerned about, at least for passenger carrying operations is the single pilot thing. Technology may move at lightning pace but government certainly does not and the FAA is probably one of the slowest moving agencies in the government. Barring some major catastrophe in which the implementation of single pilot cockpits is worth the risk in the short term, it's a ways out still in my opinion.

As far as timeline goes, you can be in the right seat of a narrowbody airliner in about 2 years right now. Whether that's your destination carrier or not is a different question, but even those airlines perceived as "top-tier" by some are at least preparing themselves to be able to hire straight from the flight schools.

sofarup

Hell, you can be in the right seat of a WB in 2 years, too.