Hopefully things will get better, relatively, then they are right now. But a bona fide shortage? As they say, since the dawn of aviation there has never been a pilot shortage, as there were two right brothers and only one flyer.

 

Shortage or not, I can't think of many scenarios that includes QOL or prestige increasing for pilots at all. Most people see us as expensive bus drivers... and that's not just management!

 

Ok so here's the question. In August ALL pilots will need an ATP in order to work at a part 121 carrier. Something WILL have to change.

As of right now you have some degree of competition among the regionals because one can higher at lower mins, for example Great Lakes will look at you if you have around 900-1,000 hours. But what will happen when ALL regionals won't be able to go below 1,500 hours??? Not to mention in the next 2-3 years the majors will be sucking up thousands of pilots leaving huge gaps at the regionals.

Will this eventually put some regionals at risk? Who's going to go to Great Lakes at $16 per hour when they can go somewhere else and earn 50% more?

Does this make sense to you guys?

Btw: If I was Great Lakes i'd take these guys with 800 hours and give them a 3 year contract. Buy up 4-5 C172's and put 2 pilots in each and get them flying 6-8 hours per day one doing hood work and the other safety pilot. Once they're at 1,500 get their ATP and still have over 2 years they have to stay at Great Lakes.

 

The 1500 rule will be good in many ways, but I think it coincides with the backside of the ballistic trajectory of the regional business model...regionals will be shrinking for the forseeable future (maybe growth at a few, but that will come at the expense of the others). 50-seaters are going away and will be replaced 2-for-1 with larger RJ's, or not at all.

In the event of a true pilot shortage, I suspect great lakes and the like would probably fold in a matter of months...they can't afford to pay livable or competitive wages, much less subsidize flight training or time building for entry-level pilots. EAS service would be lost to a lot of podunk towns, with negligible financial impact to the nation as a whole (slight economic boon to rental car companies).

 

The same people will go to GL that go there now, those that are independently wealthy, those that can scrounge by, etc. I don't see much changing, except people CFI-ing for longer.

 

There are a few challenges ahead.......the industry will adapt...how? Thats the million dollar question. I am of the belief that the "legacy" and maybe even some lesser companies will turn to the "Cadet/ab into" type training programs to fill a percentage of their seats. I dont believe it will be for "high school dropouts"..... the right program, with REAL jeopardy of washing out, specific training programs with only so many "do overs" ... it can probably work. Are there tremendous hurdles...yes. There will always be a supply (albeit much smaller than in the past) of military pilots, but in 5 or 10 years even with improving wages in real terms, the cost of entry is getting prohibitive.

Kings... I am with the above poster,,, I dont believe it was ever as some would have you believe. Well paid yes, respected ...yes....live like Kings... I dont think so.

 

In addition, there has never been a shortage of false tales about the "good old days" and erroneous predictions about the future of aviation.

 

I personally believe in a shortage for regionals, but not majors as many people are hoping for. In any case let's all hope that if their is a shortage we can actually use it to improve pay and QOL.

 

I suspect that airlines will run their own ab initio programs (contracted out to lowest bidder) before they raise pay/QOL. It would allow graduates to become CFIs to get to 1500, then head over to the airline. Ratings, room, and board provided free (plus $50/month beer money).

That way they only have to pay while the pilot shortage lasts...otherwise they would be stuck with contractual improvements until their next trip through the BK drive-through.

 

Before the airlines raise pay/QOL; Airline mgmts will do everything in their power to prevent it. Even the cadet pilot programs will be last resort.

For all those who wonder what is likely to happen over the next few years, Pls consider this;

AS an unintended consequence of the ATP rule; What will happen is the Income & QOL of numerous career CFI's & other Career GA pilots who work in Jump/banner tow/ aerial mapping & Pipeline patrol, all those pilots life's QOL will take a major hit.

Already, on some of the message boards, new CFI's are offering to fly for free or split time & even MEI's are posting to split multi time. I am not saying it is right or wrong, all I am saying is what I am observing & what is happening TODAY.

People will line up at FBO's dropping numerous resumes everyday & FBO owners are no better than airline mgmts. FBO's are already pressed with low student volume & rising costs. They will take utmost advantage of that situation. The pay will stagnate initially & gradually decline.
The free CFI's desperate to break the 1200 or 1500 hrs barrier will do anything to reach that level. 141 programs will also take a hit, the low number of students will need to have more hours, so they will fly part 61, means even less flying to CFI's, it will be a self feeding situation.

TSA policies have already made USA very low on the choice list of international students, the number is sharply declining. Canada, Phillipines, NZ & AUS are taking a major share of international student volume.

Employers of pipeline patrol, aerial mapping etc etc are all small business owners, who are also pressed with rising costs & will be forced to follow suit. They will know they have fresher pilots by the ba!!$ & with nowhere to go, so they will abuse them freely & frequently.

PAY TO PLAY Abuse will Increase:
Already places like Alpine air are offering first officer programs, Pay to play programs will rise, if not every cargo outfit, an increasing number of those will be lured to enter the pay to play programs.....

Alpine Air :: Beech 99

Just look at the website of EAGLE JET, you can tell which companies are partcipating just by looking at A/C.

Even small charter operator may follow suit, why not have a paying FO in the right seat to augment revenue generation.

Who doesn't want extra income/revenue, not the corporate bean counters at least.!!!

As far as PAY/QOL increase, if ever regional airlines or even majors, ever have a slighest issue to find pilots, then:

1) 1st thing to go away will be the 2 or 4 yr degree.
2) Then next standards that will erode or get relaxed will driving records, speeding tickets, even DUI,
3) Then closely followed by check ride failure standards.
4) Multi Time will be relaxed from whatever it is today, 500 to 200 to 100 to 50

Simple Reasons:
***Now FAA has given them ATP, FAA deems them FIT to fly an airliner...
Insurance companies will also be satisfied, they pilots are deemed by FAA as FIT to fly airliners...***

PAY & QOL RAISE at regionals will have to wait for quite a few years. But before that, PAY & QOL of every possible GA job will be damaged beyond repair..

Those who deny this side of the un-intended consequences of 1500 hr rule, either
1) have little or zero knowledge & understanding of how corporate America or infact any free market economy thinks & works, or
2) are acting extremely selfish just because they think that airlines may offer joining or hiring bonuses & eventually the PILOT profession, PAY or QOL will improve.

BUT then again, who cares about those career CFIs & GA pilots, aerial mapping & pipeline patrol pilots or even junior pilots or first officers at charter/ cargo.

Our system is based on the JUNIOR to be sacred sacrfice goat/Cow, to pay the price, take sh!!ty schedules, stay on reserve & slog for years, to slowly & gradually progress & advance ahead & then become the senior & do the same thing to his next generation. The cycle repeats....

RIGHT GUYS......YES the regional airline pilots are likely to get a slight raise from $22.50 per hour to $24.00 per hour.....