Thoughts about the changes in aviation
10-25-2012, 06:25 PM
#21
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Position: BE 90 F.O. / Asst. Chief Flight Instructor
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It sounds like you're right but not completely. What you still haven't considered is that with your so called "every pilot becoming a slave" idea is that if this is true then why would the masses of people still walk into the doors of a flight school to spend thousands of dollars for a career with very low pay, horrible scheduling, and a poor QOL? Yes you're probably thinking that's how it is now and people are still training. Yes, but I've seen significantly less people starting in the last few years.
Overall from this post it seems that a lot of people have just gotten burnt out with flying since they have possibly gotten the wrong hand of cards, and can't image pilots actually living a good life. Sorry but this time it's changing for the better. And yes, no one really can prove what will happen, so well just have to wait and see.
Happy flying :-)
Overall from this post it seems that a lot of people have just gotten burnt out with flying since they have possibly gotten the wrong hand of cards, and can't image pilots actually living a good life. Sorry but this time it's changing for the better. And yes, no one really can prove what will happen, so well just have to wait and see.
Happy flying :-)
10-25-2012, 07:47 PM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 620
Originally Posted by Caelum Deus
It sounds like you're right but not completely. What you still haven't considered is that with your so called "every pilot becoming a slave" idea is that if this is true then why would the masses of people still walk into the doors of a flight school to spend thousands of dollars for a career with very low pay, horrible scheduling, and a poor QOL? Yes you're probably thinking that's how it is now and people are still training. Yes, but I've seen significantly less people starting in the last few years.
Overall from this post it seems that a lot of people have just gotten burnt out with flying since they have possibly gotten the wrong hand of cards, and can't image pilots actually living a good life. Sorry but this time it's changing for the better. I really wish that .And yes, no one really can prove what will happen, so well just have to wait and see.
Happy flying :-)
Overall from this post it seems that a lot of people have just gotten burnt out with flying since they have possibly gotten the wrong hand of cards, and can't image pilots actually living a good life. Sorry but this time it's changing for the better. I really wish that .And yes, no one really can prove what will happen, so well just have to wait and see.
Happy flying :-)
First of all, I am not at all burnt out with flying. I am always very positive, forward thinking individual, who also likes to take into account the realities of life....
I may be completely wrong in my theories and trust me, I really want to be proven wrong & with all my heart, I wish & pray to the GOD, almighty that in the time to come, I should be proven wrong in my theory.....
I will be the happiest person, if my theory regarding the secondary effects of the ATP rule aftermath is proven wrong with time....
The number of students staring training is less due to multiple reasons,
1) Cost &
2) The inflow of foriegn students is down considerably.
Foriegn students were always a huge contributor in US economy. TSA policies is the single bggest contributor for decline of foriegn students. Rising costs & un-available financing is probably the reason for lesser number of local americans starting & completing training.
If the payment was right, people will buy a condo on the moon.....
The only silver lining on the horizon is the very factor that caused this slowdown. The effect of DEC 2007, which saw the age increase from 60 to 65, is almost over & with Dec 2012 approaching, it may trigger enough movement to make an impact.
REST of the world, definitely and infact, it already has started to make a difference in a lot of parts of the world.
In the US, May be.....
The airline managements & their Harward educated MBAs also know this, must have been about thinking about this & definitely preparing for this.
I am getting a feeling that for a couple of years, they will continue to move people around, move their flying from one regional to another, delay the inevitable to as later date as possible.......
Like you said, time will tell & we will wait & see.....
10-26-2012, 07:06 AM
#24
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Joined APC: May 2006
Position: BE 90 F.O. / Asst. Chief Flight Instructor
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Yes we do all hope. :-) but I hope that it's not just hope working in our favor.
I might have a biased perspective but 90% of our students are forgein, which is another reason why there might be a shortage. Since there is increasing percentage of forgein students compared to nationals, these students will train then go home, leaving less pilots for the US. Far as I know, the US is still the cheapest country to do flight training. At least that's what all my students say, and I'm just assuming they have done extensive research prior to making their decision on where to train.
As for the retirement thing, it would only make sense that the airline management would be planning ahead. But after a long talk with a friend of mine who is very connected to AA, I've realized they are planning, but can't take action. To start taking on the amount of pilots they will need will cost them millions in training, which they can't afford to gamble on a "possibility" when another economic crisis or a sharp rise in fuel, would completely destroy certain companies out there. To me it still looks like they're putting the cart before horse, but I also understand why they cant make the investment until they are sure. I agree, they will delay the inevitable, but the inevitable will arrive. Just look at how many pilots will be forced to retire in the upcoming years. AA in 2020 will have close to two pilots a day who will retire. Simply amazing
I might have a biased perspective but 90% of our students are forgein, which is another reason why there might be a shortage. Since there is increasing percentage of forgein students compared to nationals, these students will train then go home, leaving less pilots for the US. Far as I know, the US is still the cheapest country to do flight training. At least that's what all my students say, and I'm just assuming they have done extensive research prior to making their decision on where to train.
As for the retirement thing, it would only make sense that the airline management would be planning ahead. But after a long talk with a friend of mine who is very connected to AA, I've realized they are planning, but can't take action. To start taking on the amount of pilots they will need will cost them millions in training, which they can't afford to gamble on a "possibility" when another economic crisis or a sharp rise in fuel, would completely destroy certain companies out there. To me it still looks like they're putting the cart before horse, but I also understand why they cant make the investment until they are sure. I agree, they will delay the inevitable, but the inevitable will arrive. Just look at how many pilots will be forced to retire in the upcoming years. AA in 2020 will have close to two pilots a day who will retire. Simply amazing
10-26-2012, 07:44 AM
#25
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Joined APC: Oct 2012
Posts: 42
Originally Posted by SongMan
So if I have 3000 TT and only 12 hours of multi, I should wait and not purchase the 88 hours of Multi time to enter Regionals? If they are desperate, they will hire right? Just asking...
10-26-2012, 08:14 AM
#26
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Position: 145
Posts: 219
Originally Posted by bcpilot
Before the airlines raise pay/QOL;
AS an unintended consequence of the ATP rule; What will happen is the Income & QOL of numerous career CFI's & other Career GA pilots who work in Jump/banner tow/ aerial mapping & Pipeline patrol, all those pilots life's QOL will take a major hit.
Already, on some of the message boards, new CFI's are offering to fly for free or split time & even MEI's are posting to split multi time. I am not saying it is right or wrong, all I am saying is what I am observing & what is happening TODAY.
People will line up at FBO's dropping numerous resumes everyday & FBO owners are no better than airline mgmts. FBO's are already pressed with low student volume & rising costs. They will take utmost advantage of that situation. The pay will stagnate initially & gradually decline.
AS an unintended consequence of the ATP rule; What will happen is the Income & QOL of numerous career CFI's & other Career GA pilots who work in Jump/banner tow/ aerial mapping & Pipeline patrol, all those pilots life's QOL will take a major hit.
Already, on some of the message boards, new CFI's are offering to fly for free or split time & even MEI's are posting to split multi time. I am not saying it is right or wrong, all I am saying is what I am observing & what is happening TODAY.
People will line up at FBO's dropping numerous resumes everyday & FBO owners are no better than airline mgmts. FBO's are already pressed with low student volume & rising costs. They will take utmost advantage of that situation. The pay will stagnate initially & gradually decline.
I'm already seeing this where I'm instructing. Our group of CFI's is relatively low time. The university is well aware of the fact that we aren't able to go anywhere because of new hiring minimums, so all of a sudden this semester we are required to work a lot of extra hours. We are now required to work 6 days per week minimum (if our students get behind because of wx we are supposed to come in on our day off but still have to show up on normal days regardless of weather, and our 'normal' work day got extended another hour (and with night flights we work even longer hours). Since we teach LOTS of sim and ground, we are only getting 250-300 hours of flight time per year (maybe we'll be up to 350 with the extra hours we are working), so many of these CFI's will be around for management to abuse for the next 3-5 years.
I really shouldn't complain because I have one of those coveted salaried CFI jobs. But when management advised us of the new policies, we inquired about how they could have us work all of the extra hours for the same pay and the answer was "We get resumes all of the time, we can always replace you if you don't like it." We figure that with the hours we are working it comes out to about $8.50/hour.
Maybe if I have a pessimistic view, but what I see happening is that instead of putting up with a year or two of crappy CFI pay and QOL, and then a rough first two years of low regional FO pay, I will just end up drudging through 4-5 years of it of awful CFI pay, followed by at least the same first two years of suck at the regionals.
10-26-2012, 08:15 AM
#27
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Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,405
Originally Posted by DontRelaxScope
From recurrent here at ExpressJet, if you meet the ATP mins, they will hire you. Not sure if their is a multi requirement on that as I have not looked it up in a long time.
Regionals require more than 100 ME only when times are tough and they just want to thin the stack of resumes they have to dig through. Higher ME time usually means part 135 or MEI experience, both of which are more skill-intensive than ASEL CFI work.
It seems like buying 100-ish ME hours and getting on with a large jet regional would pay for itself by the end of the second year.
10-26-2012, 11:43 AM
#28
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Joined APC: Jan 2009
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Originally Posted by Celeste
I'm already seeing this where I'm instructing. Our group of CFI's is relatively low time. The university is well aware of the fact that we aren't able to go anywhere because of new hiring minimums, so all of a sudden this semester we are required to work a lot of extra hours. We are now required to work 6 days per week minimum (if our students get behind because of wx we are supposed to come in on our day off but still have to show up on normal days regardless of weather, and our 'normal' work day got extended another hour (and with night flights we work even longer hours). Since we teach LOTS of sim and ground, we are only getting 250-300 hours of flight time per year (maybe we'll be up to 350 with the extra hours we are working), so many of these CFI's will be around for management to abuse for the next 3-5 years.
I really shouldn't complain because I have one of those coveted salaried CFI jobs. But when management advised us of the new policies, we inquired about how they could have us work all of the extra hours for the same pay and the answer was "We get resumes all of the time, we can always replace you if you don't like it." We figure that with the hours we are working it comes out to about $8.50/hour.
Maybe if I have a pessimistic view, but what I see happening is that instead of putting up with a year or two of crappy CFI pay and QOL, and then a rough first two years of low regional FO pay, I will just end up drudging through 4-5 years of it of awful CFI pay, followed by at least the same first two years of suck at the regionals.
I really shouldn't complain because I have one of those coveted salaried CFI jobs. But when management advised us of the new policies, we inquired about how they could have us work all of the extra hours for the same pay and the answer was "We get resumes all of the time, we can always replace you if you don't like it." We figure that with the hours we are working it comes out to about $8.50/hour.
Maybe if I have a pessimistic view, but what I see happening is that instead of putting up with a year or two of crappy CFI pay and QOL, and then a rough first two years of low regional FO pay, I will just end up drudging through 4-5 years of it of awful CFI pay, followed by at least the same first two years of suck at the regionals.
This hurts. Really hurts. I was fortunate enough to get out of flight instructing this year and into 135 after 13 months of CFI'n. I couldn't have done 13 more months at the school I was at with the hours/pay/QOL (similar to yours) much less 3-5 years.
With this ATP rule I fear that what you see happening at your school will happen in similar fashion at other schools.
If I were you I would be searching hard, trying to find another job where you can fly more. Getting a CFI job is just going to get harder and harder with each day that passes. We are already seeing it at places like ATP. Rumor has it they are backlogged with CFI's.
If the best answer for you to get past flight instructing is more hours. I would be trying my hardest to work at a place that had me flying the most hours humanly possible. I'm not sure where that place is or what it takes to get a job there but 250-300 hrs a year with that treatment would NOT cut it for me in this post ATP rule marketplace. I simply would HAVE to be flying more.
Good luck to all low time CFI's out there. As one who has recently gotten over the "hump" im looking back now thinking about the position you are in and its not pretty. Do what you have to do to get the time as quickly as possible and GET OUT!
10-26-2012, 03:15 PM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2011
Position: Volleyball Player
Posts: 3,982
Originally Posted by Celeste
I'm already seeing this where I'm instructing. Our group of CFI's is relatively low time. The university is well aware of the fact that we aren't able to go anywhere because of new hiring minimums, so all of a sudden this semester we are required to work a lot of extra hours. We are now required to work 6 days per week minimum (if our students get behind because of wx we are supposed to come in on our day off but still have to show up on normal days regardless of weather, and our 'normal' work day got extended another hour (and with night flights we work even longer hours). Since we teach LOTS of sim and ground, we are only getting 250-300 hours of flight time per year (maybe we'll be up to 350 with the extra hours we are working), so many of these CFI's will be around for management to abuse for the next 3-5 years.
I really shouldn't complain because I have one of those coveted salaried CFI jobs. But when management advised us of the new policies, we inquired about how they could have us work all of the extra hours for the same pay and the answer was "We get resumes all of the time, we can always replace you if you don't like it." We figure that with the hours we are working it comes out to about $8.50/hour.
Maybe if I have a pessimistic view, but what I see happening is that instead of putting up with a year or two of crappy CFI pay and QOL, and then a rough first two years of low regional FO pay, I will just end up drudging through 4-5 years of it of awful CFI pay, followed by at least the same first two years of suck at the regionals.
I really shouldn't complain because I have one of those coveted salaried CFI jobs. But when management advised us of the new policies, we inquired about how they could have us work all of the extra hours for the same pay and the answer was "We get resumes all of the time, we can always replace you if you don't like it." We figure that with the hours we are working it comes out to about $8.50/hour.
Maybe if I have a pessimistic view, but what I see happening is that instead of putting up with a year or two of crappy CFI pay and QOL, and then a rough first two years of low regional FO pay, I will just end up drudging through 4-5 years of it of awful CFI pay, followed by at least the same first two years of suck at the regionals.
11-02-2012, 10:10 AM
#30
New Hire
Joined APC: Apr 2012
Posts: 9
I could be completely wrong but here’s my thoughts.
Why is an airline career the only career in Aviation? Sure you go there to make a better salary. But when I went into this industry 12 years ago you could work at a GA field doing maintenance, survey work, instructing, etc. And you made a solid middle class living doing it. Also from what the older hands who got in this in the 80’s said they made a real good living at it. Now those same guys are breaking even or retired when they had to pay to work.
So what happened?
1) Costs went up: normal businesses run anywhere between a 8-15% profit margin. If you start eating into that profit margin it becomes less attractive to be in business. So when fuel and insurance skyrocket like it did. Your no longer making money. Also it drove out people who flying was their hobby. Because $55/HR for a cross country trip to Catalina island sounds like a great trip. Exact same airplane now is $135/HR it’s no longer cost feasible. So cannot pay for it then time to get a new hobby.
2) Regulation went wild: We all know about the TSA crap and the new ATP regulations. But what about the hidden regulations? Do you know how much regulations and bull**** are involved with running a business on an airport? I used to do Commercial Real Estate in Reno and every brokerage house had a “Will Not Work With” policy with the airport authority. They would do things like try to swipe your clients, if they couldn’t do that then they simply wouldn’t pay your commission, and all sorts of other bull****. They also created a master plan for the airports and ran out a lot of the maintenance shops on KRNO. How? They simply didn’t renew the lease. And if you didn’t like it and sued. They would think nothing of burning money on legal fees to fight you. Hell they got promoted because they were enforcing regulation. And for a lot of airports this is pretty common.
3) We stopped making airplanes and now were flying antiques: Imagine if Detroit announced that they weren’t making cars anymore but are going to service the cars on the road. We would just look at them like they went insane. But a major part of our industry got sued out of existence and we just took it. Also now the parts for the airplanes are drying up. Go down to Kragen and see how many alternators for a 1960 Cadillac they have. Not many, now try it for a 1960 Beechcraft because Good luck. When I was doing maintenance we always had a few aircraft sitting (often for months) just because we couldn’t find parts for it. And sometimes we had to make them ourselves.
At this point I’m willing to say there’s almost a conspiracy to shut down GA.
Thing is though this isn’t just OUR industry, it’s everywhere. Here is some more national trends were seeing.
1) The dollar is being seriously devalued.
2) Heaver government regulation in general.
3) If your 35 and under you’re going to have a lower quality of life than your parents did. You’re not going to have the same union jobs with benefits, retirement, raises, stability, etc.
4) Education is being dumbed down and vocational programs are being taken out of schools. So now you are having a stupider workforce.
5) Higher education is getting more expensive. When you get out of college you’re probably going to have around 30-50K in debt. Add flight training and your another 100K in. Which the first job you’re going to find is MAYBE going to pay you 30K a year before tax’s. And don’t expect raises for the next 5 years. What this means is you cannot service the debt. And you cannot get rid of it through bankruptcy. Which means if you fall behind their not going to work with you to pay it off.
What does this mean for us? Personally were going to need to be a lot more independent, creative and savvy in regards to work. As a nation were going to have a very interesting come to Jesus meeting when some of this **** starts maturing.
Why is an airline career the only career in Aviation? Sure you go there to make a better salary. But when I went into this industry 12 years ago you could work at a GA field doing maintenance, survey work, instructing, etc. And you made a solid middle class living doing it. Also from what the older hands who got in this in the 80’s said they made a real good living at it. Now those same guys are breaking even or retired when they had to pay to work.
So what happened?
1) Costs went up: normal businesses run anywhere between a 8-15% profit margin. If you start eating into that profit margin it becomes less attractive to be in business. So when fuel and insurance skyrocket like it did. Your no longer making money. Also it drove out people who flying was their hobby. Because $55/HR for a cross country trip to Catalina island sounds like a great trip. Exact same airplane now is $135/HR it’s no longer cost feasible. So cannot pay for it then time to get a new hobby.
2) Regulation went wild: We all know about the TSA crap and the new ATP regulations. But what about the hidden regulations? Do you know how much regulations and bull**** are involved with running a business on an airport? I used to do Commercial Real Estate in Reno and every brokerage house had a “Will Not Work With” policy with the airport authority. They would do things like try to swipe your clients, if they couldn’t do that then they simply wouldn’t pay your commission, and all sorts of other bull****. They also created a master plan for the airports and ran out a lot of the maintenance shops on KRNO. How? They simply didn’t renew the lease. And if you didn’t like it and sued. They would think nothing of burning money on legal fees to fight you. Hell they got promoted because they were enforcing regulation. And for a lot of airports this is pretty common.
3) We stopped making airplanes and now were flying antiques: Imagine if Detroit announced that they weren’t making cars anymore but are going to service the cars on the road. We would just look at them like they went insane. But a major part of our industry got sued out of existence and we just took it. Also now the parts for the airplanes are drying up. Go down to Kragen and see how many alternators for a 1960 Cadillac they have. Not many, now try it for a 1960 Beechcraft because Good luck. When I was doing maintenance we always had a few aircraft sitting (often for months) just because we couldn’t find parts for it. And sometimes we had to make them ourselves.
At this point I’m willing to say there’s almost a conspiracy to shut down GA.
Thing is though this isn’t just OUR industry, it’s everywhere. Here is some more national trends were seeing.
1) The dollar is being seriously devalued.
2) Heaver government regulation in general.
3) If your 35 and under you’re going to have a lower quality of life than your parents did. You’re not going to have the same union jobs with benefits, retirement, raises, stability, etc.
4) Education is being dumbed down and vocational programs are being taken out of schools. So now you are having a stupider workforce.
5) Higher education is getting more expensive. When you get out of college you’re probably going to have around 30-50K in debt. Add flight training and your another 100K in. Which the first job you’re going to find is MAYBE going to pay you 30K a year before tax’s. And don’t expect raises for the next 5 years. What this means is you cannot service the debt. And you cannot get rid of it through bankruptcy. Which means if you fall behind their not going to work with you to pay it off.
What does this mean for us? Personally were going to need to be a lot more independent, creative and savvy in regards to work. As a nation were going to have a very interesting come to Jesus meeting when some of this **** starts maturing.
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