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Old 12-18-2015, 09:13 AM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by Albief15 View Post
I have friends at both companies, and everyone feels pretty good about where are they. However, they have different vectors right now.

AA and the legacies have gone through a lot of consolidation, mergers, and angst over the last decade. What is emerging is an airline that has less competition than fifteen years ago and a better handle of costs. Is is furlough-proof? I don't think there is such a thing, but the business appears to be more stable and more profitable than its been in a long time.

SWA is betting on international growth. They may succeed beyond our wildest vision, but I am willing to be they have some growing pains. No catering is hardly a reason to skip an airline, but it does give you a glimpse into some of the challenges a LCC faces when it decides to start flying internationally. They are going to have to tweak a lot of the their SOPs and business model to be effective. Any upgrade predictions at SWA are based on growth of the new model. Conversely, upgrades at AA are based largely on retirements.

Another interesting consideration is regional feed. AA has preserved flow through agreements, and hires about 25% off the street for their classes, with returnees and flow throughs filling the rest of the seats. That doesn't help the guy on the street wanting to get hired, and its not my favorite model as a guy with an interview prep business. But...when I look at the disasters at Endeavor and Republic where they cancel flights due to lack of crews, and then look at what AA in doing at Envoy, I do have to go "hmmm.....I sort of see their AAdvantage here...." I think they are working hard to keep their feeders alive. Delta went the other way and is bringing a lot of the small jet stuff in house. Both are working the problem from different angles.

For all the guys who have read "Nuts" and worship the culture at SWA, remember that book was written in 1996. It may be SWA's history, but reading the future is a bit murkier. You hate to bet against a perpetual winner, but SWAPA just rejected a TA, and the labor relations there are starting to look a lot like every other airline.

My other suggestion (and I did this with FedEx and Jetblue back in 2001) is grab a couple bidpacks from both companies, and look at what you could expect to fly at various points in your career. Mentally compare the jobs and see what you think you'd like. In 2001, I thought I was comparing day flying at an exciting new company (JB) to night flying in a 727 (at FDX). After reviewing bidpack, what I realized was that as a commuter, my best trips were going to be red eye transcons out of JFK. Once I realized I was comparing nights to nights, then pay and benefits and stability were comparison points, and FDX won easily. The rub was the delay in upgrade time (8 months verses 7-8 years). The fact that a FDX FO made as much as a JB captain at the time was enough to make the decision fairly easy. You might find that even at a lower pay rate, flying a 767 to Rio or Santiago will make you more money and give you more time off. Then again, you might find living in domicile for SWA you'll do better as a senior FO than commuting to a legacy. Try a few combinations and see what you think you would be happy doing and break out the calculator.

The final point to consider is "will coming to work be fun or suck?" Only one guy knows the answer, and that's the guy in the mirror. My disclaimer is I never even applied to SWA, because I knew no matter how much I made or quickly I upgraded, I was not going to get what I wanted out a career there. My dream was Pan Am circa 1970, or Delta 1980...flying big jets around the globe. At FedEx I've flown the 727 in two seats domestic, and the MD-11 as an FO all over the world. I am now a 767 captain based in Hong Kong. I love the variety of my job, and the window to the world it creates, not just the dollars in the paycheck and the other benefits. So--if it were me--I'd be at AA hoping for MIA and flying all over the world, probably commuting from a nice place with good beaches and bays to enjoy my days off. But that's me... If you live in Phoenix or Vegas and love it there, SWA might be a perfect fit, but you are going to spending (I suspect) the majority of your career bouncing around American cities doing AM or PM flights. I have plenty of friends who are happy there, and that's enough. But I have enjoyed my time in Paris, Japan, India, Brazil, and dozens of other places the last dozen years, and I can say honestly my work has never been "boring", and I am excited to go and get to do what I do. As long as you are grinning when you pack, you probably are making a good decision....

If I could thumbs up this post I would. I've met Albie and will say he is great at what he does and has some great insight. He brings up great points.

I will say as a guy in the "least desirable" new hire AA job (E190 FO PHL) I absolutely love the job. My commute sucks and is always possibly a two legger, but at the end of the day even with the crummy rates after year 1 in the right seat of the 190 I have had a blast and am very grateful for the opportunity. I know that the 190 is temporary and that much growth hopefully lies around the corner.

After 11 months I am holding a commutable line, getting holidays off and I still smile like Albie said above when I pack. (Just don't whistle when the wife is around)

Anyways, best of luck to you with your decision and once you make it don't look back.

Someone once said, "You know why they make the window in front so much bigger than the rear view mirror? Because what's ahead of you is more important than what's behind"


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Old 12-18-2015, 11:32 AM
  #42  
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Originally Posted by StarHustler View Post
Yes, perhaps "easy" is not the correct verbiage to use, "less difficult" might be a better statement. In any event, 'at this point' (subject to change without prior notice, lol) I am heading to SW. Unfortunately, I will have to commute to either of them as I live in S. FL. and JB is now well over a year to get FLL and SW is over 3 for MCO. Higher pay at SW but quicker upgrade at JB (for the moment)...
I'm a south FL guy as well and recently started at Southwest. MCO is definitely senior, but when we had our lunch with Gary Kelley back in training the first question I asked him was do you see FLL being the next HOU? He said, "most definitely, FLL is their next big project". Of course, I take that with a grain of salt and there's no guarantee it will be a crew base, but I feel with the growth planned for South/Central America we should see some growth in MCO if not another base like FLL which should help FL guys like us. Best of luck with your decision!
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Old 12-18-2015, 12:01 PM
  #43  
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Originally Posted by FLY6584 View Post
I'm a south FL guy as well and recently started at Southwest. MCO is definitely senior, but when we had our lunch with Gary Kelley back in training the first question I asked him was do you see FLL being the next HOU? He said, "most definitely, FLL is their next big project". Of course, I take that with a grain of salt and there's no guarantee it will be a crew base, but I feel with the growth planned for South/Central America we should see some growth in MCO if not another base like FLL which should help FL guys like us. Best of luck with your decision!

Thanks man! Good information.
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Old 12-18-2015, 12:39 PM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by FLY6584 View Post
I'm a south FL guy as well and recently started at Southwest. MCO is definitely senior, but when we had our lunch with Gary Kelley back in training the first question I asked him was do you see FLL being the next HOU? He said, "most definitely, FLL is their next big project". Of course, I take that with a grain of salt and there's no guarantee it will be a crew base, but I feel with the growth planned for South/Central America we should see some growth in MCO if not another base like FLL which should help FL guys like us. Best of luck with your decision!

I would also bet on another crew base opening in the next year or so and FLL and Tampa are both ripe for that scenario. Both have tons of overnights and already have maintenance there. It would also relieve a lot of the pressure on the seniority in MCO and ATL.
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Old 12-18-2015, 01:00 PM
  #45  
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I am really afraid that we are too late to the party in FLL.

Both Spirit and JetBlue have impressive operations there. We can't compete with Spirit on price. We can't compete with jetBlue on product/service. Plus, jetBlue serves every piece of sand with a runway, we will be trying to build market share from scratch with depressed yields due to the competition.
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Old 12-18-2015, 01:43 PM
  #46  
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Originally Posted by say again View Post
Do a little research and decide for yourself. There's plenty of info available to make a decision instead of asking others where to go. I never understood that part...
Good grief!! He just asked a simple question

He is allowed to do that on here.
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Old 12-18-2015, 02:45 PM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by ZapBrannigan View Post
I am really afraid that we are too late to the party in FLL.

Both Spirit and JetBlue have impressive operations there. We can't compete with Spirit on price. We can't compete with jetBlue on product/service. Plus, jetBlue serves every piece of sand with a runway, we will be trying to build market share from scratch with depressed yields due to the competition.

That's not going to stop us from running the "late-hundred" out of there in droves and connecting pax from parts unknown that aren't served by either one of those airlines. I am sure both of those airlines are crushing it there, but neither one of them have a fraction of our domestic reach and ability to take someone in Lubbock and sell one ticket to get them to that same sandy beach on good old Southwestern, the airline they know and love. Besides, what we lack in customer service, amenities, and price we make up for in advertising and marketing, and that's all that really matters anyway, amirite? Transfarency bro!
We have carved a pretty good niche out at FLL and last time I went there for some epenadas and cafe con leche, which was about 3 days ago, the place was a zoo full of happy, sunburned, paying customers.
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Old 12-18-2015, 02:46 PM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by ZapBrannigan View Post
I am really afraid that we are too late to the party in FLL.

Both Spirit and JetBlue have impressive operations there. We can't compete with Spirit on price. We can't compete with jetBlue on product/service. Plus, jetBlue serves every piece of sand with a runway, we will be trying to build market share from scratch with depressed yields due to the competition.

Bingo. NK already has a sizeable operation there. Hard to walk into an airport and decide that three is a better fit.
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Old 12-18-2015, 02:49 PM
  #49  
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Great points, Albie. However, USAir and AA list integration still to be worked out and implemented. Despite the retirement numbers, wide bodies, etc., never underestimate AA's / APA's ability to screw up a good thing.
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Old 12-18-2015, 03:03 PM
  #50  
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Don't come to AA for the w/b flying. If you want to stay domestic and fly n/b's come to AA for the n/b flying! Why? You'll advance much quicker since so many guys jump to the w/b flying.

Based on current retirements and what guys are currently bidding, a guy hired today would project to the following n/b FO percentages in 10 yrs (55% of AA pilots reach Age 65 by then)(Another 20% in the following 5 years).

BOS - top 2%
DCA - 4%
DFW - 4%
LAX - 2%
LGA - 1%
MIA - 2%
ORD - 4%
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