Per the 10-Q, FDX had an operating margin of 5.7% for Q1’FY20.

Apparently, everyone else did worse. Read lower down where it gives FDX’s industry & sector ranking: #1.

Doesn’t matter. If I’m an investor I am pulling out of that sector.

This topic brings out lots of sensitivity in people. The numbers don't lie.

Im not saying FDX or UPS are bad companies. Im saying that neither are making their financial forecast. The cargo market is changing extremely fast. Not to mention one of the new players can rival gov level power.

My comment on UPS: I know they’re telling ppl in indoc that the airside is limited to 3%. Ground is another story. I think FDX telling Amazon to pound sand is a brave move. Why would you continue to fly for a competitor unless you simply couldn’t afford to bail.

I dont know what your seeing but Im looking out over a ramp backed by the largest consumer powerhouse in the world. Its a ramp thats growing extremely fast with no limits. Its also being filled with ACMI companies willing to do the job for less and for lower wages than brown or purple. On a personal note Im stuck. I wouldn’t go sit on the bottom of a prp or brn seniority list and Im not wanting to do pax. This is home for now.

UPS beat earnings projections last quarter, and had 30% growth in Next Day Air volume (note: Amazon is typically Second Day Air). They have repeatedly affirmed EPS guidance of $7.45-7.75.

Also, it is widely reported Amazon is 10% of total UPS volume and 5% of total revenue; who knows if that’s accurate or not, Atlanta isn’t telling.

UPS just announced a high nine-figure additional investment in SDF, and has roughly thirty more factory-new growth airframes to take delivery of in the next three years including fifteen 747-8s.

None of that sounds like the actions of a struggling logistics company...

What he said. I’m pretty sure just the -8 order equals more capacity than every jet Amazon has on order. Add in the steady trickle of new 76s and it appears that management sees a lot of money to be made. Only time will tell, but I’m betting that I’ll be happy with my choice when I retire with a pension and a fat B plan.

Point of order: Amazon has exactly zero “jets on order”.

🤷🏼*♂️ Potato 🥔

Lemme put that another way...

This company, which allegedly represents a clear and present danger to the duopoly, owns no aircraft and has no orders for new or used aircraft...but rather has short/medium term leases on airframes and selects CMI carriers to operate them on short/medium term contracts.

And some of those CMI carriers have major labor issues, making staffing and operating these airframes problematic.

Combine these Prime Air realities with widely the reported reliability issues of Amazon’s in-house last mile delivery and I believe the “threat” is exaggerated.

Aircraft orders don’t mean much and have been cancelled in the past.
I’m not saying the sky is falling. Just that I’ve seen cycles before. Cargo is hit before pax.