vroll1800

I think that you meant to say exacerbate there, Sport.

........... "they're leased from ATSG"........

Be aware that ATSG came into being by JH forming ATSG as a holding company (ala Frank Lorenzo/ Texas Air Corporation). JH subsequently siphoned off assets from ABX (including aircraft) to form various subsidiaries such as CAM. So the profits generated from ABX were utilized to do things such as dry lease former ABX aircraft to bottom feeding airlines, and buy other airlines, which facilitates the whipsaw game. Being caught in the middle of whipsaw game can be very exasperating. // End of grammar and history lesson.

Cujo665

None of which changes the fact that you all fighting each other all the time doesn't help.

nitefr8dog

Maybe....posting about something you have no firsthand knowledge of dosen't help anyone either.

skypilot35

Why the hell is ATSG stock plummeting? Seriously curious.

Frank717

Due to Omni. No fault of their own, just they mostly served the military troops, and Covid limited or almost stopped all movement outside of direct military craft. Huge hit to ATSG.

hercretired

Earnings out on Nov 4. COVID reportedly hurting Omni but Omni is the smallest fleet of the ATSG airlines. ATSG has in the neighborhood of 80 aircraft, I believe, with Omni at 15, or 19% of the fleet. So 81% of ATSG is not Omni.

How is this "Omni's fault."

The COVID argument should have boosted the package side, and it did somewhat, but the question is legit, why is the stock down. The stock has been in a decline all year long.

Just my views, I know some pilots at all three companies, all good guys. I would love to listen to earnings call or see what the corporate office side of the house says about this topic.

cheers

wjcandee

One factor may be that ATSG just issued Amazon some more warrants through 2025, which have the potential to dilute the share value if vested and exercised. Analysts may have not understood how ATSG accounts for these, which I think get booked as a marketing expense (but don't hold me to it). To me, this actually may be a good sign, because pursuant to the Amazon agreement with ATSG, they get warrants for things like leasing additional aircraft, extending lease lengths, and buying additional flying (e.g. for Amazon-owned aircraft).

wjcandee

ATSG was able to get some paycheck protection funds to cover some of the lost flying at Omni (and only at Omni). They were the only airline from whom the gov't hasn't demanded money back; after hammering everybody else, they deemed the Omni payment to be legit. So that offsets some of the loss. As I understand the last earnings call, they were able to repurpose some Omni assets to repatriation and other flights early in the pandemic, but expected that to slow. Omni also got a bump from the Afghanistan goatrope. Where Omni saw the most dramatic falloff, according to the last call, was in the commercial charter business (e.g. the track charters to Hawaii). The charterers had expected to resume service sooner than they did. I don't know the extent of the recovery in that sector for Omni; I guess the earnings call will give some color on the last few months and looking forward. Based on what the network carriers are seeing over the next few months, there's reason to be hopeful, but the package tourism business is different, so it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.

ATI got burnt a bit on the 757 Combi flying for the reasons you mention. One of the 4 is still basically mothballed. They had been going to some places that imposed serious restrictions and through some places that imposed serious restrictions (e.g. Singapore). It seems to have picked up, but I suspect it won't be back to the previous level for a while.

hercretired

I don't buy the "analysts don't understand ________ [insert company name]"

it doesn't matter. (yes they do understand it, it is not nuclear fusion. Planes, boxes, profits/losses)

The stock price is down. why ?

FlyAstarJets

Our Combi ops have indeed picked up with some added flying. But the Deep PAC flying is still restricted.