Amazon expansion thread
#112
You have to look at more than just a one week trend. I have been watching it for a couple years. I bought some shares and that is why I have an interest. My expectation was that after Amazon exercised its rights, the stock would go through the roof, but the opposite happened. The stock price rose briefly, but has steadily decreased in value.
#113
Line Holder
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 921
Likes: 3
From: Left, right & center
Yes, of course you have to look at more than one week. Your post seemed to imply that it was "plummeting" that day when, other than a few brief excursions in either direction, it's been going precisely nowhere for more than four years.
My expectation was that after Amazon exercised its rights, the stock would go through the roof, but the opposite happened. The stock price rose briefly, but has steadily decreased in value.
The mistake everyone makes is assigning way too much importance to Amazon. ATSG doesn't make more money just because Amazon became a minority shareholder.
The revenue from current leases and operating agreements is already priced in. Now that Amazon has started buying their own aircraft instead of additional leases from CAM, and given that they could have anyone operate them, there is nothing on which to base any expectation of a significant increase in revenue from Amazon until they assign more aircraft to one of the ATSG airlines. CMI contracts are not likely to generate as much excitement as aircraft leases because you can bet the margins are much lower.
I've been buying ATSG shares a bit at a time over the last year or so. I think there's reason to believe that there will be growth in the stock, but it's going to be incremental, not astronomical.
#114
Yes, of course you have to look at more than one week. Your post seemed to imply that it was "plummeting" that day when, other than a few brief excursions in either direction, it's been going precisely nowhere for more than four years.
The mistake everyone makes is assigning way too much importance to Amazon. ATSG doesn't make more money just because Amazon became a minority shareholder.
The revenue from current leases and operating agreements is already priced in. Now that Amazon has started buying their own aircraft instead of additional leases from CAM, and given that they could have anyone operate them, there is nothing on which to base any expectation of a significant increase in revenue from Amazon until they assign more aircraft to one of the ATSG airlines. CMI contracts are not likely to generate as much excitement as aircraft leases because you can bet the margins are much lower.
I've been buying ATSG shares a bit at a time over the last year or so. I think there's reason to believe that there will be growth in the stock, but it's going to be incremental, not astronomical.
The mistake everyone makes is assigning way too much importance to Amazon. ATSG doesn't make more money just because Amazon became a minority shareholder.
The revenue from current leases and operating agreements is already priced in. Now that Amazon has started buying their own aircraft instead of additional leases from CAM, and given that they could have anyone operate them, there is nothing on which to base any expectation of a significant increase in revenue from Amazon until they assign more aircraft to one of the ATSG airlines. CMI contracts are not likely to generate as much excitement as aircraft leases because you can bet the margins are much lower.
I've been buying ATSG shares a bit at a time over the last year or so. I think there's reason to believe that there will be growth in the stock, but it's going to be incremental, not astronomical.
meh, I’ve done better with Dodge and Shib. Once the stocks get over $10-$20 unless you’re doing options it becomes cost inefficient, and a poor use of time/value of capital. The same money into options returns a much better return. Spending $30 a share to earn $4 a share over a year isn’t appealing. Over 380% in Shib in one week. Tolerance, volatility, risk are issues, but if you study and learn it becomes second nature when to buy/sell. Yes, you could get in earlier, or out later and make more, but those fridge areas have the highest risk. Ride the wave, not the curl.
#115
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2021
Posts: 1,768
Likes: 28
"Incremental Growth"
ATSG in December 2020: $31
ATSG in October 2021: $25
incremental....the wrong way
they keep going down $5 a year they will be $0 in 2026
warrants, options, analysts who "don't understand them" aside...
ATSG in December 2020: $31
ATSG in October 2021: $25
incremental....the wrong way
they keep going down $5 a year they will be $0 in 2026
warrants, options, analysts who "don't understand them" aside...
#116
Line Holder
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 921
Likes: 3
From: Left, right & center
How can I possibly argue with that logic? You give that advice away for free?
#117
In a land of unicorns
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,073
Likes: 103
From: Whale FO
So every airline in existence is going out of business soon. Thanks for the heads up.
#118
[QUOTE=Reactivity;3315914]
The mistake everyone makes is assigning way too much importance to Amazon. ATSG doesn't make more money just because Amazon became a minority shareholder.
Agreed and guilty of it.
The mistake everyone makes is assigning way too much importance to Amazon. ATSG doesn't make more money just because Amazon became a minority shareholder.
Agreed and guilty of it.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post



