Gunter

Furlough a hollow threat?

No, it's not. Just because FedEx has dealt with slight overmanning over the years does not mean the sudden significant overmanning will be allowed.

You really can't be exact here as small changes are inevitable. But the trends are certain. The 727 SO seat has 100 more on the seniority list than the FO seat. You can easily get rid of the 50 bottom guys before anything else is considered (50 of the most senior SO's will probably upgrade to FO in the near future). You have to have a little excess in the SO seat to deal with change, but not 100. Don't even mention the overmanning in the 3 seats over and above that. If you were to raise the BLG 3 to 5 hrs and reduce the excess reserve lines, you could easily get rid of 30 more per seat. CAs could just be left in place, so call it 60 total. There are 40 of the most recent 200 hires in the FO seat, so it is not out of the realm of possibility to furlough the bottom 100-200 guys. This does not consider the overmanning in other aircraft right now. There is no place for the 727 FOs and 727 SOs to go, other than the over 60 guys, since overmanning exists in many seats fleet wide. I believe the kicker is the realization that hiring is not needed for 3 years. That makes a furlough the only way to relieve this overmanning for the next few YEARS. Very enticing for the company. No training events generated by pulling the trigger for the next 3 years.

Don't believe the 3 year estimate? About 5 Airbus temporarily taken out of service waiting or new engines. Accelerated DC10 conversion schedule. 757 program probably delayed. 727 drawdown probably continuing. 150 “newhires” on the property as of Dec 13th. 100-200 retirements per year canceled for the next 2-3 years. I personally think all the seats from new Airbus and MD11s coming are already spoken for by guys on the DC10 and in the back of the Boeing. The overage in the Boeing CA and FO seats will effectively will fill domestic 757 slots.

I believe the no hiring for 3 yrs estimate. Guys going out on medicals and the 777 bid can't overcome the larger trend. We should have been slightly undermanned for the 3 to 2 seat conversion years but instead we are overmanned. It is unusual for the company to do this sort of thing, correct me if I am wrong, so few believed it was happening. But now here we are.

The question now is whether the union and the company will leave the overmanning in place and reduce BLG or attempt to “fix it" with a furlough.


I'm scratching my head why the company is talking about putting newhires into FDA's if a furlough is around the corner. This part does not fit. But the hiring until we are significantly overmannd dosen't fit either. I also have trouble believing the company didn't see this coming. I have too many unanswered questions to have a decent guess on where all this is going.

AerisArmis

[quote=Gunter;288744]Furlough a hollow threat?

[No, it's not. Just because FedEx has dealt with slight overmanning over the years does not mean the sudden significant overmanning will be allowed.]

How about letting guys 55 to 60 go early with no penalty? Or....a significantly reduced penalty like 1% per year vice 3%. There just might be some guys with 20-25 years who would rather be on a trout stream than sleep on a futon on the floor. Kinda Foxhunter in Bizarro World, no? Would free up some seats for DWs biggest fans.

USNFDX

1. A pilot shall have the following minimum bid period guarantee, except as provided in Section 4.A.2. through A.5.:
   1. 68 CH in a 4-week bid period.
   2. 85 CH in a 5-week bid period.
2. Change to Minimum Bid Period Guarantee
   1. A pilot's minimum bid period guarantee shall be reduced by the net number of CH by which the pilot's actual credit hour compensation for a bid period is less than his BLG/RLG as a result of activities being dropped from his awarded line with reduced pay or without pay.
      
      Examples of reduced pay include: trips dropped and trip traded down to a lesser value.
      Examples of trips dropped without pay include: pilot requested drops, phase-in conflict, transition to inactive pay status, emergency drop and disciplinary suspension.
   2. The minimum bid period guarantee shall be reduced to a minimum of 48/60 CH before any pilot is furloughed. At least a full bid period must follow the announcement of this action. This provision shall only be used to prevent or delay a furlough.
      

Unless the company decides to blow off the CBA or we negotiate a side letter. There is no way the company can reduce the BLG 30%.

Gunter

I agree. I'm thinking the union is meeting with management right now. If not, I expect it after the announcement this week.


More than at any other time the last 2 years, I hope our union leadership "Does the right thing"

They did the over 60 guy right. Now it's time to do the junior guy right.

MaxKts

Gunter, They still have to fill the 50 or so FDA seats. Can't hire into those and then furlough guys that have been here longer. Lets wait and see what the "new" bid will look like.

Gunter

Exactly. I'm actually hoping we don't fill the FDAs so we can get some newhires there to protect the bottom of the SO list.

Born2Fly

I'm sure the over 60 guys will jump at any opportunity to get into a window seat (CA/FO), which will help alleviate some of the overmanning situation on the SO panel.

MAWK90

How about getting rid of Carryover! Create a two tiered line structure, kinda like RA and RB. BLG-A would cover regular months, BLG-B would start sometime around the 25th of the month and cover the carryover.

If you lower my RLG to 48 and keep C/O for the senior guys, that ain't gonna fly for me.

There better be some creative ideas at the roundtable or this 20 yr ALPA vet will leave his pin at home.

MAWK90

And lets not forget, the 777F is coming. There HAS TO BE training events in the next year and a half to staff that and it will be all the senior 60+ guys.

Gunter

If you overman the Airbus, 757 and MD11 CA and FO seats with excessed folks from the DC10 (like it appears we are doing), then you have your 777 awardees without any secondaries.

No, I didn't forget about the 777. It's impact will much smaller than previously thought when balanced against our excess of pilots.