FDX - Some Hard Excess Data to Chew On
After perusing the seat seniority data provided in the 08-02 posting, I realized a lot of the important seat seniority information is really missing from the chart provided when you are talking about an "excess" bid vs the std "vacancy" bid.
Thus, after reveiwing the May bidpack seniority lists, and the FDA Training slots on the current Training Letter, I uncovered the following data. It's quite clear there are plenty of folks at the top who have a lot of "seat choices" if they elect to bid to relieve the excess. Anyway, here's my analysis of the numbers (...please realize I didn't attempt to match this up with folks who are in training, Flexs, LCAs or those over Age 65 who can't bid a window seat...and didn't consider the fact that everyone can bid to fill the published vacancy positions for MEM 757 Capt/FO and HKG A300/FO) ...hopefully, it still proves useful (encouraging) to some that are worried about getting excessed "off the bottom". First --- the relevant seat seniority #s not published in the posting. Domicile - Equipment - Seat - Total # In Seat / Low Seniority MEM - A300 - Capt - 605 / 2805 MEM - A300 - FO - 549 / 4402 MEM - MD 11 - Capt - 646 / 2533 MEM - MD 11 - FO - 668 / 4270 ANC - MD11 - Capt - 153 / 2778 ANC - MD11 - FO - 226 / 4513 LAX - MD11 - Capt - 78 / 2028 LAX - MD11 - FO - 113 / 4305 HKG - A300 - Capt - 49 / 4009 HKG - A300 - FO - 14 / 4753 MEM - 757 - Capt - 35 / 1562 MEM - 757 - FO - 20 /2995 Next, the "cutoff seniority" required in each seat position to hold a particular seat at 100% in the non-excessed jets: MEM - 727 - Captains (Excess Target = 30 of 334 total) MEM - 757 - Capt = Top 96 Capts LAX - MD11 Capt = Top 149 Capts MEM - MD11 Capt = Top 197 Capts ANC - MD11 Capt = Top 219 Capts MEM - A300 Capt = Top 223 Capts HKG - A300 Capt = All 334 Capts MEM - 727 - First Officers (Excess Target = 50 of 293 total ) MEM - 757 - Capt = Top 9 FOs LAX - MD11 - Capt = Top 22 FOs MEM - MD11 - Capt = Top 42 FOs ANC - MD11 - Capt = Top 59 FOs MEM - A300 - Capt = Top 60 FOs MEM - 757 - FO = Top 66 FOs MEM - 727 - Capt = Top 95 FOs HKG - A300 - Capt = Top 161 FOs MEM - MD11 - FO = Top 190 FOs LAX - MD11 - FO = Top 197 FOs MEM - A300 - FO = Top 221 FOs ANC - MD11 - FO = Top 243 FOs HKG - A300 - FO = All 293 FOs MEM - 727 - Second Officers (Excess Target = 50 of 363 total) MEM - 757 - Capt = Top 18 SOs LAX - MD11 - Capt = Top 27 SOs MEM - MD11 - Capt = Top 50 SOs ANC - MD11 - Capt = Top 65 SOs MEM - A300 - Capt = Top 67 SOs MEM - 757 - FO = Top 78 SOs MEM - 727 - Capt = Top 87 SOs HKG - A300 - Capt = Top 137 SOs MEM - MD11 - FO = Top 161 SOs LAX - MD11 - FO = Top 162 SOs MEM - A300 - FO = Top 169 SOs ANC - MD11 - FO = Top 173 SOs MEM - 727 - FO = Top 186 SOs HKG - A300 - FO = Top 350 SOs (...interesting side note --- there appears to be 105 727 Second Officers currently on passover pay due to approximately 50 727 First Officer who were trained "out-of-seniority order" upon initial hiring since Aug 06...all of these SOs are not necessarily senior to ALL of these 50 FOs, and this is where it could get interesting if the FO "excess" doesn't come "out of the top", given those SOs on passover pay MUST keep 727 FO on their bid to keep their passover pay.) MEM - DC10 - Captains (Excess Target = 104 of 119 total) LAX - MD11 - Capt = Top 105 Capts MEM - MD11 - Capt = Top 112 Capts All other Capt positions = All 119 Capts MEM - DC10 - First Officers (Excess Target = 88 of 97 total) MEM - 757 - Capt = Top 8 FOs LAX - MD11 - Capt = Top 14 FOs MEM - MD11 - Capt = Top 26 FOs MEM - A300 -Capt = Top 32 FOs ANC - MD11 - Capt = Top 32 FOs MEM - 757 - FO = Top 35 FOs MEM - 727 - Capt = Top 46 FOs HKG - A300 - Capt = Top 72 FOs MEM - MD11 - FO = Top 86 FOs LAX - MD11 - FO = Top 87 FOs All other FO positions = All 97 FOs MEM - DC10 - Second Officers (Excess Target = 55 of 116 total) MEM - 757 - Capt = Top 86 LAX - MD11 - Capt = Top 91 MEM - MD11 - Capt = Top 106 MEM - A300 - Capt = Top 109 ANC - MD11 - Capt = Top 109 MEM - 727 - Capt = Top 110 MEM - 757 - FO = Top 111 HKG - A300 - Capt = All 116 All other FO positions = All 116 (Repeat Disclaimer - I have not taken into account those guys who already bid to leave their seat via a previous vacancy or excess bid...and have no idea how many are over Age 65 and therefore only eligible to go to the back of the Boeing). OK, OK...I'll be the first to say it --- "I can't believe I just typed all that in!":eek::p:D |
Now you know why JL had it out for folks who never upgrade.
I've heard a few folks say don't worry, the more senior guys will voluntarily excess up. Why should we believe these senior bubbas are going to do that? They haven't done it the last 2 vacancy bids. I'll believe it when I see it. I still think there is a chance 20-30 727 FO's get pushed down to SO. Maybe more. But, of course, maybe none. |
If everything goes right the widebody seats will get fuller.
BTW, do you know how many DC10 and 727 SOs are 64 or older right now?? That is a positive for the excess bid. |
Originally Posted by Gunter
(Post 369722)
If everything goes right the widebody seats will get fuller.
BTW, do you know how many DC10 and 727 SOs are 64 or older right now?? That is a positive for the excess bid. Perhaps someone with access via the company or the union can provide that # --- it shouldn't be some big secret. ...and those guys being over 64 isn't a "positive" for those who will still be stuck in the back of the Boeing. They may see a bunch of 60-63 yr olds moving out --- and then a bunch of 64+ guys moving right back in on top of them.:( |
Originally Posted by DLax85
(Post 369730)
...and those guys being over 64 isn't a "positive" for those who will still be stuck in the back of the Boeing.
The positive would be keeping passover pay and seeing some midlevel 727 FOs and SOs moving up. I'm all over the board on this one. It all depends on what those old guys end up doing. Some may go SO to SO or even retire. |
Besides the actions of the purple prunes the more senior under 60 guys in each seat will also make a huge difference. If they move up, all is well. If they all say no thanks, I see involuntary excesses.
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Originally Posted by Gunter
(Post 369733)
... It all depends on what those old guys end up doing. Some may go SO to SO or even retire.
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There were a lot of senior over 60 guys who could not hold a window seat (except for the FDA's) in the last bid because there were no positions available. Now those s/o's or f/o's can move up in any airplane (with the exception of FDA's) as long as their seniority can hold it, regardless of open seats, if they get excessed or bid to relieve excess. My guess is that the bid to relieve excess in the 72 will go fairly senior.
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If someone were to really care about finding out the ages of the over 60 crowd, all that person would have to do would be to get the past 5 years worth of FDX ALPA calendars, and note the birthdays of guys "retiring". Then cross reference with a VIPS lookup to see if that person is actually still flying. Anyway, I think that would work, but in fairness, I don't remember how far back they started putting retirements in that calendar. I don't think you'll get that information from either the company or the union.
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What we need is a list of over-60 flight engineers, listed by seniority, with the date each one turns 64.
Then those guys themselves can see where they stand. If you're 62, and 150 numbers from the last guy to get a left seat, you may get the idea that you will not make it to the left seat in time to make much of a difference. Combine that with a trip to 727 panel school and another three years of hubturning domestically, retirement may be more attractive. |
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