Did the James Joyce just install wireless?

 

Hither and thither, to and fro....

 

Stop, you're killing me. You've been here how long?

One out of three ain't bad I guess.

 

It sounds that all you care about is loosing your SIBA flying. The only reason why I think I wouldn´t bid CDG is because its underfunded, the EURO is forecasted to become stronger and we don´t get paid in EUROS, so, I am not ready to loose 25% of my salary just because I love to hang out at "Le tree maillot" and eat croissants. Be realistic, all you care about is your beer belly. That post you wrote was dizzying, my negotiation committee speaks for me, not you.

 

Overmanning is indeed getting worse this year....

Don't forget about the DC-10 bubbas waiting for training. I wonder how much their reintroduction to a bid pack will impact the line averages?

 

Given that 09-04 is coming out soon and according to PC we may see 09-05 and or 09-06 in Sep-Nov, doesn't seem like it will be awhile before there's a concrete answer to that question? At this point we still don't even know how aggressively they will schedule training on 09-03 given that those affected by it could again be impacted by 09-04 and beyond.

 

Perhaps. But I heard most DC-10 folks are going to training this year.

I predict the CDG domicile will make manning worse with the elimination of most, if not all, SIBA. The filling of HKG will do the same.

One of the next bids will likely, IMHO, have another excess off the Bus.

With the 777 coming online we will very temporarily have a need for more folks. Then, after ultra long range ops of the 777 get going, the number of MD-11 lines will shrink.

727 folks going to 757 will not help. We all know what 3 to 2 man cockpit conversion does to manning.

I see no movement upwards, except those going to CDG or 777, for 1-2 years.


As a side note -- How many 777s will be needed, doing ultra long haul, to replace MD11s on long, 2 leg international routes now? 90% of currently operating MD11s? 80%? What's that going to do to manning?

 

I haven't really looked at it, but I don't doubt it. Of course if they like the fact that they're getting paid without an airplane to fly, they may start playing musical chairs on subsequent bids to delay their training.

Absolutely, but when all of that will take effect will depend on how much training is required.

Perhaps. That seems highly dependent on whether or not they decide to retire the rest of the A310-200's. O saying he thinks that it will happen, doesn't make it so. The company has elected to wait and see on this which no matter how bleak things look now, necessarily implies that they are willing to reconsider that based on future economic info.

No it doesn't, but while the crew force has all but decided that the 757 is ultimately going to be a quick and fast 727 replacement, the company doesn't seem to be playing it that way. Fuel is at a reasonable enough level for them and they don't seem to be in a huge rush to retire it. The 2014 plan may ultimately hold up, which means the negative effect will occur over a long period of time.


I agree that there won't be movement outside of what you described and some 'paper' movement as people on the periphery of the recent excesses either retain their previous seats or end up training on the 757 instead of the 727.

Who knows, seems to early to guess to me. Doesn't it seem like the eventual shape of the global recovery will largely control that? FWIW, to me it looks like the company is relatively satisfied that the economy has bottomed out and is therefore comfortable keeping the excess pilots because of the savings of 4.a.2.b, the training float required to reorder the staffing where they want it isn't leaving freight on the ramp like it has in previous years, and the knowledge that contract negotiations will be coming soon with possibility of an increase in retirements among other things. In fact, from what I've heard they feel that way even if they 'only' get to keep 4.a.2.b through the end of the year.

 

Nice, positive spin on it all.

I'm too stuck in my negativity to go so far as to call a bottom. But I recognize I will be surprised by any and all good news.

Until the economy does pick up, additional 757s are taking someone's flying. If not the 727s then Airbus.

The 757 recently took GTF in May as another gets on the line. It seems to be flying a decidedly 727 schedule.

 

I don't know that I'm positive about it all because it's obviously rough times, but the company doesn't seem all that interested in furloughs and is in fact talking about future vacancy bids. If they were, I'd be much more pessimistic than I presently am, although like you said I expect no appreciable movement for the next few years as well. It's still quite ugly, but if you've been down the furlough road before than you know this climate is decidedly different.