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Old 02-14-2010, 09:58 PM
  #241  
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Originally Posted by Buck92
Serious question .... who's saying that?! Unless the economy recollapses, I'd be really surprised if 100 actually hit the street. I'd say it's even money they furlough the 54 for a few months, leverage the RIF bid to their advantage then call back for a small loss for redundant training events (which they supposedly don't cost into thier business model). Where's the 535 for 5 years thing coming from? (I'm in the first group out the door BTW).
The numbers came from our union Check the IPA website for the information that was passed at a meeting in ANC the other day.

I dont know where they got the data. Does not look good. Of course I hope I am wrong and no one hits the street, but based on what was presented we could be minus 500+ pilots with furloughs and retirements. With only 2000 pilots remaining I guess you would have to be a 93 hire to keep your Captain seat. That would suck. This RIF stuff is gonna be UGLY!

Sorry to hear you are part of the first group. I am in the 300 as well. The union is suppose to have some jobs and info stuff posted soon.
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Old 02-14-2010, 10:13 PM
  #242  
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Originally Posted by JustUnderPar
The numbers came from our union Check the IPA website for the information that was passed at a meeting in ANC the other day.

I dont know where they got the data. Does not look good. Of course I hope I am wrong and no one hits the street, but based on what was presented we could be minus 500+ pilots with furloughs and retirements. With only 2000 pilots remaining I guess you would have to be a 93 hire to keep your Captain seat. That would suck. This RIF stuff is gonna be UGLY!

Sorry to hear you are part of the first group. I am in the 300 as well. The union is suppose to have some jobs and info stuff posted soon.
Wow - if that turns out to be true, then I agree with your previous post: there will NOT be much to come back to. FrontSeat may have the right idea about finding a new gig. Though I normally avoid public math: it would probably take at least until the end of 2011 (or longer) to get all 500 out the door. Assuming a 2 yr furlough (minimum), how many per year will they reasonably call back with max capacity at the training centers - maybe 150? That means it could be 2016 or later before everyone is back on property again. It seems difficult to comprehend, but theoretically not impossible I guess...
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Old 02-14-2010, 11:30 PM
  #243  
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Originally Posted by Buck92
Wow - if that turns out to be true, then I agree with your previous post: there will NOT be much to come back to. FrontSeat may have the right idea about finding a new gig. Though I normally avoid public math: it would probably take at least until the end of 2011 (or longer) to get all 500 out the door. Assuming a 2 yr furlough (minimum), how many per year will they reasonably call back with max capacity at the training centers - maybe 150? That means it could be 2016 or later before everyone is back on property again. It seems difficult to comprehend, but theoretically not impossible I guess...
just spoke to our Eb and said ups will not likely be making service with 300 less pilots on the property. With 300 less bodies on the property everything has to go smooth and by the plan, Any little bump on the road will equal serious service failures. Hey realisticly ups can do away with 300 or more if the remaining people continue past practice but everything has come to a complete stop. A friend at marketing department in fedex are loving this and taking customers from big brown on a daily basis, Watch thier first Q report or even better thier 2nd and see for yourself. He told me something that stayed with me, YOU CAN'T ALWAYS SHRINK YOURSELF TO PROFIBILITY AND PROSPER. Well thats the way we are heading atleast for now.
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Old 02-15-2010, 03:22 AM
  #244  
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Originally Posted by brownie
just spoke to our Eb and said ups will not likely be making service with 300 less pilots on the property. With 300 less bodies on the property everything has to go smooth and by the plan, Any little bump on the road will equal serious service failures. Hey realisticly ups can do away with 300 or more if the remaining people continue past practice but everything has come to a complete stop. A friend at marketing department in fedex are loving this and taking customers from big brown on a daily basis, Watch thier first Q report or even better thier 2nd and see for yourself. He told me something that stayed with me, YOU CAN'T ALWAYS SHRINK YOURSELF TO PROFIBILITY AND PROSPER. Well thats the way we are heading atleast for now.
Our EB have the business acumen of every other novice on here and the B&G. Nothing personal, but they just don't have the education, experience, or corporate understanding to offer worthwhile forecasts IMO.
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Old 02-15-2010, 05:06 AM
  #245  
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Originally Posted by JustUnderPar
The numbers came from our union Check the IPA website for the information that was passed at a meeting in ANC the other day.
Not doubting you, but where on the IPA website did you find this? I don't see anything like this.
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Old 02-15-2010, 05:39 AM
  #246  
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Originally Posted by JustUnderPar
UPS is going to furlough at least 300 pilot. Some say more (475-535). This is going to last till 2015.
We have about 250-300 MANDATORY retirements by then.

So are they telling me that UPS has lost that much market share that they need to shrink the airline by 500-600 pilots.

Is there gonna be anything left to come back to?

Serious question.....
Well, if they get rid of 500-600 pilots, I would start looking for another job if I were left in the remaining 2000.
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Old 02-15-2010, 06:19 AM
  #247  
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Originally Posted by 1800 RVR
Not doubting you, but where on the IPA website did you find this? I don't see anything like this.

Meeting was Saturday. Should be something by the end of the week. You saw A.M. Slides right? Those are part of the number projections.
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Old 02-15-2010, 06:20 AM
  #248  
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Originally Posted by brownie
just spoke to our Eb and said ups will not likely be making service with 300 less pilots on the property. With 300 less bodies on the property everything has to go smooth and by the plan, Any little bump on the road will equal serious service failures. Hey realisticly ups can do away with 300 or more if the remaining people continue past practice but everything has come to a complete stop. A friend at marketing department in fedex are loving this and taking customers from big brown on a daily basis, Watch thier first Q report or even better thier 2nd and see for yourself. He told me something that stayed with me, YOU CAN'T ALWAYS SHRINK YOURSELF TO PROFIBILITY AND PROSPER. Well thats the way we are heading atleast for now.

Spot on Brownie!
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Old 02-15-2010, 06:23 AM
  #249  
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Originally Posted by L'il J.Seinfeld
Our EB have the business acumen of every other novice on here and the B&G. Nothing personal, but they just don't have the education, experience, or corporate understanding to offer worthwhile forecasts IMO.
That has nothing to do with it. The EB runs the UNION who represents the IPA. There are some guys here that are very qualified to run forecasting models. Even if I did not want to hear what they had to say.....it was hard to swallow.

You in the 300?
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Old 02-15-2010, 06:29 AM
  #250  
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I know people on the EB as well. The ONLY number I have heard is at a bare minimum, UPS will need 18% less crews than they did at the highest level on the seniority list. This number was about 500, but did not take into account ANY retirements. This was also the number that was used when all the new 767's were on property
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