In recent postings, Flight Mgmt states the average age of FDX pilots has only increased from 49 yrs old to 50 yrs old since 2010, however, comparing the “averages” of two different distributions does not necessarily make them equivalent.

Note: The following distributions all have the same average of 5, but are vastly different.

5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5

0,0,0,0,0,10,10,10,10,10

0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10


Since 2008, there have been approximately 971 pilots eligible for retirement and only about 628 have retired --- so in that portion of the pilot distribution alone (Age 60-65), we have seen a net increase of approximately 343 pilots.

Additionally, since April 2008 we have only hired about 304 “new” (presumably younger) pilots --- meaning that the remaining 4,136 pilots (88%) on property are all 5 years older

Bottom line --- instead of comparing the overall “average” age of the crew force, I think it would be more enlightening to compare the percentage of the crew force in each age range --- 60-65, 55-60, 50-55, 45-50, etc

My guess --- this would reveal a greater “aging of the crew force", especially in those year groups (50+) where pilots, and the general population, tend to have an increase in medical issues.

 

DLax,

There you go again, using "common sense" (and logic?) to view a problem from a standpoint that doesn't use $$ as it's primary consideration.

You Sir ... will never be asked to be a member of the Brother-in-Law Management Club (me either for that matter!)

 

I know that I have aged 15 yrs in the last 4 yrs. I guess that is Algebra.

 

There you go bringing in that PhD stuff that our management hates. Never mind that some of us had that "PhD stuff" in high school...

 

The problem is, mgmt hopes we read all their drivel at 0200 during our 5th hub turn and that we can't figure out that their statements are just nonsense.

 

Was that in the FOM, Flight Manual, Flight Manual Bulletin, or FCIF? I read those sources of regulatory information as required, but I try to avoid the distraction of Company propoganda when I endeavor to operate an aerospace vehicle. I think I'm safer that way.



What is it they say about statistics? There are lies, damn lies, and statistics? You can prove anything with statistics?

Average? Mean? Median? Mode? I can narrate vastly different stories with different numbers commonly referred to as average. It's a common misperception that, by definition, half of any population is below average.

Here's the only statistic I'm concerned with -- the number of times Management has willfully, knowlingly, and intentionally violated the Contract by asking for a "Doctor's note" when they have no legal right to do so.

The CBA is very specific on this subject. There are exactly 3 times when The Company may require a pilot to provide a written statement from the pilot's physician explaining his ability to perform his assigned duties because of illness or injury. In reverse order (from how they are listed in the CBA):

• When the pilot has requested to use his Disability Sick Account. DSA is an earned benefit -- deferred compensation, if you will -- but we have to get permission to use it.

• Whe the pilot's absence from duty occurred within 24 hours of the beginning or end of his/her vacation period or a "holiday" (Easter, Memorial Day, Independence Day, Labor Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas Eve, New Year's Eve, or New Year's Day)

• (The first two were abbreviated or paraphrased -- here I quote) "The Company has a good faith, and objective reason to question a pilot's use or attempted use of sick leave"

A request for a Doctor's note outside of those 3 criteria is a violation of our contractual rights.

If I use sick leave that's not on those holidays, vacation, or DSA, and The Company asks me for a note, I will first ask them to tell me the "good faith, and objective reason" they're using to question my use of sick leave.

Statistics? How many times has management abrogated our rights by ignoring this important negotiated feature of our CBA?



Smokescreen. I enjoy playing with numbers, did well in Statistics, and could talk about this stuff all day. What effect did retiring the B-727 have on our numbers? Your examples are fairly uniform distribuitons of number with the same means, but what about distributions which are biased one direction or another? What happens when you suddenly lose all the over-70 engineers?

What happens to human behavior when you impose an age limit that was never there before? Whereas before a pilot might protect some sick leave in case he needed it at age 66 or 69 or 73, now he knows he has to use it or lose it before 65.

Fun discussions, but all distraction.

Long story short -- statistics will tell a much more complicated story that management wants us to hear, and the story is completely irrelevant. The most important number here is 14.A.6. -- the CBA pragraph which protects your negotiated right to use sick leave without being harrassed.






.

 

"...The most important number here is 14.A.6. -- the CBA pragraph which protects your negotiated right to use sick leave without being harassed"

Well said Tony --- we are in violent agreement!

 

Clearly seeing the bigger picture with respect to management using the sick leave, parking lot etc issues as distractions and intimidation in contract talks.

However, DLax highlights a significant point. In a culture of honesty & integrity (supposedly espoused on posters), it's hard to sit back and accept "assertions" that just don't make sense to those with even a topical quantitative methods knowledge.

Mr. McDonald makes some assertions in his missive that may not stand up to intellectual rigor, that may or may not use mathematically correct process and methodologies that are used in any probabilistic theory when assigning correlation within a statistically acceptable variance, with confidence factors that fit an accepted norm for causation.

After reviewing my daughter's systems engineering probabilistic operations research manual, and recalling college days of the complexity of quantitative methodologies in Systems engineering and operations research, I seriously doubt that flight ops has that expertise. Many of us with a few statistics courses and a position of authority backed by driven outcome could "assert" that statistics show ......

Based on the companies history on willful CBA violation, and creative interpretation, I wouldn't trust their data or conclusions unless all the data and methodologies used to arrive at said conclusion were presented to ALPA and reviewed by cognizant statistical authorities.

 

That info is available in the FDX page on this site. They list the number of retirements per year. I did some quick excel calcs and there are 3000 pilots age 50 and over, 1500 pilots less than age 50. For those less than age 50 I used an age 43 to produce a weighted average. Bottom line is the average age of an FDX pilot is 51.96 years. Ceteris paribus, FDX will need to replace 67% their pilots in the next 15 years.

Rets #Ret Current Age Weighted Ages
2013 - 105 105 65 6825
2014 - 93 93 64 5952
2015 - 144 144 63 9072
2016 - 149 149 62 9238
2017 - 186 186 61 11346
2018 - 184 184 60 11040
2019 - 150 150 59 8850
2020 - 180 180 58 10440
2021 - 208 208 57 11856
2022 - 211 211 56 11816
2023 - 223 223 55 12265
2024 - 229 229 54 12366
2025 - 218 218 53 11554
2026 - 242 242 52 12584
2027 - 208 208 51 10608
2028 - 198 198 50 9900

<age 50 1512 43 65016

Total 4440 230728 Avg Age 51.96577

 

TonyC, the good faith reason in my sick call was "calling in sick before rdays" as was JE referenced in the grievance!

So as referred to earlier in another thread, I guess the best strategy is to roll the dice when sick on reserve and wait for an assignment and then call in sick if unable to fly.. Guess they will have to start adding more stbys for those late sick calls.