Gunter

You made too many assumptions and your math wasn't actually "O.K." because of it. Back seat of the DC-10 is almost all over 60 dudes (except for 40). Back seat of 727 has over 60 dudes and is getting 2-3 more every month.

FACTS: UPS and FedEx are hiring to cover retirements and medicals. Then there is additional growth the next couple of years. Hiring will epp and flow due to bids and peak. Expect 150-300 yr. Right now, time to widebody FO at FedEx is 12-24 months. Your mileage may vary.

All calculations will be off if pilots fly past 60....

FedEx is looking to expand their European flying. That is where the 757's are eventually headed. I would be surprised to see all or even most of the 727s leave. Maybe China flying will continue to increase after the next couple of years too. Domestic flying is flat. Yeah growth will slow sometime. May even go negative. AND that corporate gig could go away if the company has a downturn or the VIP has a stroke, divorce, retires to Fiji or otherwise decides to do something else with the cash. You worry about the sky falling too?

When you learn the difference between On-Demand Cargo, Wet Lease and Express freight let us know. Until then you will be frightened by the 747's at all the other companies. Until FedEx goes BK, the scope will take care of it.


BTW, Don't leave the corporate gig. Can't replace the income. Sounds like a dream job and great way of life.

But if you never want to worry about brushing off your resume again, go FedEx or UPS.

130JDrvr

Never flew the Herc on AD. Just in Guard and Reserve. Get your rec guys to print out a seniority list for you.

Good Luck! Things should pick up by then...


Past...

ClutchCargo

There are so many former Herk guys here (FDX) that we should start a club. Don't know too many C-21 guys here. I'm sure that you must have flown with people here. Don't forget your UPT days.

Good Luck!

Magenta Line

Norcal, I do enjoy my job. However, when I get home from a 12 day trip, I'm ready for time off -- I don't want to see or smell an airplane. The fact that I'm near 50% seniority and at yr 8 makes for good QOL and paycheck.

WITH THAT SAID....... let me be the master of the obvious....

It's 2, sometimes 3 dudes travelling all over the world and when you show up in CDG, FRA, SFS, or HKG, you can always find other guys/gals who are not 'slam-clickers.' Don't get me wrong -- when it's time for work, we work. But we have a good time too!

Whistlin' Dan

Sure...Europe and China, the whole damn world in fact, won't mind letting FedEx have unrestricted access to their countries. Just because we don't let them operate in our country is no reason to think that they might not let us operate in theirs, is it?

"Express freight" is what happens between your sort center and the customers doorstep. What happens between one sort center and another is just ton-miles moving through the sky at Mach .80, or whatever traffic will allow.

I'm not afraid of "the 747's at all the other companies," they're a fact of life, that's all. Which of your routes is so unique that any of a dozen ACMI carrier couldn't be operating it in 30 days? Do you really think that a "scope clause" gives you a bulletproof shield against the entry of other carriers into your business? There are a MILLION ways to gut a scope clause. In fact, virtually EVERY legacy carrier had a scope clause in effect in the early 80's, yet each was able to grow "Regional Affiliates" or other LCC's over the last 20 years. This, while parking their mainline airplanes in the desert...

Don't be so smug about bankruptcy. Bankruptcies happen not because a company runs out of money, but because it's financially advantageous for a company to become bankrupt. Like, for example, when labor costs are out of line with market rates, or pension obligations grow too onerous.

Yes, a VIP could "have a stroke, divorce, retire to Fiji or otherwise decide to do something else with the cash." So could Fred Smith. (he just turned 60-what?) If that "something else" were precipitated by a downturn in the business, your next CEO might very well be somebody who absolutely hates pilots and is determined to bring your wages and QOL down to whatever the market will bear. Compare "Continental Airlines, 1978" to Continental Airlines, 1982" and you'll see what I mean. Or, you could ask one of your old-timers what Flying Tigers was like under Bob Prescott, compared to Steve Wolfe just a few years later.

Me? I'm still waiting for that call from Pan Am. Now there's a First-class outfit for ya! There will always be a Pan Am! Of course, if that doesn't work out, there's always American and United, although the upgrades are happening faster at Braniff and Eastern. What difference does it make? They're ALL First-class outfits...

Busboy

Based on the only correspondence that I have recieved from Fred Smith(2 red letters), I'm convinced that we already have a CEO that hates pilots. And, trust me, he is determined to bring our wages and QOL down to market level. He certainly didn't try to raise it, pre 9/11.

Obviously, you think the guy that started this thread should stay with his corporate job. Right? Fine. Just leave it at that. All the rest of the stuff you're talking about is pure conjecture, on your part.

Let's move on.

Whistlin' Dan

If you want FACTS, go here;

Welcome To Air Cargo World -- Home Page

If you want HISTORY, go here;

Air Transportation: History of Commercial Air Freight

Everything else on this board is conjecture.