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Old 07-07-2021 | 11:29 PM
  #61  
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Originally Posted by Hedley
They’ve been more reliable for me. A 737 can land in visibility that makes a rj divert. I sat in a CRJ in DEN following sim training waiting out a snow storm while SWA and United were able to depart. They aren’t frequently delayed for crew rest (this one is SkyWest fault and not the aircraft because they schedule min rest overnights and don’t have a pad if the crew gets in a little behind). When ATC starts restricting arrivals, the small rj’s are the first to get cut, while the 737 gets to go. On a recent commute I got to work because I went on SWA departing about the same time. There were thunderstorms affecting flow and all of the United 50 seat rj’s were severely delayed and I wouldn’t have made it if I relied on United. Southwest isn’t without their faults, but they’re more reliable than tired old 50 seaters when things go south.


With all your vast experience you should realize that UA gives all the good slot times to the mainline aircraft causing "all of the United 50 seat rj's to be severely delayed".
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Old 07-08-2021 | 10:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Paid2fly
With all your vast experience you should realize that UA gives all the good slot times to the mainline aircraft causing "all of the United 50 seat rj's to be severely delayed".
I understand how the system works. My beef is with the equipment that United has chosen to use on routes that are not very small markets. Not only are they uncomfortable, they contribute to system delays due to the higher number of slots that they have to use to move the same number of people as larger aircraft. Without exception the crews have been fantastic and do a great job with limited resources, but they can only do so much. We were delayed again on my current trip due to maintenance. I’m actually shocked the 50 seaters have held up as well as they have. They have been through countless cycles. The reliability is going down, demand is increasing, and it’s just time to replace the bulk of those planes with newer and larger aircraft.
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Old 07-09-2021 | 01:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Hedley
I understand how the system works. My beef is with the equipment that United has chosen to use on routes that are not very small markets. Not only are they uncomfortable, they contribute to system delays due to the higher number of slots that they have to use to move the same number of people as larger aircraft. Without exception the crews have been fantastic and do a great job with limited resources, but they can only do so much. We were delayed again on my current trip due to maintenance. I’m actually shocked the 50 seaters have held up as well as they have. They have been through countless cycles. The reliability is going down, demand is increasing, and it’s just time to replace the bulk of those planes with newer and larger aircraft.
So what’s the plan with those slots then? Give them away to the competition? No way they can fill 73’s 4-5 times a day.

Those 200/145’s need to die, but from a financial standpoint, I’ve heard OO needs only 7 passengers to break even on those POS 200’s (13 rev pax. on the 175). 73’s need over 70% capacity to break even. With no replacement for 50’s and no relief of 70-76’s, it’s going to be prime real estate season for ULCC’s.

Last edited by KirillTheThrill; 07-09-2021 at 01:43 PM.
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Old 07-09-2021 | 06:33 PM
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Originally Posted by KirillTheThrill
So what’s the plan with those slots then? Give them away to the competition? No way they can fill 73’s 4-5 times a day.

Those 200/145’s need to die, but from a financial standpoint, I’ve heard OO needs only 7 passengers to break even on those POS 200’s (13 rev pax. on the 175). 73’s need over 70% capacity to break even. With no replacement for 50’s and no relief of 70-76’s, it’s going to be prime real estate season for ULCC’s.
just because Skywest is breaking even doesn’t mean United is breaking even on the flight.
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Old 07-09-2021 | 07:44 PM
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Originally Posted by tonsterboy5
just because Skywest is breaking even doesn’t mean United is breaking even on the flight.
Yeah good point, I have no idea how many seats UA needs to make money on the deuce. For simplicity, 70% of an RJ2 is 35 pax. 70% of 738 is 113 pax. 4 slots that’s 140 rev pax to break even. 4 slots on a 738 is 452 pax. That means in our generic scenario UA has to sell 312 more tickets per day to keep those slots, that won’t happen. Reduce price’s to compete with ULCC’s? Now you have to sell more tickets to break even.

Not to mention, now they have no edge with offering 4-5 time slots a day. ULCC’s have to be licking their chops.
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Old 07-09-2021 | 07:59 PM
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Originally Posted by KirillTheThrill
So what’s the plan with those slots then? Give them away to the competition? No way they can fill 73’s 4-5 times a day.

Those 200/145’s need to die, but from a financial standpoint, I’ve heard OO needs only 7 passengers to break even on those POS 200’s (13 rev pax. on the 175). 73’s need over 70% capacity to break even. With no replacement for 50’s and no relief of 70-76’s, it’s going to be prime real estate season for ULCC’s.
My understanding (I may be wrong) for government subsidized Essential Air Service, the 200’s need Zero passengers to break even.
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Old 07-09-2021 | 09:23 PM
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Originally Posted by TransWorld
My understanding (I may be wrong) for government subsidized Essential Air Service, the 200’s need Zero passengers to break even.
this depends on the route, each airport is bid separately. The government cheese can be enough to support the flight, or no where near it.
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Old 07-09-2021 | 11:28 PM
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Originally Posted by TransWorld
My understanding (I may be wrong) for government subsidized Essential Air Service, the 200’s need Zero passengers to break even.
that is not correct
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Old 07-09-2021 | 11:34 PM
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Originally Posted by KirillTheThrill
So what’s the plan with those slots then? Give them away to the competition? No way they can fill 73’s 4-5 times a day.

Those 200/145’s need to die, but from a financial standpoint, I’ve heard OO needs only 7 passengers to break even on those POS 200’s (13 rev pax. on the 175). 73’s need over 70% capacity to break even. With no replacement for 50’s and no relief of 70-76’s, it’s going to be prime real estate season for ULCC’s.
the crucial flaw in this logic is that the 50 seaters get replaced with 737 on the same route and same frequency. That will not happen.

Many 50 seat destinations will be replaced by 70/76 seaters which in turn will be backfilled by A319 which will be backfilled by 737.

look at EWR as an example. The airport is runway constraint. The number of daily departures is not going to grow beyond what it is right now. So the only way to grow is to upgauge. That may mean that the ALB - EWR flight gets canned. Instead they add a new Flight to FLL for the same slot. And ALB gets a connection to IAD instead.

it’s all a big game of musical chairs.
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Old 07-10-2021 | 08:42 AM
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Originally Posted by TransWorld
My understanding (I may be wrong) for government subsidized Essential Air Service, the 200’s need Zero passengers to break even.
Nope, if there are 0 passengers for an extended period of time, the maximum subsidy per passenger gets exceeded and then the route gets defunded completely and nobody breaks even unless an exemption is issued to the airline for extenuating circumstances (such as COVID).

The airline needs to attract a certain amount of passengers at a certain price to reduce the subsidy per passenger ratio to keep the route viable.
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