What's the timeline look like for the draw down? Nobody can replace the Compass capacity overnight

 

I'm not the greatest at math but shouldn't this all equal out if the bock hours stay the same ? Serious question. Remember lines are awarded based on BLOCK HOURS not bases. No one knows exactly how this will all play out so let's see.

On the flip side Keep in mind attrition might increase due to guys in MSP refusing to commute to LAX . So this could actually Mean more movement as the super senior guys at the top will now try harder to move on rather than being comfortable and waiting on specific job offer. That's a tough commute I'm sure HUB to HUB

 

Delta has said they are systemwide shrinking MSP. That and they'll probably move OO 900s off the west coast as they take the remainder of their 175s and as the CZ planes are moved out there more

 

Does anyone have a clue as to when we can expect to see a vacancy? Will we have to wait until the supposed new hires show up or do you think we will see something here soon? I know FA's got one in the last few days...

 

This...Bastian has said the 9E CRJ-200's will go away by end of next year when the C series comes online. No plans to put that bird in MSP either with the MD88's going away in LGA. Buddy over at 9E said MSP is going to shrink for them too...moving potentially ExASA/GoJet birds to 9E. Plausible but I'll believe it when I see it, either way MSP has shrunk considerably on the mainline pilot base size since DL took over from NW.

 

Yeah block hours will remain the same (which should increase lines in LAX and SEA), and MSP based guys are probably going try to bail. But if they're Captains they'll be more likely to stay for a call from a legacy even with a commute. The senior FOs from MSP will take the LAX upgrade that they had originally bypassed holding out for MSP.

So my bet is, if we are actually going to keep the hiring up, and restart upgrades, it'll go to the top MSP FOs who are probably senior to a good percentage of CA in LAX and SEA.

Yes there will be attrition with people leaving but I'm going to bet it won't outpace the displaced people enough to see seniority increase in leaps and bounds. So if someone was on the boarder of holding a line in LAX they will likely stay at that realitive seniority until all this has worked itself out.

Think about this, we knew with losing 6 planes hiring would resume, there would be attrition, but we also knew seniority would slow down which is why people told to expect 2-3 months of reserve are coming up on 6 or more months. With the MSP crews moving out to LA/SEA it'll have a similar effect, especially if we are already fat on FOs in LA.

 

9 months of reserve and counting now FYI for those thinking of coming here...

 

I think your exaggerating a bit, Yes Delta is replacing smaller AC with
larger ones but then so may 9e. There is room for 125 CRJ 200's
why wouldn't Delta use them?

 

Why would anyone?

 

Ah ha! Someone agrees w me. Ya!