SkyHigh

Something to think about is that even the Eclipse has hundreds of firm orders already. I am sure that once deliveries start to take place that could jump to over 1000 if it isn't there already. Most of the other VLJ variants could have the same amount of demand. That all adds up to a formidable amount of planes. I am sure it would be noticed by the airlines.

I can't imagine them not being certified as single pilot. Their payloads are so small that the addition of another pilot would have a huge impact. Besides I don't like crew operations anyway. Especially on these modern fully automated planes, it embarrassing.

SkyHigh

Mach Knockers

I generally agree with all of this. My only additional thought is that we can possibly think of the VLJs as replacing the aging larger personal piston twin and turboprop aircraft like Chieftains, Cheyennes, Barons, Aerostars, etc. If you think of it like that, 1000 orders won't touch the airlines, effect-wise. Those replaced aircraft will be scrapped or cargoed.

I've met a few flying families over the years, usually pro-pilot couples or pro-husband, PPL wife who fly around in their, say, Cheyenne. I could see them easily replacing their bird with one of the VLJs. It's just the two of them, their two Bouviers and once in a while, a grown child. Just a thought.

Pilotpip

BINGO! Cessna hasn't made a twin in over 20 years and why buy a baron at over a million with a G-1000 when you can buy one of these for a little more. It will get you there faster, safer (this isn't accounting pilot stupidity, turbine engines are far more reliable), and access to fuel will be easier as 100LL becomes a thing of the past like the other aviation grade fuels.

My flight school is currently working with a couple VLJ producers including Cessna to develop training programs that will eventually be FITS certified. At the moment we're the only FITS approved program for the G-1000 in the country and we should have a similiar program certified for the Avidyne in the next few months. We are a factory training center for Cessna, Mooney, Beech, Symphony, and Diamond and the VLJ is the next logical step. I plan on keeping myself very informed on the development of these programs.

BTW, love the avatar MK.

Mach Knockers

Thanks, Pip. We made it yesterday, just for the board. Photoshop is a wonderful thing!

What's your flight school? That all sounds like it could be very interesting and lucrative.

Pilotpip

Skyline Aeronautics in St. Louis.

We're at Spirit of St. Louis airport, KSUS.

Mach Knockers

I've been there (SUS, not the school specifically) once, if I recall correctly. It has been a while.

ryane946

I am kind of biased (having worked for Adam aircraft), but I think the A700 is really going to find its place in the market. The Eclipse's engines were not powerful enough and as a result they have to redesign the entire aircraft around these larger engines.

The A700 sells for about $2 million dollars. It costs about $320 an hour to operate, but think about it... A piper seminole rents for about $160 an hour, goes 170kts, holds a few people. An A700 costs $320 an hour, goes twice as fast, holds twice as many people, and its a JET.

I think these VLJ's will really take off if 2 things happen:
Number 1, the price drops to under $1 million dollars. Now the door into private jet ownership has been opened.
2. They need to cruise at/above FL450. If you can get direct point to point navigation, you can save a good amount of time/fuel. I was a big supporter of this when I worked at Adam.

I see the VLJ market really taking off here in the future. If airline travel starts to become more and more like taking a bus, then the business travelers are going to jump ship over to VLJ's. The 2 things above would really help speed this process.

rickair7777

I don't know much about the A700, other than it's targeted market, but operations in the high FLs require some additional design considerations, which would presumably add to the cost of the aircraft.

The CRJ's (rated to F410) have had some VERY bad operational problems in the high FLs and many operators restrict the 200 to F370.

Pilotpip

Ryane, do those numbers take into account things like insurance? I seriously doubt we'll see many of them flying at an operating cost that is that low. I rarely saw single pilot jets being flown by only one pilot. It cost the owner/operator more to insure for single pilot ops than it did to put somebody in the right seat. Also, there are few aircraft that can carry full fuel, and full seats. One or the other. CJs and Premiers (closest thing out there to VLJs) have very little payload. If you want to fill the tanks on a CJ2 expect to carry two pax and their bags in addition to the crew.

Personally, I think Cessna's experience building aircraft of this size will pay huge dividends in the long run. Companies like Adam, and Eclipse will likely have some (more in the case of Eclipse) teething problems early on in production. That A-700 looks like a cool airplane. I hope it does well.

Geronimo4497

I think the statement about the older piston twins going away is correct. After the VLJ's have been in the market awhile and been proven, you will start to see the piston bangers defect over. Now, as for the first class passengers, they are already flying with the fractional companies, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. I'll wait about 2 or 3 years to predict the market, since it will have already begun. This IS aviation, so who really knows. My .02 cents.