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-   -   What are the odds that we survive this (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/covid19/128338-what-odds-we-survive.html)

full of luv 04-17-2020 02:31 PM


Originally Posted by Bwipilot (Post 3034533)
Take a look at Lincoln and the current GOP platforms.

Lincoln was for a strong union--not division between the north and the south. He wanted a strong US military--he knew he'd need it to keep the country together. Lincoln was against the expansion of slavery--and latter against all slavery. He was for the development of the west--and used the Homestead Act for citizens to accomplish that--without government support except title to the land. Lincoln was also for tariffs to protect domestic production.

Seems like the Republican party has returned to Lincoln's policies rather than abandoning them. I would counter that the Democrat party's economic platform is much closer to Karl Marx than JFK (who enacted tax cuts to stimulate the economy and worried about budget deficits).

Opinions, politics, and *******s--everybody has at least one. Some are full of $#!^

Thought experiment:
Imagine for a moment if JFK were resurrected as a hologram later this year in the middle of the DNC convention and gave his famous Inaugural speech of 1961 containing the line:

“My fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country.”

He would be boo'd and pilloried as a Republican of the worst kind.

Excargodog 04-17-2020 03:45 PM


Originally Posted by majorpilot (Post 3031157)

Social distancing is not responsible for a sudden inability to handle an oversupply of fresh corpses.

on any given day 15,000 people die in the US. Except for April 14 when they changed the criteria and we had a one day
increase to 6000 corona deaths, the corona deaths have not really been any huge increase over background, especially since they were disproportionately in the elderly who have a high background death rate anyway.

https://i.ibb.co/TR8h5KT/D3434-E73-5...3793-E3893.jpght

emersonbiguns 04-17-2020 06:40 PM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3034646)
....the corona deaths have not really been any huge increase over background...

Not if you spread it over the entire country. Why don't you run the numbers for NYC and see why they're stacking bodies in refrigerated trailers?

My reading shows a daily increase of 300%+ over almost an entire month. What do you come up with?

Excargodog 04-17-2020 09:35 PM


Originally Posted by emersonbiguns (Post 3034810)
Not if you spread it over the entire country. Why don't you run the numbers for NYC and see why they're stacking bodies in refrigerated trailers?

My reading shows a daily increase of 300%+ over almost an entire month. What do you come up with?

Cities have always been hit harder by airborne epidemics - dating back to the early days of Rome. On the other hand, if you are planning on having a heart attack or major trauma being in NYC near a hospital as opposed to someplace like Skagway Alaska is a huge advantage.

About a million people have a heart attack annually and 14% of them die of it. That’s 140,000 people. it’s even worse for major trauma. It kills 150,000 annually.

Bet you a fifth of Jeremiah Weed that coronavirus deaths in the US don’t hit 140,000 annually. Ever.

fcoolaiddrinker 04-17-2020 10:04 PM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3034921)
Cities have always been hit harder by airborne epidemics - dating back to the early days of Rome. On the other hand, if you are planning on having a heart attack or major trauma being in NYC near a hospital as opposed to someplace like Skagway Alaska is a huge advantage.

About a million people have a heart attack annually and 14% of them die of it. That’s 140,000 people. it’s even worse for major trauma. It kills 150,000 annually.

Bet you a fifth of Jeremiah Weed that coronavirus deaths in the US don’t hit 140,000 annually. Ever.

The flaw in the argument that we should have just let the virus just run it’s course is nobody will ever know how that would have played out? If the majority of the population became sick in roughly the same period of time the economy would have tanked anyhow. We do know that. I’ll bet you it would have topped 140,000 deaths had we done nothing. Fortunately we’ll never know.

Punkah Louvre 04-18-2020 05:39 AM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3034921)
Cities have always been hit harder by airborne epidemics - dating back to the early days of Rome. On the other hand, if you are planning on having a heart attack or major trauma being in NYC near a hospital as opposed to someplace like Skagway Alaska is a huge advantage.

About a million people have a heart attack annually and 14% of them die of it. That’s 140,000 people. it’s even worse for major trauma. It kills 150,000 annually.

Bet you a fifth of Jeremiah Weed that coronavirus deaths in the US don’t hit 140,000 annually. Ever.

Also; cite your sources. the CDC states 647,000 Americans die from heartdisease each year—that's 1 in every 4 deaths.
Crucially; I can't catch your heart attack. You cant give yours to 3 other people...
The point that your analysis misses is that the covid19 deaths are net new deaths. not reclassification of an existing death rate. granted; c19 tends (though the numbers are normalizing around 49 years old now..) towards mortality in older and sicker populations; Cardio Vascular deaths tend towards poorer communities. Left unchecked, with no mitigation strategies and credible forecasts predict anything up to 2 million net new deaths.
It sucks. No one wants to be broke, sad watching reruns in pajamas. everyone understands the economic costs of a shutdown; but the low number of deaths is a reflection of the success of the lockdowns. it's the lesser of two enormous evils...

senecacaptain 04-18-2020 07:09 AM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3034921)
Cities have always been hit harder by airborne epidemics - dating back to the early days of Rome. On the other hand, if you are planning on having a heart attack or major trauma being in NYC near a hospital as opposed to someplace like Skagway Alaska is a huge advantage.

About a million people have a heart attack annually and 14% of them die of it. That’s 140,000 people. it’s even worse for major trauma. It kills 150,000 annually.

Bet you a fifth of Jeremiah Weed that coronavirus deaths in the US don’t hit 140,000 annually. Ever.

We have 37k deaths which basically is Jan to April time period. I hope you are correct.

emersonbiguns 04-18-2020 07:58 AM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3034921)
Cities have always been hit harder by airborne epidemics - dating back to the early days of Rome. On the other hand, if you are planning on having a heart attack or major trauma being in NYC near a hospital as opposed to someplace like Skagway Alaska is a huge advantage.

About a million people have a heart attack annually and 14% of them die of it. That’s 140,000 people. it’s even worse for major trauma. It kills 150,000 annually.

Bet you a fifth of Jeremiah Weed that coronavirus deaths in the US don’t hit 140,000 annually. Ever.

But at least I know when the other guy is having a heart attack so I can stay away from him and not catch one too.

Chief Brody 04-18-2020 02:18 PM


Originally Posted by emersonbiguns (Post 3035144)
But at least I know when the other guy is having a heart attack so I can stay away from him and not catch one too.

Than stay home and curl up in the fetal position The grown ups will get the economy going for you.

Burton78 04-18-2020 02:28 PM


Originally Posted by Chief Brody (Post 3035421)
Than stay home and curl up in the fetal position The grown ups will get the economy going for you.


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