What are the odds that we survive this
 

Not to sound pessimistic, but the reality of “what if” is starting to take root and I’m starting to wonder how long an airline of our size could realistically expect to survive the $h!t storm we currently find ourselves in. Up until this point, I’ve been pretty confident in our ability to weather an economic downturn/recession but the magnitude of this particular event has me starting to doubt. I don’t have apps out and the thought of getting my logbooks back in order and preparing for interviews is depressing. I’m starting to dread logging on to comply to read the company memo’s.

100%.

And anyone who suggests concessions to Indigo will be met by a swift kick in the nuts by me.

I'll put it in perspective, all three legacy airlines are saying they can't survive longer than 45 days at this rate. None of the ULCC's are going to be able to be in business longer than April. Allegiant, Frontier, Spirit, JetBlue, Alaska, Hawaiian, SWA, DAL, UAL and American....ALL OF US are royally screwed unless Trump shuts down domestic travel and congress passes the bail out. Even if that happens that only extends life another six months for all of us.

Dude, puh-lease.

This sucks and the Trump deranged media is to blame. It can be statistically proven pandemics worse than this have occured. We will recover within a year. How much we will recover is yet to be seen, but F9 is best poised to weather this.

Keep your head in the sand, ostrich.

I think it’s funny that in the first few responses there has been both doom and gloom and eternal optimism. The reality is likely somewhere in the middle. Certainly this pandemic won’t grip the world for more than 18 months. However none of us know what those next 18 months look like. If the FDA and CDC can find a temporary solution that cures people (or at least alleviates symptoms) soon then most airlines will likely survive. On a positive note, it’s looking like that is already potentially in the works.

On the other hand if this national plea for no travel and social distancing continues for the next 18 months, no airline will survive. I’m a natural pessimist but I believe that Frontier will make it because I think that fairly soon there will be a better way to treat this thing with existing drugs until a vaccine is created. That said, I think the next 6 months are going to suck for all and I honestly expect furloughs and downgrades at most airlines. I’m honestly shocked that the WARN notices haven’t gone out yet.

What a ridiculous post.

Frontier’s owner, owner of Indigo, couldn’t disagree with you more. He thinks it’s a good time to airline shop.

And hey Frontiers a privately held company. How the hell do you know how long they can last.

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/articl...a7Q6RytIMjlcIo

If we have roughly 700million in cash in the back, we should be able to survive for about 10 months. (My bar napkin math)

Within 10 months we either need to see demand rising again or a Gov't bailout.

I expect both.

Just being devils advocate and not really answering the original posters question. One might think....why even take the bailout money at all? The planes are leased, all the help is contracted out, and the ones that aren't just got new contracts. Why not file for bankruptcy, close shop, and start all over. Re-lease the same aircraft from Airbus (because they are hurting too, so they will take the deal), hire pilots again (TSA and Compass already closed doors, plus all the furloughs that will come, and of course us), and get a crap contract (because we are all greedy and any money will do when you're unemployed). Just an idea. Don't think they would ever do that but......Butthert and Not A Real Job both said "boo hoo, sky is falling this will be better in a month." So who knows.

In reality though, I think F9 will pull through, but we wont be F9 due to merger. Also, while I think it's a great idea to keep the logbook updated, I don't know how many jobs there will be for you to apply to. No airline will be hiring for a bit and although corporate is doing well now, I imagine that too will take a hit as companies are reeling from the economic impact. Like I said though, couldn't hurt, might help. Best of luck to everybody and if any help is needed ALPA has a lot of good resources which I'm sure you've been getting emailed about daily.

I believe 100%. After two weeks or so and the sky is not falling, the public is going to get very resistive. This is a massive over reaction.

Frontier like other airlines have made record profits for the last 6-7 years. They can more than survive a few months of declined revenue. A couple of bad months aren’t going to put them out of business. I think April and May and going to be rough, but I’m hoping by June things will slowly start going back to normal.

That article looks quite recent, I can’t tell when it was originally published but it shows updated just earlier this morning. The most encouraging news I’ve read specifically regarding Indigo (and thus Frontier).

I think Frankie my be looking for "opportunities" to grow........

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This is the first positive spin I‘ve seen but it makes sense especially from an investor point of view.

I am not worried about F9 surviving. I just don't want to see furloughs. I admittedly could survive a couple months without pay but it would obviously suck.

We will furlough. We are cutting 70% of may flights. This is unprecedented. Hold on tight

Agreed. As someone said to me, “it’s hard to change direction once you set course on the furlough ship. The company has to make their best estimate on how long the reduction in flying will last and how many furloughs it will require before taking action. They probably already know they’ll be furloughs. They’ll take the COLA requests first and then after that it may take multiple rounds to fine tune it.”

There are so many variables at play. The markets change by the hour, the lockdowns continue to increase, no word on any truly promising treatments or vaccine and Congress is trying to approve a financial aid package, in the form of loans, that will include aid for airlines. They’re probably waiting for more information, just like every other company. I expect the furlough decision to come no sooner than when we have the COLA requests accepted and a clear picture of what aid, if any, that we’ll receive from the government.

I’m curious, why do you think Frontier is best poised to handle this crisis?

can't speak for him, but on the plus side, good balance sheet, low casm, low international exposure, no business travelers.

Possibly last in line for a bailout.

This won't be over soon. This situation gets worse by the day. No one will want to be on airplanes for a while.
Delta seems the most proactive, Spirit is in denial, and everyone else is in between.

Where are you finding data on Frontier’s balance sheet?

He said airline stock not airline shop.

Internal company memos discussing what’s going on.

Yeah, I have access to the memos. Saying we have X amount in cash is a lot different than a balance sheet. What are the debts? obligations? Etc.

As a Spirit Pilot, yeah..... We still have classes in April.... I just don't get it.........

BTW, if/when we furlough... consider your fellow pilots not flying before you pick up a trip from the premium add folder. It’s one thing to do it during contract negotiations but it’s a completely different thing when there are guys furloughed against their will.

Agreed. This is where I’m looking for the union to negotiate a credit cap for a period of time. As well as lower the min credit. We do have some protections with the average line value. I believe it’s at 85ish. Possibly lower that as well. Tell your reps. I already have.

anyone who did during negotiations was a scumbag... this would super scumbag

It will be the same db's

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there will always be those ppl that only look out for themselves. Sad but true.

you think frontier is only burins $70 Million/month? United CEO says they're burning (loosing) $100 Million/DAY!!! I bet Frontier is closer to $5-10 Million a day

Delta is burning up $50 million a day.

Delta Air Lines Internal Memo: We are burning $50M in cash a day ? IdahoReporter.com

Well, I did say it was my bar napkin math! But, im sure we burn less money than that a day. Our entire company is built on the principle of low cost operation.

There is a good write up on our FB page about a conference call today. Good info!

Mind posting or pm'ing me? I don't have facebook.

Stolen from Facebook

Zero demand at the moment
Cutting 90% in April.
Planning to run 35% in May.
Parking all aircraft except NEO at Roswell
Some of our partners fall into the “airline” but not all.
If we accept the grant, we will not furlough through September.
If you have taken a leave, they may come back to you with a better program.
Company is talking to ALPA about better programs for leaves.
“Expanded leave offering” within 24-48 hours
220 million for us, if we take the grant.
600 million for F9 if they take the loans. (Strings attached on the loans) “no free lunch” on the loans
Actively swapping HEPA filters on planes
Wear a mask if you want, F9 is providing
“Drawing down 90% of schedule should help in keeping people well”
Good cash position coming into this, but nothing coming in so need to preserve.
Biffle is getting no salary April May June
Tough times, but he’s optimistic
We had one of the highest margins and best cash positions of any airline
Lowest cost of any airline
“Our cost advantage, even after borrowing 600 million, is going to explode”
“Confident we will be back to 100% by fall, and there will be lots of opportunities for F9”

Ok.....PM sent

excellent recap. I just wanted to expand on the grants with the way I understood. Biffle said that the grants aren’t really a freebie. He said that the feds are basically giving the airlines the grant money instead of paying unemployment on the furloughed employees. So the feds would be paying that money either way. So every airline will take the grants. He was trying to reinforce the fact that it is not “free” money the way that it was advertised in the package from the media. So yes, my understanding is we will be using the grant money on the front end to keep payroll, instead of having it paid for unemployment.

I personally would be very surprised if Franke would give the Fed any chance to swindle any of Indigo’s prized equity in F9.......seems like a huge and avoidable risk. Just my opinion.

yea I totally agree. Based on the conference call sounds like we don’t need the loans nor will we take them. But they will use the grant money instead of paying unemployment.