MCDUie

Not to sound pessimistic, but the reality of “what if” is starting to take root and I’m starting to wonder how long an airline of our size could realistically expect to survive the $h!t storm we currently find ourselves in. Up until this point, I’ve been pretty confident in our ability to weather an economic downturn/recession but the magnitude of this particular event has me starting to doubt. I don’t have apps out and the thought of getting my logbooks back in order and preparing for interviews is depressing. I’m starting to dread logging on to comply to read the company memo’s.

ToddChavez

100%.

And anyone who suggests concessions to Indigo will be met by a swift kick in the nuts by me.

Desert Sky

I'll put it in perspective, all three legacy airlines are saying they can't survive longer than 45 days at this rate. None of the ULCC's are going to be able to be in business longer than April. Allegiant, Frontier, Spirit, JetBlue, Alaska, Hawaiian, SWA, DAL, UAL and American....ALL OF US are royally screwed unless Trump shuts down domestic travel and congress passes the bail out. Even if that happens that only extends life another six months for all of us.

ToddChavez

Dude, puh-lease.

This sucks and the Trump deranged media is to blame. It can be statistically proven pandemics worse than this have occured. We will recover within a year. How much we will recover is yet to be seen, but F9 is best poised to weather this.

Desert Sky

Keep your head in the sand, ostrich.

CantStayAway

I think it’s funny that in the first few responses there has been both doom and gloom and eternal optimism. The reality is likely somewhere in the middle. Certainly this pandemic won’t grip the world for more than 18 months. However none of us know what those next 18 months look like. If the FDA and CDC can find a temporary solution that cures people (or at least alleviates symptoms) soon then most airlines will likely survive. On a positive note, it’s looking like that is already potentially in the works.

On the other hand if this national plea for no travel and social distancing continues for the next 18 months, no airline will survive. I’m a natural pessimist but I believe that Frontier will make it because I think that fairly soon there will be a better way to treat this thing with existing drugs until a vaccine is created. That said, I think the next 6 months are going to suck for all and I honestly expect furloughs and downgrades at most airlines. I’m honestly shocked that the WARN notices haven’t gone out yet.

Trowserchilli

What a ridiculous post.

Frontier’s owner, owner of Indigo, couldn’t disagree with you more. He thinks it’s a good time to airline shop.

And hey Frontiers a privately held company. How the hell do you know how long they can last.

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/articl...a7Q6RytIMjlcIo

Aero1900

If we have roughly 700million in cash in the back, we should be able to survive for about 10 months. (My bar napkin math)

Within 10 months we either need to see demand rising again or a Gov't bailout.

I expect both.

therapysession

Just being devils advocate and not really answering the original posters question. One might think....why even take the bailout money at all? The planes are leased, all the help is contracted out, and the ones that aren't just got new contracts. Why not file for bankruptcy, close shop, and start all over. Re-lease the same aircraft from Airbus (because they are hurting too, so they will take the deal), hire pilots again (TSA and Compass already closed doors, plus all the furloughs that will come, and of course us), and get a crap contract (because we are all greedy and any money will do when you're unemployed). Just an idea. Don't think they would ever do that but......Butthert and Not A Real Job both said "boo hoo, sky is falling this will be better in a month." So who knows.

In reality though, I think F9 will pull through, but we wont be F9 due to merger. Also, while I think it's a great idea to keep the logbook updated, I don't know how many jobs there will be for you to apply to. No airline will be hiring for a bit and although corporate is doing well now, I imagine that too will take a hit as companies are reeling from the economic impact. Like I said though, couldn't hurt, might help. Best of luck to everybody and if any help is needed ALPA has a lot of good resources which I'm sure you've been getting emailed about daily.

Fast90

I believe 100%. After two weeks or so and the sky is not falling, the public is going to get very resistive. This is a massive over reaction.